Troubled World Economy

▪ 1999

by Robert J. Samuelson

      As 1998 drew to a close, the world was caught in the grips of the most serious financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Starting in Thailand in July 1997, the crisis spread spasmodically to much of the rest of Asia, parts of Latin America, and Russia over the next 18 months. By the end of the year, it posed a direct threat to the U.S. economy, which was in the midst of the eighth year of an expansion that had sent the stock market to record levels. Somewhat less menaced was Europe, which was on the verge of adopting a single currency (the euro) in 1999 for 11 countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, The Netherlands, Austria, Finland, Ireland, and Luxembourg).

      Some figures convey the magnitude of the collapse. In 1998 the economies of Indonesia, South Korea, and Thailand were expected to shrink by roughly 15%, 7%, and 8%, respectively, according to estimates by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In 1996—the last year before the crisis broke—those economies, as measured by their gross domestic product (GDP), had grown 8% (Indonesia), 7.1% (South Korea), and 5.5% (Thailand). Meanwhile, Japan's economy had slipped into its worst post-World War II recession, with GDP expected to drop 2.8% in 1998. Economic growth in China and much of Latin America was also slowing, though it was unclear whether they would actually experience recessions (drops in output).

      The economic crisis confounded the received wisdom of only a few years earlier that had celebrated the "Asian miracle." In this view Asian societies—led by Japan—had devised a distinctive formula for economic growth that promised to make them the envy of the world. The formula seemed unassailable—a strong work ethic, an emphasis on education, high savings and investment rates, and successful export industries. The shrewd combination of government direction and reliance on the market seemed to outperform purer market societies (the U.S.) or strict command-and-control economies (the former Soviet Union).

      On one level the unraveling of the Asian miracle could be explained. It was always part myth. As economist Paul Krugman of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and others pointed out, Asia's rapid growth depended heavily on those high savings and investment rates. (Between 1990 and 1996, investment as a share of GDP was 37% in South Korea, 32% in Indonesia, and 41% in Thailand. The comparable U.S. figure was 17%.) High investment enabled these countries to industrialize, but returns on the investments (their profitability and efficiency) were not particularly high by international standards. What this suggested was that once the most basic investments were exhausted, Asian countries would have trouble sustaining their high levels of economic growth.

      Such a situation did not have to trigger a crisis, however. Two factors did so: first, belief in the Asian miracle was widespread, bolstering confidence about the region's future; and second, this optimism—along with the relaxation of government restrictions against foreign investment (usually referred to as "capital controls")—generated huge inflows of overseas funds as outside investors tried to profit from the miracle. These funds arrived as bank loans, portfolio investment (for example: mutual funds buying stocks of local companies), bond purchases, and direct investment (building factories or buying control of local firms). Between 1990 and 1996, five Asian countries (Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand) received almost $300 billion in foreign investment.

      The result was boom—and bust. As foreign funds poured in, local economies flourished. Dollars and yen were converted into local currencies (the Thai baht, the South Korean won, or the Indonesian rupiah) and spent. With their bulging foreign exchange reserves (those same dollars and yen), the countries imported more of everything, from industrial machinery to luxury cars. Once disenchantment occurred, however, the process reversed itself. Investors saw that much of the capital inflow had been wasted; too many office buildings or factories had been built to provide attractive profits or, on loans, to repay interest and principal. Consequently, those investors withdrew funds or, if that was impossible, decided against new commitments. In 1996 the same five Asian countries recorded capital inflows of about $73 billion; in 1997 they had capital outflows of about $11 billion.

      The change pushed most of the five countries into recession (the Philippines was least affected). As investors rushed to convert local currencies back into dollars, yen, or Deutsche Marks, the countries faced a dilemma: whether to raise interest rates sharply to persuade investors to keep funds in local currencies or to allow deep drops in their exchange rates. Both approaches hurt. High interest rates punished local companies and depressed spending, and lower exchange rates made imports more costly and also harmed local companies by making repayment of dollar loans more expensive (in South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand, local banks and firms had all borrowed heavily in dollars). In practice, Asian countries experienced both higher interest rates and lower exchange rates. Their imports from other countries plunged because they could no longer afford to pay for them.

      The crisis initially spread on investors' fears that one country's problems were shared by others. Therefore, what started in Thailand in July 1997 shifted to Malaysia in August, to Indonesia in August and September, and to South Korea in November and December. All seemed to suffer from "crony capitalism"—practices that directed investment funds to favoured businesses or industries that, on the whole, could not use them productively. Later the economic downdraft was moved by other forces. Japan's economy had been weak since the early 1990s, reflecting the legacy of the so-called bubble economy of the late 1980s (stock and real-estate prices rose to unsustainable levels, and their subsequent collapse left banks with many bad loans). Southeast Asia's slump then pushed Japan into recession, because about 40% of its exports went to the region.

      Finally, the slump lowered the worldwide demand for raw materials and their prices. Between January 1997 and year-end 1998, oil dropped from about $26 a barrel to about $12 and a bushel of wheat from $3.85 to $2.51. These declines hurt countries that were heavily dependent on raw material exports for their foreign exchange earnings (for example: Russia, Mexico, and Venezuela for oil; Argentina, Australia, and Canada for wheat; Brazil and Colombia for coffee; and Chile for copper). Lower export earnings helped trigger the crisis in Russia in August, when the country defaulted on much of its debt, and they also exposed other, poorer countries—particularly in Latin America—to the pressures of capital flight first experienced in Asia. Global investors became fearful that they would suffer losses, and their fears were often shared by natives—Brazilians, Russians, or Argentines—who converted their local currencies into dollars as a hedge against devaluation.

      At the year's end the outlook for the world economy remained unclear. Almost all the Asian countries in crisis had received large loans from the International Monetary Fund and other international agencies in return for commitments to improve bank regulation and curb unproductive investment projects. Unemployment in those countries had jumped sharply. Meanwhile, the U.S. and European economies continued to grow, but financial markets (for stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange) had grown more erratic as investors became more nervous. The danger remained that eroded confidence—which might hurt consumer spending and business investment—and lower exports might cause a business slump in either the U.S. or Europe. With much of the world already in recession, that was a chilling prospect.

Robert J. Samuelson writes a syndicated column for Newsweek and The Washington Post Writers Group and is the author of The Good Life and Its Discontents: The American Dream in the Age of Entitlement, 1945-1995.

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