Military Affairs

▪ 2009

Introduction

       Russia and Georgia fought a short, intense war in 2008, fueling global fears of a new Cold War. On August 7 Georgia launched an aerial bombardment and ground attacks against its breakaway province of South Ossetia. Russia responded by sending thousands of troops, citing the need to protect 70,000 Russians in South Ossetia. The fighting spread rapidly to the rest of Georgia. The U.S. and NATO expressed solidarity with Georgia and voiced concerns over Russia's behaviour in the conflict. By August 16 both Georgia and Russia had signed a peace deal brokered by French Pres. Nicolas Sarkozy. Shortly after fighting ceased, Russia officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia, further agitating Georgia and some Western governments. Although UN agencies estimated that more than 190,000 people had been displaced by the conflict, there were no reliable estimates of the numbers of civilians killed.

WMD, Arms Control, and Disarmament

      The Convention on Cluster Munitions, a treaty banning cluster bombs, was approved by 107 countries in May. The use of cluster munitions, which scatter small bomblets across a target area, had been criticized by human rights groups because many of them failed to explode on impact and killed or maimed civilians who encountered them later. Major manufacturers and users of these weapons, including China, Russia, and the U.S., did not participate in treaty negotiations.

      Russia announced in November that it intended to deploy a new generation of highly accurate short-range missiles in the Baltic region to counter the extension of a U.S. defense shield to Central Europe. This followed announcements earlier in 2008 that the U.S. would install 10 antimissile missiles in silos in Poland and build a radar station in the Czech Republic as part of its Ballistic Missile Defense System to defend North America and NATO against ballistic missile attack.

Conflicts

Africa.

      A peace deal between the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and various rebel groups in the eastern part of the country fell apart in August. Despite the presence of approximately 17,000 UN peacekeepers in the DRC, fighting in 2008 led to the displacement of more than 250,000 people and an untold number of casualties.

      The UN estimated that approximately 300,000 civilians had fled the fighting in The Sudan's war-torn Darfur region in 2008, and international peacekeepers and aid workers found themselves increasingly at risk from attack. Only about half of the 26,000 troops authorized for the joint UN–African Union force had been deployed by year's end. (See Sidebar (Combating the Crisis in Darfur ).)

      The UN Security Council voted in June to allow countries to send warships into Somalia's territorial waters to combat the growing piracy problem. Dozens of commercial ships were hijacked off Somalia's 28,900-km (1,800-mi)-long coast during the year; the problem was highlighted in September when pirates seized a Ukrainian ship carrying tanks and other weapons and was underscored in November when a Saudi oil tanker was captured.

The Americas.

      The 9,000-strong left-wing Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia ( FARC) continued its 44-year-old struggle against the government but suffered more than 1,500 desertions in 2008 as the result of a government amnesty plan. FARC commander Manuel Marulanda (Marulanda Velez, Manuel ) died in March, and two additional members of FARC's seven-man senior command were killed during the year.

Middle East.

      In Iraq the level of violence declined considerably throughout the year following the so-called surge of 2007, when U.S. Pres. George W. Bush committed an additional 30,000 U.S. troops. The number of Iraqis killed in war-related incidents in October was 521, the fewest since the U.S.-led invasion in 2003; the number of U.S. forces killed in October was 14, nearly equaling a monthly wartime low of 13 set in July. Analysts also attributed much of the decline in violence to the dispersal of ethnically mixed neighbourhoods, where Sunni and Shiʿite Arabs previously lived side by side. About 550 Australian combat troops were withdrawn from Iraq in June, fulfilling an election promise by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to end his country's military commitment to the war. South Korea withdrew the last of its 600 troops from Iraq in December, ending what was once the third largest mission there (after the U.S. and the U.K.). In addition, Japan ended its air force's mission to ferry supplies for the coalition forces in Iraq. The deployment was Japan's first to a combat zone since World War II. By the end of 2008, Iraqi authorities had taken over responsibility from coalition forces for security in 13 of the country's 18 provinces.

      In December Israel launched numerous air and missile attacks on targets across the Gaza Strip, killing hundreds of Palestinians. Militant Palestinians responded by firing rockets into Israel, striking as far as Beersheba, the farthest into Israel that a Palestinian missile had ever reached. The fighting erupted after Hamas, which had controlled the Gaza Strip since 2007, ended a cease-fire declared in June.

South and Central Asia.

      The war against the Taliban in Afghanistan intensified and widened during 2008. U.S. unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) were increasingly used to attack suspected Taliban targets in Pakistan's tribal region close to the Afghan border. Such attacks were credited with killing Taliban leaders, notably Mohammad Omar in October. Pakistanis, however, complained that civilians were often being killed by the UAV attacks and that such incursions were a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty. U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan were criticized by the Afghan government and human rights groups for not doing enough to limit the numbers of civilians killed—an estimated 173 in the first eight months of 2008—by attacks on suspected Taliban targets. An additional 367 civilians died from attacks by insurgent forces during the same period. Pakistan increasingly became a target of attacks by extremist groups. In September, for example, a suicide bomber detonated a truck filled with an estimated 1,000 kg (2,200 lb) of explosives in front of a hotel in Islamabad, killing more than 50 people. This was the deadliest and the largest such attack (in terms of the amount of explosives used) in Pakistan's capital.

      Government forces and Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) separatists fought a series of pitched battles following Sri Lanka's withdrawal from a cease-fire agreement in January 2008. Although the Sri Lankan military captured several LTTE strong points, including a naval base, the Tigers were still able to mount air and ground offensives. The government's promise to destroy the insurgency by year's end was not realized. The conflict had killed more than 70,000 people since 1983, when civil war broke out in the Tigers' fight for an independent homeland.

Southeast Asia.

      Government negotiators in the Philippines reached an agreement in July with Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels on the southern island of Mindanao to end their four-decade-old struggle for a self-governing state. The deal fell apart the next month, however, after Christian politicians objected. Renewed fighting left more than 300 people dead, including dozens of soldiers.

Military Technology

      In July the Zephyr-6, a British-built solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) set an unofficial world endurance record for a flight by an unmanned aircraft, staying aloft for more than 82 hours and running through the night on batteries that it had recharged in sunlight. Military officials hoped that similar UAVs could loiter over an area, collecting reconnaissance data for extended periods.

      The U.S. Navy chartered the world's first kite-assisted cargo ship to carry military supplies as part of the Pentagon's efforts to reduce its fuel usage. The MV Beluga SkySails was equipped with a sky sail (a giant computer-controlled kite that uses wind power to provide additional propulsion). It was estimated that the sky sail could reduce fuel costs by up to 30%.

      With soldiers on the battlefield increasingly laden with up to 9 kg (20 lb) of batteries to power everything from radios to GPS systems, there was a growing need to reduce their burden. The U.S. Department of Defense concluded its Wearable Power contest in October, and the winner was a joint venture by German company Smart Fuel Cell and DuPont. Their contest entry was a 3.8-kg (8.3-lb) combination of methanol-fuel-cell and rechargeable batteries, which was able to provide all the electrical power that an infantry soldier required for four days.

Armed Forces and Politics

      At its April summit in Romania, the leaders of NATO's 26 members agreed to invite Albania and Croatia to become members, declared that Macedonia would be invited to join as soon as it resolved the dispute with Greece over its name, and hinted that some day Georgia and Ukraine would become members. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin reacted to the news by warning that Russia would view Georgian and Ukrainian membership in NATO as a security threat.

      In May Japan's parliament passed a new law allowing Japan to deploy military satellites for nonaggressive missions, including communications and surveillance; the law ended a 40-year self-imposed ban on Japan's military use of space. The use of weapons in space remained banned under Japanese law.

      In June France announced the biggest overhaul in its military in 14 years. Under the plan the 320,000-strong armed forces would be reduced by 54,000 personnel, and 50 military bases would be closed. France also announced that it would rejoin NATO's integrated military command, from which it withdrew in 1966.

      U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates accepted the resignations of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley and Secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynne in June after a report highlighted significant oversights in the air force's nuclear security practices. These included a Pentagon admission that it had mistakenly shipped four nuclear-weapon fuses to Taiwan in August 2006. The air force later announced that it was setting up a new Global Strike Command to control all of its nuclear weapons.

      The Colombian government fired 3 generals and 24 other soldiers in October in response to the alleged extrajudicial killings of 11 men earlier in the year. The scandal led to the resignation of the commander of the Colombian army, Gen. Mario Montoya.

      In October, South Korean and U.S. personnel began the first-ever search in the demilitarized zone (DMZ) dividing North and South Korea for the remains of troops killed in the Korean War (1950–53). An estimated 13,000 South Korean and 2,000 U.S. troops were believed to be buried in the DMZ.

Military and Society

      Israel sentenced a soldier to 19 days in jail for uploading a photograph of his military base to the social networking Web site Facebook. This was believed to be the first such conviction for an Israeli soldier. It followed a decision made by the U.S. in March to ban Google from photographing details of U.S. military bases for its widely used map services, including Google Earth and Street View. Governments in many countries were increasingly concerned that images and other data available on the Internet could compromise security.

      The South African National Defence Force (SANDF) suffered a growing personnel crisis in 2008 owing to both AIDS-related illnesses and the exodus of technical staff to better-paying civilian jobs. An estimated 14,000 positions were unfilled in the armed forces, which made the vacancy rate 15.3%; 23% of SANDF members were HIV-positive. In May a South African high court overturned a SANDF policy barring HIV-positive people from joining the military.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2008

Introduction

The Troubles ended, but conflict remained, especially in such hot spots as Iraq, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and the Darfur region of The Sudan; meanwhile, China successfully tested its first antisatellite weapon, and Russia launched the first of a new generation of nuclear-powered attack submarines.

      The longest-running conflict in the history of the British army came to an end in July 2007. The army was originally sent to Northern Ireland in 1969, following violent clashes between Roman Catholics and Protestants. Ironically, when the soldiers were deployed, it was anticipated that they would be in Northern Ireland for just a few weeks. The conflict (which came to be known as the Troubles) dragged on, and British troops spent 38 years supporting the police in Northern Ireland. More than 300,000 military personnel had been involved in Operation Banner, as the campaign was named. The Troubles cost the lives of 763 service members, more than 3,600 civilians, and untold numbers of paramilitaries on both sides.

WMD, Arms Control, and Disarmament

       India and Pakistan signed an agreement in February aimed at reducing the risk of accidental nuclear war between the two countries. In July, Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin announced that his country would no longer observe the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty, which limited the number of heavy weapons NATO countries and the Soviet Union (and its successor states) could deploy between the Atlantic Ocean and the Ural Mountains. The suspension meant that Russia would no longer exchange data on military deployments or permit NATO to inspect its forces. Among the reasons given was Russia's concern over U.S. plans to base part of a missile-defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.

Conflicts

Africa.

      In January U.S. aircraft attacked targets in southern Somalia suspected of harbouring supporters of the al-Qaeda terrorist network. This was the first overt use of U.S. forces in the country, which had not had an effective government in 16 years, since the UN peacekeeping operation of 1993. Throughout 2007 militias of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) and other insurgent groups clashed with the forces of Somalia's interim government. Approximately 1,600 Ugandan troops were sent to the country's capital, Mogadishu, as part of a planned 8,000-strong African Union (AU) force to support the government, but other African countries failed to send troops by year's end. Additionally, Ethiopia had thousands of soldiers in Somalia to support government forces but said that their troops would not leave until the AU force was up to full strength.

      Approximately 200,000 people died and more than 2,000,000 were displaced during the four-year-old war ravaging the Darfur region of The Sudan. Rebels representing several black African groups had been fighting government forces and ethnic Arab militias for control of the region. The conflict spread across the border into Chad and the Central African Republic. Although a 7,000-strong AU mission that was struggling to protect civilians had been scheduled to be supplanted by a UN Security Council-approved force of 26,000 peacekeepers by the end of the year, the government of The Sudan delayed this action.

Caucasus.

      The level of violence declined in Chechnya, where separatists had been fighting for an independent state since 1994. One of the last remaining rebel leaders, Rustam Basayev, was killed by Russian security forces in August.

Middle East.

      The year 2007 became the deadliest for U.S. forces in Iraq since the invasion in 2003 to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein. More than 900 troops were killed, compared with the previous worst year (2004), when about 850 deaths were recorded. The monthly casualty rate declined rapidly after June, however, once the U.S. completed sending an additional 30,000 troops. At that point, with approximately 160,000 U.S. soldiers in the country, numerous operations were staged against al-Qaeda-related groups and Shiʿite militia groups. Although there was no single reliable source for statistics, observers generally agreed that the number of violent civilian deaths in Iraq fell dramatically following the “surge” in U.S. forces. Statistics showed that fewer than 900 civilians died violent deaths in October, compared with nearly 2,000 in January.

      Armed Palestinian groups of Hamas and Fatah supporters within the Gaza Strip fought a series of internecine battles during the year. Israel launched air strikes and ground operations into Gaza in an effort to quell the almost daily rocket attacks Palestinian militants directed at Israeli civilians across the border.

      Throughout 2007 Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) rebels intensified their campaign for an independent homeland, killing dozens of civilians and military personnel in Turkey. The PKK (operating from bases within Turkey and in Iraq) had waged a violent campaign for a Kurdish homeland since 1984, resulting in more than 30,000 deaths. Turkey boosted the number of troops it had along the border with Iraq to 100,000. In December Turkish jets bombed PKK targets in Iraq, and approximately 300 Turkish troops crossed the border to attack PKK bases.

South and Central Asia.

      Violence in Afghanistan had continued to escalate (more than 6,000 people had been killed) since Taliban guerrillas relaunched their insurgency in 2005. Air strikes in Afghanistan by NATO and U.S.-led forces were repeatedly criticized for inflicting heavy civilian losses. There were about 40,000 soldiers in Afghanistan under the command of NATO's International Security Assistance Force and 10,000 under U.S. control.

      Security forces in Pakistan became increasingly bogged down in fighting Islamic militants and tribesmen along the border regions with Afghanistan. These regions were also a stronghold for pro-Taliban and al-Qaeda groups fighting in Afghanistan. On November 3 Pakistani Pres. Pervez Musharraf, who was also head of the armed forces, declared martial law, blaming Islamist extremists for unprecedented levels of violence in the country. Under pressure from political opponents in Pakistan and allied governments abroad, Musharraf stepped down as head of the armed forces on November 28. Martial law was suspended in December, and elections were scheduled for January 2008.

      Fighting between government troops in Sri Lanka and separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had worsened since the collapse of a cease-fire in 2006. In March 2007 the Tigers launched their first-ever air raid, using a light aircraft to bomb a military base next to the international airport in Colombo. Though the government in July drove LTTE fighters from their last stronghold in the island's east, the Tigers were still able to mount a series of ground and air attacks on government forces in the north of the country.

Southeast Asia.

      The Philippines military in April stepped up its offensive against the Islamic militant group Abu Sayyaf after the group beheaded seven hostages on the southern island of Jolo. Fighting on the island left hundreds of casualties and forced thousands of civilians to flee their homes. Human rights groups accused the Philippine military of having conducted the extrajudicial killing of hundreds of left-wing activists and journalists in recent years.

Military Technology

      In January China became only the third country (after the former Soviet Union and the United States) to have successfully tested an antisatellite weapon. The test involved using a medium-range ballistic missile, which rammed a disused Chinese weather satellite orbiting at an altitude of 850 km (530 mi).

      In March the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (DARPA) began a space mission to test the abilities of one satellite to perform various maintenance operations on another. The Orbital Express mission was composed of the Autonomous Space Transfer and Robotic Orbiter (ASTRO) and the NextSat target satellite. ASTRO successfully approached NextSat and docked with it without help from ground controllers—something no unmanned spacecraft had ever done before.

      In April Russia launched its first new nuclear-powered attack submarine in 17 years. Christened Yury Dolgoruky (after the founder of Moscow), the 170-m (555- ft)-long submarine was the first of the Borey class; it had a submerged speed of about 29 knots and could carry up to 16 ballistic missiles.

      The age of armed robots on the battlefield came closer in April when the U.S. deployed three Special Weapons Observation Remote-Reconnaissance Direct-Action Systems (SWORDS) to Iraq. SWORDS were small remotely controlled tracked robots, and each was armed with an M249 machine gun.

      In June it was revealed that Israel was installing a series of remotely controlled armed pillboxes along the border separating it from the Gaza Strip. Each pillbox in the network, named See-Shoot, was to be armed with a .50-calibre machine gun.

Military and Society

      For the first time in UN peacekeeping history, an all-female unit was deployed. The force, made up of more than 100 Indian policewomen, was sent to Liberia in January to train police and to assist with local elections and prison security.

       Mexico began allowing women to train in its elite military schools for the first time. Although women were not allowed to assume combat roles, the change meant that they could enter fields such as engineering and aviation, in which they could rise to the rank of general.

      In March, U.S. Pres. George W. Bush apologized for the substandard living conditions and treatments being offered to wounded troops returning from the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. The apology followed a scandal that led to the resignation of the secretary of the army and two generals. Nonetheless, advances and new technologies in military medicine were dramatically improving the treatment of wounded soldiers on the battlefield. (See Special Report (Advances in Battlefield Medicine ).)

      In July Brazilian Pres. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva fired Defense Minister Waldir Pires following the country's worst air crash, in which nearly 200 people died. The Defense Ministry was responsible for civilian air-traffic control.

       Japanese Defense Minister Fumio Kyuma resigned in July after suggesting that the U.S. atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945 were inevitable. The remark provoked public criticism in a country where many still considered the use of nuclear weapons unwarranted under any circumstances.

Armed Forces and Politics.

      In February the U.S. announced the creation of Africa Command to run all its military operations in Africa. Previously, responsibilities for the region had been divided between its European, Central, and Pacific commands.

      In August the Shanghai Cooperation Organization conducted its first-ever joint military exercise involving its six member states. About 4,000 troops and 80 aircraft from China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan participated in the counterterrorism exercise, named Peace Mission 2007.

      That same month a B-52 bomber transferred six nuclear-armed cruise missiles from their storage depot in North Dakota to a U.S. Air Force base in Louisiana without proper approval from senior officials. The incident was one of the worst-known breaches of nuclear weapons procedures and led to disciplinary actions against several air force officers and dozens of other personnel.

      NATO made its first-ever circumnavigation of Africa during August and September. The task force of ships from six member states also conducted operations off the coast of Somalia, where an upsurge in piracy had been seen. The deployment marked NATO's first joint naval exercise with the South African navy.

      Following an incident in September that led to the fatal shooting of 17 and wounding of more than 20 Iraqis in Baghdad by employees of the private security firm Blackwater USA, the U.S. government ordered new rules to improve the oversight of private security contractors in Iraq. The incident prompted Iraq's government to approve a draft law revoking the immunity from prosecution such contractors enjoyed.

      China and the United States in November announced an agreement to establish direct telephone links between their Defense Ministries. Although the U.S had established a similar “hotline” with the Soviet Union during the Cold War, this was the first time that China had agreed to such a military link.

      China and India conducted their first-ever joint military exercise in December. Although only about 100 troops from each country participated, the event was hailed as a watershed in improved bilateral relations. The two armies had fought a brief border war in 1962, and skirmishes continued until the late 1980s.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2007

Introduction

An underground nuclear test by North Korea, the festering civil war in Iraq, a 34-day war between Israel and Lebanon, increased violence in Afghanistan, intensified fighting in the Darfur region of The Sudan, and the collapse of a four-year-old cease-fire in Sri Lanka all contributed to the turbulence in 2006.

WMD, Arms Control, and Disarmament

      In 2006 North Korea became the newest nuclear weapons state; it announced that on October 9 it had conducted an underground nuclear test. An initial lack of evidence to verify that radioactivity had been detected raised questions about what had actually occurred. A week later the United States confirmed the presence of radioactive debris in the atmosphere but said that the North Korean explosion was less than the equivalent of 1,000 tons of TNT (the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was equal to about 12,500 tons). The test followed months of provocative actions by North Korea, such as the test launch in July of a long-range Taepodong-2 ballistic missile, claimed to be capable of reaching North America. In response to the nuclear test, on October 14 the UN Security Council unanimously passed Resolution 1718, which prevented a range of goods from entering or leaving North Korea, banned international travel by North Koreans involved in the nuclear weapons program, and allowed UN member states to inspect cargo moving to and from North Korea.

      A UN conference in New York City aimed at strangling the illicit trade of small arms, such as assault rifles and machine guns, ended without a final agreement on measures to reduce the spread of the weapons. Delegates to the July conference also failed to develop a plan for future action. The first meeting of the Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism was held in October in Morocco. The organization comprised Australia, China, Kazakhstan, Morocco, Turkey, and the Group of Eight industrialized countries. Members pledged to work together to keep their own nuclear materials under control and to combat trafficking in nuclear materials that might end up in the hands of terrorists. The first-ever international agreement obliging belligerents to remove unexploded munitions—such as shells, grenades, cluster bombs, and rockets—left over from the war came into force in November. The Protocol on Explosive Remnants of War, an addition to the 1980 Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons, became legally binding after ratification by more than 20 states.

Conflicts

Middle East.

      The situation in Iraq devolved toward all-out civil war in the months following the bombing in February of a Shiʿite mosque. The incident was a flashpoint for sectarian violence between Sunnis and Shiʿites, and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimated that by midyear some 50,000 Iraqis a month were being internally displaced. Many others were fleeing to neighbouring states, particularly Syria and Jordan. In October an estimated 3,709 Iraqi civilians were killed, a record high. Over 3,000 coalition troops—more than 2,900 of them Americans—had died in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion began in 2003. The coalition battled an array of insurgent groups, some loyal to the former regime of Saddam Hussein, some seeking to settle sectarian grievances, and others pursuing a religious war to drive all non-Muslim forces out of the country.

       Israel launched numerous incursions into the Gaza Strip to eliminate rocket attacks by Hamas (the main Islamist group calling for the establishment of a Palestinian state) and other Palestinian militant forces. During 2006 more than 1,000 homemade Qassam unguided rockets were fired at Israeli communities near the Gaza Strip, killing several civilians and wounding dozens more. The Israeli raids killed or wounded hundreds of Palestinians.

       Hezbollah guerrillas based in Lebanon crossed into Israel in July and captured two Israeli soldiers and killed three others, triggering a 34-day invasion by Israel. (Hezbollah, a Shiʿite Islamist organization, had been fighting Israel since 1982.) Almost 1,000 Lebanese (mostly civilians) and 159 Israelis (mainly soldiers) were killed, and thousands of civilians on both sides of the border fled their homes. A cease-fire agreement called for the 2,000-strong UN Interim Force in Lebanon, stationed there since 1978, to be reinforced. By November nearly 10,000 UN troops and 2,000 naval personnel from 21 countries had deployed; their mission was to ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and to help the Lebanese military free the southern part of the country of guerrillas and their weapons.

Caucasus.

      Sporadic violence continued in Chechnya's 12-year-old war for independence from Russia, but journalists and human rights workers were largely denied access to the region to confirm the numbers of casualties. Chechen rebel leaders Abdul-Khalim Saydullayev and Shamil Basayev (Basayev, Shamil ) (see Obituaries) were killed in separate incidents. Basayev was considered the most-wanted criminal in Russia for his role in organizing the 2004 attack on a school in Beslan that left over 300 dead.

South and Central Asia.

       Afghanistan endured some of the heaviest fighting it had seen since the Taliban regime was overthrown in 2001; the number of insurgent attacks on government and allied forces rose to approximately 600 a month in 2006. In October the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) assumed control of nearly all 31,000 non-Afghan alliance troops in the country. Although 37 countries contributed personnel to ISAF, most combat operations were undertaken by troops from the U.S. (12,000, and another 8,000 who remained under direct U.S. command), the U.K. (5,200), Canada (2,300), and The Netherlands (2,100). The increase in ground combat also led to thousands of air strikes by NATO aircraft against suspected Taliban targets.

      In an incident first reported in the press in September and subsequently confirmed by U.S. officials, China used a ground-based laser on an unspecified date to “illuminate” a U.S. satellite. Although no damage was apparently done, lasers could be used to disable a satellite.

      A decade-long war between the government of Nepal and Maoist guerrillas was brought to an end in November with the signing of a peace accord. The agreement called for the rebels to join a transitional government and have their weapons placed under UN supervision. More than 13,000 people had been killed during the civil war. A 2002 cease-fire between the Sri Lankan government and separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) collapsed in April. Violence escalated throughout the year, killing over 3,000 civilians, troops, and LTTE fighters and creating thousands of refugees. More than 67,000 people had died since the war began in 1983.

Southeast Asia.

      The armed forces of Myanmar (Burma) launched a major offensive against the separatist Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) in 2006. For more than 50 years, the KNLA had waged a guerrilla war against the central government. According to humanitarian groups, Burmese forces destroyed more than 200 villages in Karen state, killed dozens of civilians, and created at least 20,000 refugees.

Africa.

      Militants in the oil-rich Niger Delta region of Nigeria attacked pipelines and other facilities and kidnapped foreign oil workers throughout the year. Nigeria was Africa's biggest oil producer, and the attacks precipitated a 25% drop in its oil output. The militants, under the umbrella Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, sought greater control over the region's oil wealth.

      The Islamic Courts Union militia established control over much of southern Somalia following the capture of the capital, Mogadishu, in June. For most of the previous 15 years, the country had had no effective central government, and the population was left at the mercy of rival warlords. A combination of drought and strict religious law imposed by the Islamic Courts Union drove an estimated 35,000 refugees into neighbouring Kenya. In December Ethiopia launched a military offensive against the Islamist forces to help Somalia's weak transitional government recapture much of the territory it had lost.

      An African Union (AU) force of 7,000 troops in the Darfur region of The Sudan was unable to calm a three-year-old conflict that had claimed the lives of more than 200,000 civilians. Attacks by Arab-influenced Janjawid militias against the black African population intensified, despite a peace deal in May between the Sudanese government and one of the militias. In addition, the government refused to allow the UN to augment the AU force with non-African troops.

      A cease-fire was agreed upon between Uganda's government and the Lord's Resistance Army rebels in August. Tens of thousands of people had been killed and more than a million made refugees in the 20-year conflict. Both sides violated the cease-fire as peace talks continued throughout the year.

Military Technology

      An Argentine company developed the first-ever unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) produced in South America. Named Yarara, the UAV was designed for reconnaissance missions.

 In April the U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency unveiled Crusher, the first of a new generation of large unmanned ground combat vehicles. Crusher weighed 6,350 kg (14,000 lb) fully fueled and was designed to carry a 1,360-kg (3,000-lb) payload and operate in rugged terrain. An operational version might be developed for missions involving surveillance behind enemy lines. The use of unmanned vehicles reflected the U.S. military's desire to keep personnel farther away from the hazards of direct combat. In September the U.S. Air Force began flight tests of a B-52 bomber using a new synthetic jet fuel made from coal and other hydrocarbon sources. A process first developed by German scientists in the 1920s was used to produce the fuel. The tests were part of a major project to reduce the U.S. military's reliance on foreign oil. That same month the U.S. Navy christened Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) Freedom—the first of a new class of warship. The 115-m (377-ft)-long LCS was designed to operate in coastal waters less than 6 m (20 ft) deep at speeds in excess of 40 knots. Its modular construction allowed it to be reconfigured for various missions, such as antisubmarine warfare, mine warfare, and surface warfare.

Military and Society

      In January, French Pres. Jacques Chirac outlined changes to his country's nuclear weapons policy. He announced that threats to France's strategic interests might prompt a nuclear response. (See World Affairs: France .)

      The global deployment of UN peacekeepers reached a historic high in 2006, with nearly 81,000 military and police personnel and approximately 15,000 civilians serving in 18 separate missions. Pakistan (9,790 troops), Bangladesh (9,655), and India (9,276) were the top three contributors of personnel. The top three financial contributors were the United States (27% of the total UN peacekeeping budget), Japan (19%), and Germany (9%).

      As part of a growing trend to move Japan's military away from its post-World War II pacifist tradition, the land, sea, and air forces were placed under a new unified command in March. Streamlining of the command structure also brought the Japanese armed forces more into line with those of other countries. In May New Zealand appointed a Maori to head its armed forces for the first time. Maj. Gen. Jerry Mateparae, a former Special Air Services commando, was promoted to lieutenant general when he took the post.

      The first recorded incident in which a civilian was killed accidentally by a military UAV occurred in October. The UAV belonged to the Belgian component of a European Union contingent supporting UN operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo; it crashed shortly after takeoff from an airport in Kinshasa, the capital. One woman was killed, and three others were injured.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2006

Introduction

The main enemy in 2005 was Mother Nature, and military forces worldwide were charged with rescuing survivors and delivering humanitarian aid. Major military combat dragged on in Iraq and Afghanistan, and deadly violence persisted elsewhere as well.

Disaster Relief

      Getting assistance to the areas worst affected by the massive tsunami that struck the Indian Ocean region in December 2004 proved difficult. In early 2005 armed forces from around the world found themselves at the centre of relief efforts. The U.S. responded with Operation Unified Assistance, which included 25 ships and 16,000 personnel assisting stricken countries. India deployed 14 ships, nearly 1,000 military personnel, and dozens of helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft to Sri Lanka in what was India's largest foreign relief mission since independence in 1947. Japan sent 1,000 troops to Indonesia to help the sick and injured—also Japan's largest overseas deployment since World War II. Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Malaysia, Mexico, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Tunisia, and the United Kingdom also contributed military personnel and equipment to the largest relief effort ever mounted.

 After Hurricane Katrina struck the U.S. Gulf Coast in August, the U.S. military effort included nearly 75,000 National Guard and active-duty troops, 350 helicopters, more than 80 fixed-wing aircraft, and 50 ships. The National Guard, the branch of the military charged with civil defense and disaster relief, did not arrive in force until four days after the hurricane struck, however. Critics suggested that the delay was linked to the deployment of 40,000 National Guard soldiers and their equipment to fight the war in Iraq. (See Economic Affairs: Special Report. (Preparing for Emergencies )) Canada, France, Germany, and the U.K. also sent military personnel to assist in the aftermath of Katrina. For the first time ever, Mexican troops—including nearly 100 engineers, doctors, and nurses—entered the U.S. to deliver humanitarian assistance. When Hurricane Rita hit the same area in September, more than 7,000 U.S. National Guard and active-duty troops were sent to assist in recovery operations.

      International efforts in the form of military personnel and equipment were again deployed after an earthquake devastated northern Pakistan and the disputed Kashmir region in October. (See World Affairs: Pakistan: Sidebar. (Cataclysm in Kashmir )) NATO announced that it would send up to 1,000 soldiers—including a battalion of engineers, some medics, and helicopters. The organization also coordinated the military relief efforts of 41 countries that were either NATO members or partners. The U.K. and the U.S. sent military helicopters to help fly supplies and medical personnel to remote villages left isolated by the destruction.

WMD, Arms Control, and Disarmament

      After seven years of negotiations, the UN General Assembly adopted the International Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism. States that signed the treaty would be required to criminalize acts of nuclear terrorism, including attacks on nuclear facilities such as electricity-generating stations.The U.S. broke with nearly three decades of nonproliferation policy in July when Pres. George W. Bush struck a deal with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to share civil nuclear technology, despite India's refusal to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. The deal followed an announcement in March that the U.S. would resume arms sales to Pakistan, which had been suspended in 1990 in view of Islamabad's nuclear- weapons program. The resumption included the sale of approximately 75 F-16 aircraft at up to $40 million each. (Pakistan postponed the deal after the earthquake.) In October nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan agreed to notify each other in advance of ballistic missile test flights and to ensure that missiles were not permitted to fly close to each other's borders.

Conflicts

Middle East.

      Violence intensified as the war in Iraq entered its third year. Civilians were the primary target of suicide and car bombings, mortar attacks, and assassinations. More than 26,000 Iraqi civilians were estimated to have been killed since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, and the U.S. military reported its 2,000th fatality in October. The leading cause of death of troops of the U.S.-led coalition was remotely detonated roadside bombs, known in military parlance as IEDs (improvised explosive devices).

      Nine U.S. soldiers—the best-known being Pvt. Lynndie England—were convicted during the year of having abused prisoners at Iraq's Abu Ghraib jail in 2003. In other incidents, soldiers from Denmark and the U.K. were charged with abuse of Iraqi prisoners. Iraq's government began investigating allegations that many of the 173 detainees discovered in November in an Interior Ministry building had been tortured by their Iraqi captors. The war in Iraq also involved a growing number of private security personnel. Approximately 70,000 civilian contractors—30,000 of them armed—were estimated to be supporting coalition military or security operations.

      Fighting between Turkish armed forces and Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) separatists heated up in 2005. In April, 21 PKK fighters and 3 Turkish soldiers were killed near the border with Iraq in the biggest clash in the area since the PKK declared a unilateral truce in 1999. Almost 6,000 PKK guerrillas were thought to be based in Iraq.

      In August and early September, Israel dismantled all its settlements and military bases in the Gaza Strip. Thousands of Israeli troops were used to remove settlers—some by force—who refused to leave. In April, Syria announced that it had withdrawn all of its military forces from Lebanon, as demanded by the UN. Syrian troops had been in the country since they intervened in the Lebanese civil war in 1976.

Caucasus.

      Attacks against government and civilian targets in several Caucasian republics throughout the year increased fears that separatist violence that had long beset the Russian republic of Chechnya might engulf the Caucasus region. The war in Chechnya itself continued, but the extent of the civilian casualties was largely unknown because of restrictions that Russian authorities had placed on journalists.

South and Central Asia.

      Hostilities in Afghanistan entered one of the bloodiest periods since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001. Attacks by Taliban rebel forces increased, leading to the deaths of approximately 1,500 people. A 20,000-strong U.S. force shouldered the bulk of the fighting against the Taliban in the east of the country, while more than 8,000 troops from 36 countries made up the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), which was charged with security in the area of Kabul.

      King Gyanendra dismissed Nepal's government in February, declared a state of emergency, and assumed direct power, citing the need to defeat Maoist rebels, who for nine years had been fighting to end the monarchy. The state of emergency was lifted in April, and in September the rebels announced a three-month unilateral cease-fire, the first truce since peace talks broke down in 2003. The civil war in Nepal had left more than 12,000 people dead on both sides. Rebels of the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam organization attacked government forces in Sri Lanka on several occasions, threatening a truce agreed to in 2002.

Southeast Asia.

      In Indonesia the daunting task of recovering from the 2004 tsunami helped persuade the government and the separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM) to agree in August to end the 30-year-old civil war in Aceh province. Under the agreement the European Union, together with Thailand, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines, Singapore, Norway, and Switzerland, provided monitors to oversee the decommissioning of GAM weapons and the relocation of Indonesian military and police forces out of the province. GAM gave up its goal of a separate state in return for local political representation.

      A 2003 cease-fire between the Philippines government and Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) rebels broke down in January. The army said nearly 200 MILF fighters attacked its forces, and it responded with helicopter gunships and heavy artillery. After three days of talks in Malaysia in April, however, the two sides reached an agreement. The MILF had been fighting for autonomy on the southern island of Mindanao.

Africa.

      In January, Burundi's president signed a law to set up a new national army that would incorporate into the government force all but one of the Hutu rebel groups. The Forces Nationales de Libération continued to reject offers of peace talks and launched a series of attacks, including one in September on the capital, Bujumbura. Fighting erupted between ethnic militias and UN troops in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) following an attack in February on a UN convoy. The UN responded with an offensive that killed at least 50 militiamen. Numbering more than 13,000, the UN force in the DRC was the largest anywhere. Congolese troops backed by UN peacekeepers mounted their first combat operation against Hutu rebels since a deadline for the departure of all foreign armed groups expired in September. Thousands of ethnic Hutu from neighbouring Rwanda had fled to the eastern DRC after taking part in the 1994 genocide against Tutsi.

      The UN Security Council threatened Eritrea and Ethiopia with sanctions in November following reports that both countries were increasing troop levels along their disputed border. In December, Eritrea expelled European and North American personnel from the UN mission that had been monitoring implementation of the 2000 peace agreement.

      In March the UN Security Council established the UN Mission in the Sudan (UNMIS) to support implementation of a peace agreement signed by the government and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement/Army (SPLM/A) in January. The agreement brought to an end the conflict that had been waged in the country's south for most of the period since 1955 and had cost more than two million lives. Attacks by Arab militias on villages continued in the Darfur region in The Sudan's west, however. Tens of thousands of people had been killed and more than 1.8 million displaced since the militias took up arms in early 2003. In March the UN Security Council voted to allow the International Criminal Court (ICC) to try persons accused of war crimes in Darfur, but The Sudan insisted on prosecuting any suspects itself. NATO launched its first mission to Africa in June when it agreed to help the African Union expand its peacekeeping mission in Darfur. NATO then airlifted approximately 2,000 African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS) troops from their home countries into Darfur and provided training. By October there were nearly 7,000 AMIS military, police, and civilian personnel in Darfur. The ICC issued its first five arrest warrants for leaders of the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in October. The LRA was accused of widespread murder, torture, and the kidnapping of thousands of children during nearly 20 years of fighting in northern Uganda.

Latin America and the Caribbean.

      More than 11,000 members of the 19,000-strong United Self-Defence Forces of Colombia (AUC) right-wing paramilitary group surrendered their weapons in return for government amnesty. The guerrilla war being waged by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) intensified, however, which led to the deaths of more than 300 members of the security forces in the first nine months of the year. Tens of thousands of civilians had died during Colombia's 40-year civil war, which involved left-wing rebels, right-wing paramilitaries, and government forces. Throughout 2005 troops of the 7,500-strong UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) clashed with armed gangs and supporters of Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the Haitian president ousted in 2004. Eight MINUSTAH peacekeepers and hundreds of civilians had been killed in the fighting, which took place mostly in crowded urban slums.

Military Technology

  The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory unveiled a “nonlethal” laser rifle designed to dazzle enemy personnel without causing them permanent harm. The Personnel Halting and Stimulation Response (PHaSR) rifle could be used, for example, to temporarily blind suspects who drove through a roadblock. In March, Pakistan successfully tested its nuclear-capable Shaheen-2 ballistic missile, which had a range of 2,000 km (1,240 mi), and in August test-fired its first nuclear-capable cruise missile, the 500-km (310-mi)-range Babur. Cruise missiles normally fly at subsonic speeds and at low altitudes to avoid detection by radar. The U.S. Navy christened Sea Jet, an advanced electric ship built to demonstrate new technologies. The 40-m (133-ft) vessel was powered by an underwater waterjet that allowed it to operate in shallow water with great maneuverability. Unlike conventional waterjets, the system was completely submerged, reducing noise and surface wake and improving stealth.

Armed Forces, Politics, and the Environment

       China opened its military procurement process to private contractors in 2005 and in November launched a Web site allowing anyone to view public tenders for matériel that ranged from weapons to livestock for feeding troops.

      Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore agreed in August to begin coordinated air patrols over the pirate-infested waters of the Malacca Strait, one of the world's busiest sea-lanes. (See Law, Crime, and Law Enforcement: Special Report. (Piracy on the High Seas )) The area was so dangerous that private security firms started to offer armed escorts for ships traversing the strait. In October, Malaysia set up its own coast guard to strengthen maritime security in the Malacca Strait.

      The largest warship ever sunk was sent to the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean in May. The decommissioned 79,700-ton, 319.3-m (1,047.5-ft)-long aircraft carrier USS America was sunk by the U.S. Navy following a series of test explosions over 25 days to gather data on the survivability of modern warships. In September the U.S. retired from service the last of its most powerful intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)—the MX, also known as the Peacekeeper. The 10-warhead MX was first deployed in 1986 during the Cold War. A 10-year, $7 billion environmental project to clean up the former Rocky Flats nuclear weapons plant in the U.S. was declared complete in October. The Colorado facility made plutonium triggers for nuclear warheads until it was shut down in 1992.

       Japan agreed to sweeping changes in the deployment of U.S. forces on its territory. The plan included the basing of a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier south of Tokyo and the withdrawal of about 7,000 of the 18,000 Marines from the island of Okinawa. Japan had previously refused to allow a nuclear-powered ship to be based in its waters. The U.S. lost a key air base in southeastern Uzbekistan that supported its operations in Afghanistan. Uzbek Pres. Islam Karimov evicted the Americans after Washington called for an independent inquiry into the shooting of demonstrators in the city of Andijon by Uzbek troops in May. In September, Russia and Uzbekistan held their first joint military exercise. The U.S. and Kyrgyzstan reached an agreement in October to allow U.S. forces to continue using a military base near the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek. The base had been used to launch missions in Afghanistan since the 2001 invasion to oust the Taliban. The U.S. garnered its first military base on the Black Sea in November when it reached an agreement with Romania. The deal was part of Washington's strategy to eliminate bases in Western Europe and move operations closer to hot spots in the Middle East and Central Asia.

      In an important symbol of the reconciliation that had taken place since Bosnia and Herzegovina's civil war ended in 1995, 36 soldiers from the country's three constituent groups— Serbs, Croats, and Bosnian Muslims—were sent to Iraq to support coalition forces.

Military and Society

      The Canadian military hosted its first gay wedding in May after a Supreme Court ruling effectively changed the definition of marriage to include same-sex couples. In October the government of Sierra Leone banned civilians from wearing army combat fatigues; violators and anyone who sold army clothing risked being fined or jailed. The measure was being taken to stop criminals from dressing up as soldiers. Recruitment proved a problem in a number of countries involved in the war in Iraq. For the fiscal year the British army fell short of its goal of 15,000 recruits by nearly 2,000, while the U.S. Army needed approximately 7,000 more enlistees to meet its goal of 80,000.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2005

Introduction

Iraq

      In 2004 the tactics of the year-old war in Iraq devolved into a classic guerrilla campaign fought with all its attendant misery. Although the forces of the U.S.-led coalition launched successful offensives in many cities, its troops continued to die steadily in small numbers as the result of hit-and-run attacks by Iraqi and foreign insurgents. Progress on the battlefield was marred by a series of widely publicized incidents that undercut support for the U.S.-led war at home and abroad. The first was the publication in April of appalling images of Iraqi prisoners being abused by U.S. troops at Abu Ghraib prison. (See Special Report (POWs and the Global War on Terrorism ).) Several U.S. soldiers were jailed for their part in the incidents, and Brig. Gen. Janis Karpinski, the officer in charge of the prison, was suspended. Prisoner abuse scandals also rocked the British, Danish, and Polish contingents in Iraq.

      International support for the war shrank, and coalition partners Spain (1,300 troops), Honduras (370), Hungary (300), and the Philippines (51) withdrew their forces. Poland said that it would pull its 2,500 troops out after the January 2005 Iraqi elections. Australia, however, announced that it would add to the 850 troops it had already committed to Iraq. Successive attempts to uncover deposed Iraqi president Saddam Hussein's alleged stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) yielded no conclusive evidence that any such weapons existed, and this failure also undermined international support for the war.

      In April U.S. forces laid siege to the city of Fallujah in search of the perpetrators of the gruesome killings of four American civilian contractors. The operation failed, and U.S. troops eventually handed the city back to resistance forces. The siege of Fallujah and reports that hundreds of civilians had been killed sparked uprisings across the country. U.S. troops returned to Fallujah in November and engaged in some of the most intense urban warfare they had experienced since the Vietnam War. The price for the U.S. was 51 dead and about 400 wounded in more than eight days of fighting. Some 1,200 Iraqi insurgents were killed, but there were no reliable estimates of civilian casualties.

      By year's end the American military presence in Iraq had grown to nearly 150,000, the highest level since the invasion in 2003; the number of U.S. military dead had surpassed 1,300, and the U.K. had suffered 74 military deaths. The British medical journal The Lancet reported that the number of civilian deaths in Iraq could exceed 100,000, a figure far larger than estimates of 14,000–27,000 made by other agencies. (See also World Affairs: Iraq: Special Report (Character and Future of Nation Building )).

WMD, Arms Control, and Disarmament

      The foreign ministers of 42 countries issued a statement calling the entry into force of the 1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty “more urgent today than ever before”; however, by 2004, 12 of the 44 states required for ratification of the treaty—including China, India, Iran, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, and the United States—had not yet done so. Mohamed ElBaradei, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said that he was certain that North Korea had processed enough spent nuclear fuel to make four to six nuclear bombs. Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin announced that his country was developing a new generation of nuclear-armed missiles. The U.S. Congress eliminated funding that Pres. George W. Bush had requested for research to develop a new generation of small nuclear weapons.

      Following renunciation of its WMD programs in 2003, Libya ratified the Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. Libya also submitted initial declarations to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) and the IAEA. OPCW inspectors verified the destruction of Libya's stockpile of unfilled chemical weapons munitions, and IAEA inspectors were granted broader access to Libyan nuclear facilities. On April 28 the UN Security Council passed Resolution 1540, which called on all states to prevent terrorist groups and other nonstate actors from acquiring WMD and their means of delivery. India and Pakistan agreed in June to notify each other at least 24 hours in advance of missile test launches.

Other Conflicts

Russia.

      More than 330 people—nearly half of them children—died in September during the siege of a school in the town of Beslan in Russia's North Ossetian Republic. The siege was widely blamed on separatist Chechen rebels, and there was much public criticism that the death toll was unnecessarily high because Russian special forces troops had bungled the rescue. The attack in Beslan followed the midair destruction of two Russian civilian airliners in August that was blamed on Chechen women suicide-bombers. Akhmad Kadyrov, Chechnya's pro-Russian president, was killed in a massive bomb blast in Grozny in May.

Europe.

      The European Union began its largest-ever peacekeeping operation by taking command of forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The first of 7,000 EU Force (EUFOR) troops from more than 30 countries (including non-EU states Canada, Switzerland, and Turkey) began deploying across the country to maintain the nine-year-old peace agreement that had previously been supervised by NATO. Several hundred British, Italian, and U.S. troops were sent to reinforce the 17,500-strong German-led NATO Kosovo Force (KFOR) after rioting broke out between ethnic Albanians and Serbs. With 19 killed and hundreds injured, it was the worst violence Kosovo had seen since 1999.

Latin America and the Caribbean.

      Following formal peace talks with the Colombian government in November, 450 paramilitary fighters from the right-wing United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) were demobilized. All 15,000 of the AUC's members were due to be disarmed by 2006, which would allow the government to concentrate on defeating the Marxist-led insurgency. The UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti ( MINUSTAH) arrived in February after dozens of people were killed in violent demonstrations and Pres. Jean-Bertrand Aristide was forced to flee. MINUSTAH included troops from 20 countries and was led by 1,200 Brazilians, the largest contingent that country had ever contributed to a UN mission. It replaced a U.S.-led multinational force that had arrived after Aristide fled.

Middle East.

       Israel credited construction of the first quarter of a 720-km (450-mi) security barrier separating it from much of the occupied West Bank with having dramatically lowered the number of Palestinian suicide bombings in 2004. Israeli forces mounted major operations in Gaza in which dozens of Palestinians were killed and hundreds wounded. Israel said the actions were mounted in response to Palestinian militants who fired mortar shells and rockets at Jewish settlements as well as firing on Israeli army convoys. Government troops in Yemen battled supporters of dissident cleric Hussein al-Houthi in the north of the country; estimates of the dead ranged from 80 to more than 600. Al-Houthi was reportedly killed in September.

South and Central Asia.

      Three years after the U.S.-led coalition invaded Afghanistan, the search for Osama bin Laden and Taliban leader Mullah Mohammed Omar continued to prove fruitless. With about 18,000 troops (16,500 of them U.S.), the coalition launched offensives around the country to eliminate remnants of the former Taliban regime and al-Qaeda extremists. Foreign-aid workers and local government officials were subject to numerous attacks and kidnappings around the country, however. A Franco-German-led unit called Eurocorps took over command of NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. Fielding about 6,500 troops, ISAF concentrated its efforts on providing security in the capital, Kabul, but also sent provincial reconstruction teams to conduct humanitarian and development work in other parts of the country.

 About 25,000 Pakistani troops searched the mountainous border region near Afghanistan for foreign militants and Pakistani supporters of al-Qaeda. (See World Affairs: Pakistan: map—>.) The offensive sparked a backlash from local tribesmen and religious groups, however, and dozens of soldiers and hundreds of militants were reported killed.

       India began withdrawing 40,000 of the half million troops it had stationed in Jammu and Kashmir, where it had been battling Islamic independence groups since 1989. Despite objections from Pakistan, India completed a 550-km (330-mi) electrified fence along the Line of Control separating Indian-controlled Jammu and Kashmir from Pakistan. Nepalese Maoist rebels staged a weeklong blockade of Kathmandu that stopped supplies from reaching the city. Numerous clashes across the country during the year left many dead on both sides.

Southeast Asia.

       Indonesia extended martial law in its troubled province of Aceh. The government said that it had killed 2,000 rebels of the separatist Free Aceh Movement since it began offensives in the province in 2003. Because Aceh was closed to journalists the estimates were hard to verify, and human rights groups said that many of the dead were civilians. Violent clashes between security forces and Islamist militants in the south of Thailand left hundreds of people dead and led to the establishment of martial law in the largely Muslim region. U.S. combat troops, ships, and aircraft were central to the tsunami relief efforts in the Indian Ocean area in late December, and their rapid deployment for humanitarian goals helped improve foreign perceptions of U.S. global military might and operational efficiency.

Africa.

      Simmering tensions in Africa's Great Lakes region were reignited when Congolese rebels, allegedly backed by Rwanda, seized a town in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). Rwandan troops were said to have entered the DRC, attacked villages, and forced thousands of civilians to flee.

      Nine French peacekeepers and dozens of civilians were killed in Côte d'Ivoire after an 18-month cease-fire broke down. France had approximately 5,000 troops stationed in the West African country, and they, along with 6,000 UN peacekeepers, monitored a buffer zone between the rebel-held north and the loyalist south. Following the clashes, more than 9,000 Westerners were forced to flee the country.

       Sudanese government forces moved to suppress a rebel uprising in the western region of Darfur and displaced at least 100,000 civilians in the process. The UN reported that pro-government Arab militias, called Janjawid, were systematically killing non-Arab villagers. By September, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell had applied the term genocide to the situation amid reports that more than 70,000 people had been killed in Darfur and 1,500,000 others made refugees, with as many as 200,000 seeking safety in neighbouring Chad. Earlier in the year, the Sudanese government had concluded a peace deal with non-Muslim rebels in the south of the country ending a civil war that had begun in 1983 and cost nearly 2,000,000 lives.

Military Technology

      Many of the coalition casualties in Iraq resulted from the insurgents' using remotely detonated improvised explosives, so the U.S. Army rushed into service robotic devices called unmanned ground vehicles. One type, the Omni-Directional Inspection System (ODIS), replaced the traditional method of inspecting the underside of a vehicle with a hand-held mirror. The 18-kg (40-lb), 10-cm (4-in) ODIS allowed troops to conduct vehicle inspections from more than 100 m (330 ft) away. A joint U.S.-Israeli program tested the Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser by successfully shooting down seven mortar rounds in flight, the first time a laser weapon had demonstrated this capability.

      The U.S. Navy commissioned the first of a new class of nuclear-powered fast-attack submarines in October. The USS Virginia cost $2.2 billion to build and was billed as the most advanced submarine in the world. The Virginia-class submarine was the first in the U.S. fleet designed to operate in littoral waters and to support special forces operations. It was also equipped with interchangeable multi-mission modules, which allowed it to conduct various types of warfare. China launched the first of a new class of ballistic-missile submarines. The Type 094 would provide China with its first truly intercontinental nuclear-missile-delivery capability. The Swedish navy began testing what it believed to be the stealthiest ship in the world. The Visby corvette, designed and built by shipbuilder Kockums, had a highly camouflaged hull comprising a PVC core with a carbon fibre and vinyl laminate. The material combined high strength and rigidity with low weight and was difficult to detect with radar or magnetic sensors.

      The U.S. Air Force declared operational its new Counter Satellite Communications System, which was designed to jam enemy satellite communications. The ground-based system used electromagnetic energy to disrupt transmissions without permanently damaging or destroying enemy satellites. Proponents of the system said that it would help U.S. forces control space without creating debris that could threaten friendly satellites or manned spacecraft. For the first time, an unmanned combat aircraft delivered a precision-guided bomb on target without human assistance. The U.S.'s developmental X-45A successfully dropped an inert Global Positioning System-guided bomb from 10,500 m (35,000 ft), striking within centimetres of the truck it had been preprogrammed to hit. A human operator 125 km (80 mi) away authorized the bombing but did not participate directly in it. The first six Ground-Based Interceptor missiles of the U.S. Ballistic Missile Defense System were installed in their underground silos at Ft. Greely, Alaska. The system was to have been declared operational by the end of 2004 but with a “limited capability” to destroy ballistic missiles targeted at the U.S.; however, following the failure of a test launch in December, the announcement was deferred until 2005.

Military and Society

      In the biggest expansion of the alliance since its creation in 1949, NATO welcomed seven former communist countries as members. The addition of Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia raised membership to a total of 26 states. Defense ministers from the EU states agreed to create a rapid-reaction force that could be deployed on short notice to hot spots around the world. The total force would comprise about 18,000 troops, with each country contributing units of up to 2,000. In a change to long-standing policy, the government of the United Kingdom announced that Commonwealth citizens serving in sensitive military posts would have to take British citizenship in order to keep their jobs. The move was intended to reduce the risk of espionage and terrorism.

       Germany announced that it would close 105 military bases as part of a major plan to modernize the military and save up to €200 million ($250 million). The armed forces were to be reduced from 285,000 personnel to 250,000, and the civilian staff was to be cut as well. The Czech government abolished conscription and thereby created a fully professional force of 35,000 men and women and brought to an end the 136-year-old tradition of compulsory military service first introduced in 1868 by the Austro-Hungarian monarchy.

      India and Russia signed their largest military contract since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The $1.6 billion deal included the refurbishment and transfer of the mothballed aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov as well as its outfitting with MiG-29K combat aircraft and helicopters. The carrier was due to be handed over to India in 2008.

      Reportedly, in the first nine months of 2004, more than 900 Russian service members died, the majority from causes other than combat. Russia's defense minister admitted that over 500 personnel had died while off duty, about 25% of them by committing suicide. HIV/AIDS had infected one in four soldiers in the South African National Defence Force, and the country's ability to contribute troops to UN peacekeeping missions was severely handicapped. A program to provide infected soldiers and their families with free antiretroviral drugs began in February.

      On a trial basis the Israel Defense Force revived the venerable Camel Corps, which had been disbanded in the 1970s, to patrol the desert border with Egypt. It was determined that mounted camel patrols were the best means to thwart smugglers taking drugs, prostitutes, and weapons into Israel.

      In August the Bush administration announced the biggest change in the basing of U.S. forces overseas since the end of the Cold War. Once fully implemented, the plan would establish new foreign bases but also transfer up to 70,000 troops and 100,000 family members back to the United States.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2004

Introduction

No WMD were used in 2003, but the threat posed by them was enough to initiate a preemptive war against Iraq, create confrontations between the international community and Iran and North Korea, and inspire the creation of a new multinational partnership to combat proliferation.

Iraq

      After a four-year hiatus, UN weapons inspectors returned to Iraq in November 2002 to verify whether Saddam Hussein's regime had eliminated all of its stockpiles of weapons of mass destruction (WMD; see Sidebar (Defining Weapons of Mass Destruction )) and programs to develop them. By the beginning of March 2003, the United States and the United Kingdom had grown exasperated with the lack of progress and declared the diplomatic process over. Weeks of covert missions by special forces preceded a U.S.-led multinational campaign comprising more than 160,000 troops—dubbed Operation Iraqi Freedom—which began on March 19 when air strikes rocked the capital, Baghdad. U.S. and British ground forces then invaded from Kuwait. British troops concentrated on taking the main southern city of Basra while U.S. troops advanced toward Baghdad in two main thrusts; the marines from the southeast and the 3rd Infantry Division from the southwest. Fierce resistance was encountered in Nasiriyah and other towns. Baghdad fell to U.S. troops on April 9, and the focus of actions then moved to northern Iraq, where U.S.-backed Kurdish forces took control of Kirkuk and Mosul before Saddam's hometown of Tikrit fell to U.S. forces on April 14. U.S. Pres. George W. Bush declared an end to “major combat operations” on May 1. At that point 116 U.S. and 33 U.K. service members had been killed in action, along with 4,000–6,000 Iraqi military personnel and an unknown number of civilians.

      As occupying powers, the U.S. and U.K. established the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) under the leadership of retired U.S. Lieut. Gen. Jay Garner. He was removed from office after one month, however, and replaced by Paul Bremer. (See Biographies (Bremer, L. Paul, III ).) Garner later admitted the coalition had made mistakes by not restoring order in Iraq quickly enough. By July a provisional Iraqi Interim Governing Council (IGC) had been established under the direction of the CPA.

      In the months following Bush's declaration of an end to hostilities, attacks on coalition forces became bloodier and more frequent, often numbering more than 30 a day. These were typically ambushes involving rocket-propelled grenades and improvised explosive devices. By year's end a total of 480 American military personnel had been killed and more than 2,700 wounded in both combat and noncombat incidents. Civilians and Iraqi police were also increasingly targeted by anticoalition forces, and the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross pulled out most of their staffs after fatal bomb attacks. The UN special representative, Sérgio Vieira de Mello, was among the casualties (see Obituaries (Vieira de Mello, Sergio )), and other coalition members—Bulgaria, Colombia, Denmark, Italy, Japan, Poland, South Korea, Spain, Thailand, and Ukraine—also suffered fatalities.

      Saddam was taken into custody without a fight by U.S. forces on December 13. (See Biographies (Hussein, Saddam ).) He was found hiding in a “spider hole” at a farmhouse near his hometown of Tikrit. Despite intense searching by the coalition, no evidence of WMD had been found by year's end.

WMD, Arms Control, and Disarmament

      France revised its nuclear strategy by targeting nuclear missiles at “rogue states” that had WMD. Previously the French strategy had been founded on the principle of deterrence against declared nuclear powers. The change aligned France with the U.S. and the U.K. In response to a request from the Pentagon, the U.S. Senate voted to lift a decade-old ban on the development of smaller nuclear weapons, referred to as “mininukes,” for use in destroying deeply buried or fortified facilities where WMD could be stored by enemy states or terrorists. The U.S.-Russia Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, known as the Moscow Treaty, entered into force in June. Both sides pledged to reduce the number of their operationally deployed strategic nuclear warheads to 1,700–2,200 by the end of 2012.

      Representatives of more than 150 countries met to assess global progress toward eliminating all chemical weapons. It was the first review conference of the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons since an international ban on such weapons came into force in 1997. The U.S. met the treaty's deadline for destroying 20% of its chemical weapons ahead of schedule, while Russia barely managed to fulfill its 1% quota (about 400 metric tons) before the conference got under way.

      The first international military exercise on intercepting shipments of WMD occurred in September off the northeastern coast of Australia. It was organized by the Proliferation Security Initiative, set up in May by President Bush to counter suspected trade in WMD and related components. Members of the initiative were Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, the U.K., and the U.S.

Other Conflicts

Russia.

      More than 50 people were killed in the suicide bombing of a government building in the north of the Republic of Chechnya in May. Two days later Akhmad Kadyrov, head of the Russian-appointed administration, narrowly escaped another suicide attack that left more than a dozen dead. Chechen separatists extended their struggle to neighbouring areas as well. Approximately 20 military personnel were killed when a suicide bomber blew up a bus in the North Ossetian Republic. Another suicide bomb attack, this time on a military hospital in the Russian town of Mozdok, near the Chechen border, killed 50 people on August 1.

Latin America.

      During the year some 800 members of the right-wing United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) disarmed. The AUC said all its 13,000 paramilitaries would do so by the end of 2005. Colombia's two most powerful leftist rebel groups—the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army (ELN)—announced that they would join forces. In March the Venezuelan army bombed Colombian armed groups operating on its territory. Both countries later agreed to increase security along their common border.

Middle East.

      Numerous tit-for-tat attacks by Israeli forces and Palestinian militants occurred throughout the year, inflicting hundreds of casualties on both sides and threatening to derail an international plan known as the road map to peace. Israeli jets attacked suspected Hezbollah guerrilla positions in southern Lebanon in response to attacks in Israel and bombed an alleged militant camp in Syria in response to a suicide bomb attack in the city of Haifa that left 19 people dead.

      The U.S. accused Iran of trying to build a nuclear weapon and said that it would not preclude the use of a “military option” to deal with such a threat. Following months of international diplomacy, Iran promised total transparency in its nuclear program, which it said was for peaceful purposes only. A November report by the International Atomic Energy Agency said that Iran admitted it had produced plutonium but that there was no evidence the country was trying to build a nuclear bomb. The U.S. dismissed the report.

South and Central Asia.

      Rivals India and Pakistan continued developing and deploying nuclear-capable ballistic missiles with ranges sufficient to strike each other's capitals. After a lull in the violence over Kashmir's future, conflict in that region flared again. Two bomb blasts killed 52 people and injured 150 in the Indian city of Mumbai (Bombay). India and Pakistan agreed in November to a cease-fire along the Line of Control which separated their forces in Kashmir, as well as on the Siachen glacier in the Himalayas, where fighting had occurred sporadically since 1984.

      Clashes between Maoist rebels and Nepal's security forces became regular events following the resumption of violence in August, when rebels broke a seven-month truce. The rebels blamed the collapse on the government's insistence that the monarchy retain its central role in any future constitution for Nepal.

      The United Nations suspended humanitarian operations in parts of Afghanistan because of fighting between warlords and attacks on central authorities by a resurgent Taliban. In August NATO took command of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF), its first deployment of troops outside Europe or North America. The 5,500-strong ISAF was separate from the force of approximately 11,500 U.S.-led troops who were hunting remnants of the al-Qaeda extremist group and the former Taliban regime. ISAF had hoped to extend its influence beyond Kabul but was limited by a shortage of troops and equipment. Operation Avalanche, in the southern and eastern parts of Afghanistan, involved 2,000 U.S. troops in an effort to end a wave of attacks against coalition forces, aid workers, and civilians.

      Peace talks to end the 20-year-old civil war in Sri Lanka got under way in Berlin in February. In April the secessionist rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam suspended their participation, but a cease-fire declared in 2002 continued to hold generally.

East and Southeast Asia.

      Indonesia declared martial law in May and launched an offensive involving 28,000 troops to wipe out the GAM (Free Aceh Movement), which had been fighting for independence since 1976. More than 1,100 guerrillas were reported killed, while another 2,000 surrendered or were arrested. Initial rebel strength was estimated at about 5,000. Foreign analysts and human rights groups questioned whether the military toll for rebel dead might not also have included civilians.

      North Korea announced in January that it was withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT). The UN Security Council expressed concern about North Korea's nuclear program but failed to condemn Pyongyang for pulling out of the NPT. In March four North Korean fighter jets intercepted a U.S. reconnaissance aircraft in international air space and shadowed it for 22 minutes. In May North Korea said it was scrapping a 1992 agreement with South Korea to keep the peninsula free from nuclear weapons; this was Pyongyang's last remaining international agreement on nonproliferation. After months of indicating that it had already developed a nuclear weapon, North Korea said in October that it would “physically display” its nuclear deterrent.

      The Philippine army mounted an unsuccessful offensive against the country's largest Muslim separatist group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), in February. The government and the MILF signed a cease-fire agreement in July ahead of planned peace talks in Malaysia. Nearly 300 government soldiers mutinied and seized control of a shopping centre in Manila in May to protest working conditions and to accuse the administration of corruption. After negotiations the mutineers surrendered without having fired a shot. A 2,000-strong multinational intervention force led by Australia was sent to the Solomon Islands in July after the government there asked for assistance in ending years of lawlessness and fighting between rival ethnic groups.

Africa.

      A military coup led by army Gen. Verissimo Correia Seabra ousted the civilian president of Guinea-Bissau in September. A weeklong military coup in São Tomé and Príncipe toppled the government of Pres. Fradique de Menezes in July. He returned to power after an agreement to restore democratic rule was reached with coup leaders.

      A 3,000-strong African Union peacekeeping force was deployed to Burundi to oversee a cease-fire agreement and to assist with the demobilization of rebel forces. In July a six-month cease-fire between the government of Burundi and the main Hutu rebel group broke down, which led to renewed fighting and thousands of refugees. South Africa brokered another cease-fire in October.

      In June 900 French soldiers arrived in the Democratic Republic of the Congo as the spearhead of a 1,500-strong European Union force to maintain peace between the government and rebels. This was the first EU military operation outside Europe, and it was deployed until the UN's own force (known by its French abbreviation MONUC) could take over in September. In December former government soldiers and troops from the two main rebel groups formed a united military force as part of a power-sharing deal signed earlier in 2003 to end the five-year-old civil war. Some 4,000 French and 1,300 West African soldiers monitored a truce and a no-weapons zone in Côte d'Ivoire after the civil war there was declared over in July.

      Fighting intensified in Liberia's civil war after the breakdown of a cease-fire agreement signed in June. Rebels surrounded Monrovia, the capital, and hundreds of people were killed. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) dispatched a peacekeeping force in August to stabilize the situation until a UN force could arrive. The ECOWAS force was complemented by 2,000 U.S. marines stationed off the coast. Liberian Pres. Charles Taylor left the country in August. U.S. forces withdrew in September and October as the UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL), comprising approximately 4,500 troops, took over peacekeeping duties. Hundreds of people were killed in the north of Uganda as the Lord's Resistance Army continued its 17-year campaign to overthrow the government. An estimated 1.3 million people had been displaced by the outlaw band. During yearlong negotiations the Muslim government of The Sudan and rebel leaders of the Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) agreed to share oil resources, but differences over territorial and power-sharing issues still precluded an end to Africa's longest civil war.

Military Technology

      The U.S. Air Force tested its new 9,500-kg (21,000-lb) Massive Ordnance Air Burst (MOAB) munition. The bomb could spread a flammable mist over its target area and then ignite it, creating a massive blast and fireball 40% more powerful than any other conventional weapon in the U.S. arsenal. The RQ-4A Global Hawk became the first pilotless aircraft allowed to fly routinely in civilian airspace. German shipbuilder Howaldtswerke–Deutsche Werft AG launched the first of a new generation of four extremely quiet submarines that ran on hydrogen fuel cells and were difficult to detect by sonar. Christened U31, the submarine could remain underwater for several weeks, a feat previously accomplished only by nuclear-powered submarines.

Military and Society

      Israel sacked 27 air force pilots for refusing to fly bombing raids on Palestinian cities. The pilots had questioned Israel's policy of “targeted assassinations” that had killed more civilians than the leaders of militant groups it was designed to eliminate. Israel's navy suspended the captain of a patrol boat who refused to conduct missions near the Gaza Strip. In August Sweden announced that its armed forces would operate only during normal office hours for the rest of the year in order to cut costs. Sweden also reduced aircraft patrols, kept navy ships in port, and mothballed armoured vehicles. A senior member of the Kenyan army reported that at least one soldier was dying each day as a result of HIV/AIDS infection. Studies showed that HIV/AIDS was the leading cause of death in the military and police forces of several southern African countries.

      NATO reduced the number of its regional commands from 20 to 11 and planned to overhaul its command structure to enable deployment of lighter, more flexible forces. Dutch Foreign Minister Jaap de Hoop Scheffer was named to succeed NATO Secretary-General George Robertson with effect from January 2004.

      The EU embarked upon its first-ever military mission when it assumed control from NATO of the peacekeeping operation in Macedonia. Approximately 400 troops from 26 EU and non-EU European countries plus Turkey participated. Germany announced the abolition of military conscription and said that the size of its army would be reduced by one-third. The plan was to be phased in over five years and would leave the army with an all-volunteer force of about 200,000 troops.

      Kyrgyzstan granted Russia permission to build a military base at Kant to house a new Russian antiterrorism force. It was the first foreign military base established by Russia since the demise of the Soviet Union in 1991.

      Environmentalists forced the U.S. Navy to restrict the peacetime use of a powerful new sonar for detecting submarines. A U.S. court issued an injunction against using the sonar after hearing evidence that whales and dolphins had suffered life-threatening injuries as a result of its use.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2003

Introduction

      The spectre of nuclear weapons reappeared on the world stage in 2002 even as the Cold War superpowers withdrew from the nuclear arms control treaties of the past. Governments began to act decisively to control international terrorism. NATO expanded right up to Russia's borders. Armed conflict continued in Afghanistan, Colombia, Israel, the Caucasus region, and elsewhere—and a U.S. attack on Iraq seemed inevitable for much of the year. Conflicts wound down in Africa and Sri Lanka.

Nuclear Weapons, Arms Control, and Disarmament

      After having given the required six months' notice, the United States formally withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty with Russia in June in order to pursue the development of a ballistic missile defense system. Construction of six underground silos to house missile interceptors began in Alaska. Under the ABM Treaty such construction was prohibited. In response, Russia withdrew from the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II (START II) treaty with the U.S. Although never implemented, START II would have reduced the number of nuclear warheads in each side's arsenal to between 3,000 and 3,500.

      Pres. George W. Bush and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, signed an agreement in May to reduce each side's stockpile of nuclear weapons by two-thirds over 10 years. The remarkably brief 475-word document, dubbed the Treaty of Moscow, required that each side reduce its arsenal to between 1,700 and 2,200 nuclear warheads but did not define how the numbers should be counted or how each side's nuclear force should be structured.

      In November more than 90 countries signed the International Code of Conduct Against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (ICOC). Although the code lacked the legal force of an international treaty, it sought to restrict the export of ballistic missiles and their related technologies to countries of concern by requiring signatories to conduct their affairs more openly. The ICOC built on the 1987 Missile Technology Control Regime, which was supported by 33 countries.

      In March the U.S. Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), a confidential document, was leaked to journalists. The document revealed the willingness of the government to break a long-standing commitment that the U.S. would abstain from using nuclear weapons against nonnuclear states. The NPR suggested that nuclear weapons could be used in retribution for attacks against the U.S. using biological or chemical weapons and that small accurate “mininukes” could be used against well-protected underground bunkers. Britain's defense minister, Geoff Hoon, announced that his government too reserved the right to use nuclear weapons if Britain or British troops were threatened by biological or chemical weapons.

      North Korea allegedly admitted that it had nuclear weapons but later claimed that it was merely reasserting its “right” to possess them. The government in Pyongyang rejected calls for United Nations inspectors to be allowed to verify that there were no such weapons or a program to develop them in the country. Israel was reported to be arming three of its new diesel-electric submarines with nuclear-armed cruise missiles as a means of enhancing its deterrent against foreign aggression.

Global Terrorism

      The number of terrorist incidents remained high in many places throughout the world. Although some were isolated criminal acts, others were the work of international terrorist organizations.

      Several states began taking tough measures to eradicate terrorist groups. In response to the terrorist bombings of Sept. 11, 2001, U.S. President Bush signed into law in November the Homeland Security Act, the most sweeping change in the U.S.'s security infrastructure since the 1940s. The act created the Department of Homeland Security, which was to have about 170,000 employees and merge the functions of 22 existing agencies, including the U.S. Coast Guard, the Secret Service, and the Border Patrol. Bush announced in June that because of the growing threat of global terrorism, the United States reserved the right to launch preemptive strikes without warning against terrorist states or groups suspected of plotting to use weapons of mass destruction against American targets. Similarly, following the mass hostage-taking incident in Moscow in October (see below), the Kremlin announced that it was prepared to strike preemptively across international borders in order to stop terrorist actions. In December, Australian Prime Minister John Howard angered several Asian countries when he announced that he was prepared to order preemptive strikes against terrorists anywhere in the region. Nearly 200 people, including many foreign tourists, had been killed when a nightclub on the Indonesian island of Bali was bombed by terrorists. Australia, which counted about 90 of its citizens among the dead, put its security forces on a high state of alert after the attack.

      Other incidents of terror included a suicide bombing in Karachi, Pak., in May that killed 14 people, including 11 French defense consultants helping Pakistan build submarines. In October a French oil tanker, the Limburg, was crippled by a blast off the coast of Yemen that killed one crewman. Government officials in both France and Yemen believed that the blast was the result of a suicide attack by a small boat. On November 28 terrorists made two attacks on targets in Mombasa, Kenya. In one, two shoulder-launched surface-to-air missiles were fired at an Israeli jet flying tourists home from Kenya, but the missiles missed their target. At nearly the same time, 16 people died when suicide bombers attacked an Israeli-owned hotel in the Kenyan capital.

      In October the Pentagon agreed to deploy several RC-7 Airborne Reconnaissance Low aircraft to help federal, state, and local law-enforcement officials capture a sniper terrorizing the Washington, D.C., area. More than 1,000 personnel were engaged in the hunt for the culprits in a three-week shooting spree that left 10 people dead and 3 wounded.

Other Conflicts

Former Soviet Union.

      In April the first of 150 U.S. Special Operations Forces troops arrived in Georgia to train local forces in antiterrorist operations. Georgia had requested American help in defeating guerrilla forces entrenched in the Pankisi Gorge region, which borders Russia's rebellious republic of Chechnya. U.S. officials believed that the Georgian guerrillas could be linked to al-Qaeda.

      In the same month, Russia's intelligence agency, the FSB, announced that it had assassinated a Saudi-born Chechen field commander known as Khattab. Chechen forces acknowledged the death, saying that Khattab had received a poisoned letter. In November a Chechen ambush killed Russia's Lieut. Gen. Igor Shifrin, commander of the army's Chief Special Construction Directorate.

      A Chechen suicide squad of more than 40 guerrillas seized control of a Moscow theatre in October and held hostage nearly 700 members of the audience and performers for three days. The incident came to a tragic conclusion when Russian security forces used a powerful opium-based narcotic gas to incapacitate the guerrillas: at least 119 hostages were killed and more than 245 hospitalized, most as a result of inhaling the gas. Following the incident, Russia canceled plans to recall some of the 80,000 troops that it had stationed in Chechnya and instead stepped up military operations in the republic.

Latin America.

      Colombia's 38-year-old civil war intensified despite hopes that peace talks would lead to an early cease-fire. Pres. Andrés Pastrana Arango ended the talks in February after FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) guerrillas hijacked a civilian airliner. Pastrana then launched a major military offensive against FARC strongholds. The U.S. was drawn deeper into the war and deployed army special forces (Green Berets) to train government troops in counterinsurgency operations. Previous U.S. military aid had been restricted to the war on drugs. The number of American troops in Colombia grew to an estimated 400.

      Elements of Venezuela's armed forces attempted to stage a coup against elected Pres. Hugo Chávez Frias in April. After being deposed for a mere two days, however, Chávez staged a surprising comeback with the support of loyal officers and many ordinary citizens. Chávez announced in October that another coup attempt had been thwarted.

Middle East.

      Following a wave of Palestinian suicide bombings that killed scores of citizens, Israel mounted a six-week offensive in the West Bank in March. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) rounded up thousands of suspected militants and carried out dozens of “targeted killings” of what it considered leading militants. The IDF also destroyed Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat's headquarters in Ram Allah. Following more suicide bombings it conducted a similar offensive in June and July. Palestinian agencies and some international organizations accused the IDF of numerous human rights abuses.

      British and U.S. aircraft patrolled the northern and southern “no-fly zones” over Iraq throughout the year. In the first 10 months of 2002, coalition aircraft attacked Iraqi air-defense sites nearly 60 times, and the number of incidents increased as speculation grew that a war to topple the Iraqi regime was forthcoming. In October the U.S. Air Force announced that it had begun using armed unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to strike targets in the “no-fly zone” over southern Iraq. Inspectors from the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) began arriving in Iraq in November on a mission to assess whether the country was in compliance with a series of UN Security Council resolutions that required Iraq to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction programs and eliminate its stockpiles of ballistic missiles with a range longer than 150 km (1 km = 0.6 mi).

South Asia.

      For several weeks during the year, a nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan seemed a possibility, and several countries advised their citizens to leave the region. Tensions soared in May following a guerrilla attack on an Indian military base in the disputed region of Kashmir. India said that the attackers were based in Pakistan, but the government in Islamabad denied the accusation. Indian and Pakistani troops exchanged mortar, artillery, and machine-gun fire across their international border for weeks afterward, and the two sides deployed up to a million troops in total along the border. Dozens of civilians and soldiers on both sides were killed during the exchanges, and thousands of civilians were forced to flee.

      The two nuclear rivals each tested new missile systems in 2002. In April India fired a supersonic cruise missile that it had developed jointly with Russia. Named Brahmos, the missile was claimed to be capable of delivering a 200-kg (440-lb) conventional warhead to ranges of 300 km. Over a span of several days in May, Pakistan tested three types of new ballistic missile. The Ghaznavi had a range of 290 km and had not been test-launched before. The 1,500-km-range Ghauri and 2,900-km-range Shaheen were also fired during the tests. The three types—all named after medieval Afghan Muslim warriors who had invaded India—gave Pakistan the ability to strike targets anywhere on the subcontinent.

      Nepal's six-year war against Maoist rebels intensified. Hundreds of government troops and guerrillas, as well as hundreds of civilians, were killed.

      Nineteen countries contributed approximately 4,500 troops to the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan. ISAF was mandated by the UN Security Council to assist the interim government in Afghanistan in bringing security and stability to Kabul. During the year ISAF mounted thousands of joint patrols with Afghan security forces in and around the Afghan capital. It also disposed of millions of unexploded munitions, helped rebuild local infrastructure, and trained elements of the new Afghan National Guard. The biggest U.S. ground offensive of the war took place in March. Dubbed Operation Anaconda, the two-week campaign to eliminate al-Qaeda and Taliban forces in the Shah-e Kot Valley left eight U.S. soldiers dead, plus a disputed number of enemy casualties. At year's end the United States still maintained about 9,000 troops in Afghanistan, and continued factional fighting in the country did not augur well for their early withdrawal.

      The government of Sri Lanka and rebels of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam agreed to a permanent cease-fire in February as a step toward ending the 19-year civil war. During peace talks in September, the Tamil Tigers dropped their demand for full independence, and additional talks occurred in October and December.

East and Southeast Asia.

      In June U.S. marines engaged Muslim guerrillas in combat in the Philippines for the first time. About 1,200 U.S. troops were in the country to train government forces to combat indigenous guerrilla movements and were given permission to assist Philippine troops in front-line operations against groups such as Abu Sayyaf.

      Nearly 800 people were killed in the first six months of 2002 in fighting between Indonesian troops and the rebel Free Aceh Movement. The number of human rights abuses committed by both sides was reported to have soared.

      A South Korean patrol boat was sunk in a naval clash with North Korea in June. The incident took place in a disputed part of the Yellow Sea and left 4 South Korean sailors dead and 19 wounded. More than 100 South Korean fishing boats operating in the area were evacuated. Following a period of increased tension between North Korea and the U.S., both sides announced the end of the 1994 agreed framework that saw North Korea forgo its efforts to acquire nuclear weapons in exchange for annual supplies of fuel oil and the construction of two modern nuclear power plants.

Africa.

      Hundreds of people were killed in fighting between Algerian government forces and Islamist rebel groups during the year. The government announced in February that it had killed Antar Zouabri, the leader of the Armed Islamic Group. Dozens of citizens were killed in bombings in July during celebrations of Algeria's 40th anniversary of independence. In April the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague delimited a 1,000-km stretch of border between Ethiopia and Eritrea that the two countries had fought over in 1998–2000.

      Angolan army troops killed longtime UNITA rebel leader Jonas Savimbi in February, a move that led to the signing of a peace accord between the two sides in April. (See Obituaries (Savimbi, Jonas Malheiro ).) The 27-year conflict was Africa's longest civil war.

      The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed a peace agreement in July to end the four-year war that had left an estimated two million people dead. Although there were outbreaks of fighting between local groups afterward, Rwandan and most Ugandan troops (who had supported rebels inside the country) pulled out of the DRC in October. Troops sent by Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe to aid the Congolese army were also repatriated under the arrangement. UN peacekeepers and about 1,000 Ugandan troops remained in the DRC to prevent fighting between local militia groups.

      Uganda sent thousands of troops into southern Sudan in March to try to wipe out the Lord's Resistance Army rebel group. At least 67 rebels were killed during a later raid, in June, which had the approval of the Sudanese government under an agreement signed in March.

      Fighting broke out between government forces and rebels in Côte d'Ivoire in September. The civil war began when government forces crushed an attempted mutiny by elements of the army. Gen. Robert Gueï, the Ivoirian former military leader, was killed during the attempted mutiny. (See Obituaries (Guei, Robert ).) Hundreds of soldiers and civilians were subsequently killed on both sides. France sent several hundred troops to the capital, Yamoussoukro, and the main city of Abidjan in order to protect French and other foreign nationals.

Military Technology

      For the first time ever, the U.S. Army shot down an artillery shell in flight by using a high-powered laser. The Mobile Tactical High Energy Laser, a joint project with Israel, was test-fired in November. An earlier version of the system had been used to shoot down Russian Katyusha rockets in 2000. A modified Boeing 747-400 jet carrying a laser capable of shooting down ballistic missiles in flight was flight-tested for the first time in July. The U.S. Airborne Laser (ABL) program envisioned a fleet of seven such aircraft to be part of the country's defenses against ballistic missile attack. The test flight marked the beginning of accelerated development of a national missile-defense system that became possible once the constraints of the ABM Treaty had been removed. (See Special Report (Warfare in the 21st Century ).)

      The X-45A unmanned combat aerial vehicle (UCAV) made its first flight in May, reaching a maximum airspeed of 360 km/hr (195 knots) and an altitude of 2,275 m (7,500 ft). The UCAV would preclude the need to send manned aircraft on a range of combat missions. Advances in military capabilities were sometimes little more than new applications of an existing technology; for example, in August Colombian troops seized nine remote-control model airplanes that rebel FARC troops were planning to fill with explosives.

      The requirement for troops to fight for many hours and perhaps even days without a normal rest was seen as a key to success in future conflicts. The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) was developing drugs to help troops manage stress and sleep deprivation. The Continuous Assisted Performance program included research into areas such as altering the body's metabolism so that it could use lipids as a source of energy rather than the normal carbohydrates.

      Britain announced that its Defence Science and Technology Laboratory had developed an electrically charged hull to protect armoured vehicles against antitank grenades and shells. Known as the Pulsed Power System, the new armour used a highly charged capacitor to create a force field that would vaporize incoming metal objects before they could penetrate the vehicle's hull.

Military and Society

      History caught up with a number of war criminals in 2002. In July a Florida court found two retired Salvadoran generals guilty of having been responsible for the torture of civilians during El Salvador's civil war more than two decades earlier. The court ordered the generals, who were residing in the U.S., to pay $54.6 million in damages to three of the victims. Gen. Leopoldo Galtieri, the former Argentine military dictator, was arrested in July and charged with offenses relating to the kidnapping and murder of domestic opponents during the so-called Dirty War of the 1980s. Warrants were also issued for the arrest of more than 30 other members of Galtieri's military administration. At least 9,000 and possibly as many as 30,000 people had “disappeared” during the Dirty War. A Chilean judge sentenced 11 former members of the military services and one civilian to prison terms for their role in the murder of a union leader in 1982 during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet Ugarte.

      In July the head of the Ukrainian air force was arrested, the chief of staff of the armed forces fired, and the defense minister asked to resign as a consequence of the world's worst-ever air-show disaster, the crash of an Su-27 jet fighter in Lviv that killed 76 people and injured more than 100. (See Disasters.)

Armed Forces, Politics, and the Environment

      In August NATO scrapped its main rapid-reaction unit, the Allied Command Europe Mobile Force, after Britain withdrew its contribution to ensure that troops would be available to support any U.S. attack on Iraq. Then, at its November summit in Prague, NATO announced that it was creating a new rapid-reaction unit called the NATO Response Force that would be able to deploy up to 20,000 troops within 7–10 days. The summit was also used to announce the extension of NATO membership to seven more European countries (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). The move brought to 26 the number of NATO member states and for the first time brought the alliance into direct geographic contact with Russia's borders. In May, before it expanded its membership eastward, NATO had formalized its relationship with its former Cold War enemy by forming the new NATO-Russia Council. The arrangement was aimed at fostering greater cooperation in areas such as crisis management, peacekeeping, and search-and-rescue operations.

      Germany undertook its largest naval deployment since World War II when it took command of a multinational antiterror operation in the Horn of Africa. Twelve warships from Germany and other European countries conducted surveillance and intelligence-gathering activities around the Red Sea, the Somali coast, and the Gulf of Aden in search of evidence of activity by members of al-Qaeda or the Taliban.

      The dispute over the U.S. Navy's continued use of a bombing range on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques continued. Protesters attempted to disrupt a military exercise on the island in September, even though the navy had agreed to use only inert ordnance.

      A UN Environment Programme task force found evidence of contamination from depleted uranium (DU) ammunition in Bosnia and Herzegovina. During its 1995 bombing campaign against Serb forces in Bosnia, NATO used armour-piercing munitions that contained DU, a slightly radioactive heavy metal. The UN task force identified three sites that it judged potential health hazards to people living nearby.

      On the 60th anniversary of the World War II Battle of El-Alamein, the Egyptian government claimed that there were still approximately 20 million pieces of unexploded ordnance—of which 5 million were land mines—in the area around the site of the famous clash, which had pitted the forces of German Field Marshal Erwin Rommel against British Lieut. Gen. Bernard Montgomery's 8th Army.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2002

Introduction

      The devastating aerial attacks by terrorists in the United States on Sept. 11, 2001, caused untold chaos and horror and initiated a flood of events that affected all aspects of life in all corners of the world. The United States declared a “war on terrorism” and promptly focused on the international al-Qaeda group and its Taliban protectors in Afghanistan. (Al-Qaeda [“the Base”] started as an umbrella organization for guerrillas who fought against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in the 1980s but later broadened its membership and goals to oppose all non-Islamic governments.) The antiterrorist coalition included contributions from Germany and Japan, countries that were largely able to overcome their post-World War II angst about deploying armed forces abroad.

September 11 and Afterward.

      Within days of the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, NATO, for the first time in its history, invoked Article 5 of its charter, declaring that the atrocities were an attack on the alliance. As a demonstration of support, Australia invoked the Australia–New Zealand–United States (ANZUS) Treaty, putting elements of its armed forces on a higher state of readiness in case they were called upon to assist the U.S. On September 19 the Organization of American States agreed by acclamation to invoke the Rio Treaty, also a mutual-defense pact.

      The week after the attacks was a period of shock and rage for most Americans, but there was also a feeling of helplessness because of great uncertainty about who exactly had attacked, where precisely in the world they could be found, and how they could be punished. On September 19 the U.S. dispatched more than 100 combat and support aircraft to various bases in the Middle East and the Indian Ocean. A large naval task force was sent to join what was first called Operation Infinite Justice but later, after complaints were received from Muslims, was renamed Operation Enduring Freedom. Japan sent three warships to support the effort, although they were restricted to a noncombat role according to the terms of Japan's pacifist constitution.

      Allied air strikes in Afghanistan began on October 7. Later U.S. special forces, including Delta Force and Rangers, launched ground raids inside the country. The U.S. enlisted as an ally the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance, the principal remaining opposition to the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, relying on them to provide the bulk of ground troops for the campaign. The northern city of Mazar-e Sharif fell a month later, and on November 13 the Northern Alliance entered Kabul as Taliban forces fled the capital. On December 9, with the fall of the Taliban's principal city of Kandahar imminent, American B-52s began carpet bombing a network of caves in the Tora Bora mountains of eastern Afghanistan, the last stronghold of forces loyal to Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. On December 15 anti-Taliban Afghan troops, backed by British and American commandos, surrounded a cave where they thought Bin Laden and a dwindling force of al-Qaeda fighters were hiding, but he was not found. His whereabouts were still unknown at year's end.

Other Conflicts and Confrontations.

The U.S. and China.

      A U.S. Navy surveillance aircraft made an emergency landing in China after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet on April 1 and thereby initiated a diplomatic confrontation. The aircraft and its crew of 24 were detained on Hainan Island until April 11. The aircraft was not returned until July, after the United States, in a carefully worded diplomatic note, said it was “very sorry” that the pilot of the Chinese jet had died. At the height of the dispute, U.S. Pres. George W. Bush announced that the U.S. would sell Taiwan up to eight diesel submarines, four Kidd-class destroyers, and 12 antisubmarine aircraft to bolster its defenses against China. The $4 billion weapons package was the most expensive sale to Taiwan since 1992.

The Balkans.

      In March tension increased along the border between the Serbian province of Kosovo and Macedonia following a series of armed clashes between Macedonian security forces and ethnic Albanian gunmen. The situation prompted the deployment of international peacekeeping soldiers from the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR). The fighting spread round the country, however, including in and around Macedonia's capital, Skopje. After a peace agreement was brokered in August, NATO was given a one-month mandate in Macedonia to collect and destroy more than3,000 weapons that the ethnic Albanian guerrillas of the National Liberation Army had agreed to surrender. Sporadic violence continued for the remainder of the year.

Russia.

      The Russian army's war against Chechen secessionists remained at a stalemate in 2001. Tens of thousands of Russian troops stationed in the mountainous republic were unable to eliminate the rebels, whose sporadic attacks against Russian forces and pro-Russian Chechens resulted in a steady flow of fatalities. Moscow claimed that the Chechen rebels had links to Afghanistan's Taliban regime and Bin Laden, which made it all the more palatable for Russian Pres. Vladimir Putin to pledge support for U.S. President Bush's call for a war on global terrorism. In December Russia stepped up military operations in response to Chechen raids on its forces.

Middle East.

      The situation in Israel and the Palestinian Autonomous Areas devolved into a war in all but name. Palestinian militants used small arms, mortars, and suicide bombers, mostly against civilian targets. The Israeli military used weapons ranging from F-16 fighter jets and missile-equipped attack helicopters to tank-fired flechette rounds, which contained thousands of 5-cm (2-in)-long steel darts. Also, both sides used assassination as a weapon; for example, Palestinian gunmen shot Israel's tourism minister, Rechavam Ze'evi (Ze'evi, Rechavam ), dead in October in retaliation for the death of Palestinian nationalist Abu Ali Mustafa (see Obituaries) in a rocket attack in August, and an Israeli helicopter gunship destroyed a car carrying Mahmoud Abu Hanoud, a Hamas leader, and two others on November 24.

      During the year U.S. and British war planes attacked numerous sites in southern Iraq to prevent Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein from reconstituting his air defenses. According to the U.K. Royal Air Force, there were nearly 400 incidents of Iraqi surface-to-air-missile and antiaircraft fire against U.S. and British aircraft operating over the southern no-fly zone during the first eight months of 2001. German and U.S. intelligence agencies reported that since the 1990–91 Persian Gulf War, Iraq had been able to reconstruct a significant number of its production facilities for weapons of mass destruction. The U.S. also believed that Iraq was continuing work on a ballistic missile with a range of 3,000 km (1 km = about 0.62 mi) that could be operational as early as 2005.

South Asia.

      The long-festering dispute over Kashmir continued to poison relations between India and Pakistan, and the two nuclear-armed countries were virtually at war at the end of 2001. India blamed Kashmiri separatists for an assault on the Indian Parliament in December in which five attackers killed eight people with guns and grenades before being killed themselves. India accused Pakistan's secret service of having assisted the attackers. In retribution India considered punitive military strikes on what they said were militant training camps in Pakistan. Earlier in the year Indian artillery had fired on Pakistani military posts in the heaviest fighting along the dividing line of control in Kashmir in almost a year. Authorities in Indian-administered Kashmir reported over 3,000 incidents of violence in the first 10 months of 2001, a 55% increase over the corresponding period in 2000. Pakistan denounced India's test launch of an Agni-2 ballistic missile in January. The Agni-2 was capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and its 2,000-km range meant it could reach targets anywhere in Pakistan or deep inside China.

      King Gyanendra of Nepal declared a state of emergency after the worst violence in the nearly six years the Himalayan nation had been contending with a Maoist insurgency. This was the first time the army had been called upon to help defeat the rebels, who sought to establish a communist state. The Maoists had stepped up their campaign in the months following the June 1 massacre of King Birendra (see Obituaries (Birendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev )) and other members of the Nepalese royal family. Hundreds of rebels and police were killed in the civil violence during 2001.

      Since 1983 the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) had fought for an independent homeland for Sri Lanka's Tamil population. In April the Sri Lankan military launched a major assault on guerrilla positions south of the Jaffna Peninsula after the collapse of a four-month-old cease-fire. More than 300 government soldiers were killed or reported missing in action, however, and the assault was terminated after only three days. In July the LTTE attacked the country's only international airport and a nearby military base, leaving at least 18 dead and destroying several aircraft. Following the election of a new prime minister in Sri Lanka on December 5, talks with the LTTE resumed, yielding a truce agreement that entered into effect on December 24.

Southeast Asia.

      A new military operation began in Aceh province on the Indonesian island of Sumatra and resulted in an intensification of the conflict. There were reports of many civilians' being killed by security forces and the Gerakan Aceh Merdeka. Despite a cease-fire agreement by Indonesia and the separatist organization signed on May 12, the violence by both sides continued throughout the year. (See Special Report (Resisting Disintegration in Post-Suharto Indonesia ).)

      Philippine Pres. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (see Biographies (Arroyo, Gloria Macapagal )) declared all-out war on Muslim extremists in April. Fighting in the southern island of Jolo pitted thousands of army troops against guerrillas loyal to a rebellious Muslim governor and head of the Moro National Liberation Front, and more than 100 people were left dead.

Latin America.

      In October the U.S. announced that it was broadening its struggle against terrorism and would provide Colombia with further assistance in its 37-year war against various guerrilla groups. U.S. Ambassador to Colombia Anne Patterson compared the insurgents to Bin Laden when she announced that the U.S. would train and equip antikidnapping and bomb squads as well as help Colombia guard its oil pipelines. More than a thousand people were killed by right-wing death squads and scores more by leftist guerrillas during the year.

Sub-Saharan Africa.

      In 2001 the government of Burundi agreed to direct cease-fire talks with the main ethnic Hutu rebel group, Forces for the Defense of Democracy, in an attempt to end seven years of civil war. The talks, brokered by South African statesman Nelson Mandela, led to the installation of a transitional power-sharing government backed by a South African peacekeeping force under a UN mandate. The Burundian army gained control of the whole of the capital, Bujumbura, after two weeks of heavy fighting in April. In the neighbouring Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), a cease-fire monitored by the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC) largely held during the year, although there was intermittent violence. The South African National Defence Force contributed several dozen specialist support personnel to MONUC. This was the South African force's first substantial deployment in a UN operation since the Korean War. By September approximately 15,000 guerrillas had turned in their weapons as part of a cash-for-arms scheme. The conflict was called “Africa's First World War,” because Zimbabwe, Angola, and Namibia had sent troops to fight on the side of the DRC government while soldiers from Rwanda and Uganda supported the rebels. In the autumn Uganda and Rwanda began pulling their troops out of the country, and troops from Zimbabwe followed suit. None of the belligerents fully respected their commitments under the 1999 Lusaka cease-fire agreement, however. By December renewed killings and the redeployment of Ugandan troops in parts of the DRC were heightening fears of escalating violence.

      Underage soldiers were a growing concern in many countries of the world; the Congolese government released a first group of child soldiers into the care of the United Nations in December. The 235 youths, aged 15 to 19, had spent up to five years in the Congolese army.

      The United Nations Mission in Sierra Leone peacekeeping force deployed 17,500 troops across the country. At least 26,000 insurgents were said to have given up their weapons following a peace accord signed in May between the government, the rebels, and the UN to end the civil war, which began in 1991.

      Over two million had died during the 18-year civil war in The Sudan, which pitted the Islamic government in Khartoum against largely Christian rebels in the south of the country. Peace talks held in Nairobi, Kenya, in June failed to make any progress, but a short-lived cease-fire allowed some food aid to be delivered in the country for the first time in a decade.

      In order to allow for the deployment of the UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) peacekeeping force established in June 2000, both sides agreed to the creation of a 25-km-wide security zone in February 2001. Delays prevented this from occurring until mid-April, however. The UNMEE included the first-ever deployment of the UN's Standing High-Readiness Brigade—a multinational unit that had been under development since 1995. Despite accusations about preparations for war, both countries had respected the 2000 Algiers agreement, but tension between the two countries remained high through the end of the year.

Military Technology.

      Under the most lucrative defense contract ever awarded, the Pentagon selected the Lockheed Martin Corp. to build the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF). The contract had a potential total value of over $200 billion during the life of the program. The U.S. planned to buy nearly 3,000 JSFs for its air force, navy, and Marine Corps, while the U.K. was expected to procure up to 150.

      At the beginning of the new millennium, the era of ray guns was fast approaching. A laser device designed to destroy ballistic missiles as they were boosted on their flight produced its first test beam. The Airborne Laser (ABL) was designed to patrol near the borders of hostile countries. The ABL was to be installed in a modified Boeing 747 for further testing in 2002. An experimental 500-w laser built for the U.S. Army was field-tested successfully, destroying 98% of land mines and unexploded mortar shells in only a few minutes. The laser ignited the explosives by heating their metal or plastic casings. Tests of a weapon designed to heat a person's skin with a microwave beam showed that it can disperse crowds. The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory finished testing the system on human volunteers. It wanted to use this Active Denial Technology, which was claimed to be nonlethal, for peacekeeping or riot control.

      After nearly 24 hours of flight, a Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) landed successfully in South Australia after having taken off from its base in California, over 13,000 km away. This was the first nonstop flight across the Pacific Ocean by a UAV. The jet-powered Global Hawk was designed for surveillance of enemy territory. Its sensor package included a synthetic aperture radar, which can provide detailed photographs even through cloud cover. Although still in development, the Global Hawk was used during operations over Afghanistan. Also reportedly used in that conflict was a prototype armed version of the U.S.'s propeller-driven RQ-1 Predator UAV. It was said to have fired Hellfire antitank missiles at enemy positions. If true, this was the first time a UAV had fired a weapon against a target in war. The U.S. military was also developing miniature UAVs that could be launched and operated by one person. The Marine Corps began testing a 2-kg (4.4-lb) UAV—named Dragon Eye— that had a 114-cm (45.6-in) wingspan and was controlled by a unit worn on the soldier's chest. Both the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Navy were pursuing development of an unmanned combat air vehicle that could attack ground targets without having to put the lives of aircrew at risk. A prototype of the air force version, named X-45, began runway testing in December.

      The British test ship RV Triton, the world's largest powered trimaran, completed its first transatlantic crossing in September. The 90-m (295-ft)-long Triton was launched in 2000 to prove the triple-hull concept on a full-size ship. It was being evaluated by the Royal Navy and was attracting the attention of other navies. Trimarans offer greater speed and stability over conventional hull designs, especially in rough seas.

      Traditional military technologies also made news in 2001. The Belgian small arms manufacturer FN Herstal launched its new 5.56-mm-calibre F2000 rifle. This modular assault rifle included a 40-mm low-velocity grenade launcher and a computerized fire-control system with a laser rangefinder.

      The list of countries producing their own advanced weapons continued to grow. Iran announced that it had successfully flight-tested an indigenously produced solid-fuel short-range ballistic missile named Fateh 110. Solid propellants are harder to manufacture than liquid fuels but offer advantages in terms of superior storage, safety in handling, and faster launch times. According to Israeli and U.S. officials, Iran began serial production of its Shahab-3 liquid-fueled ballistic missile, which had a range of 1,300 km. Taiwan deployed the Tien Chi, a new ballistic missile capable of reaching China. It was believed that as many 50 could already be in service.

      The increasing employment of military forces far from home produced a growing volume of data (text, photographs, audio, and video) being transmitted over long distances, especially via satellite links. To meet this challenge, the United States launched its first Milstar-2 satellite capable of transmitting data at 1.544 megabytes per second, compared with 2.4 kilobytes per second for its predecessor.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      In December 2001 President Bush announced that the United States would withdraw from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty with Russia. Bush considered the treaty a roadblock to building the National Missile Defense (NMD) system and an anachronism from the Cold War that allowed so-called rogue states to develop long-range ballistic missiles. Despite months of negotiations, Russia and the U.S. failed to agree on how to amend the treaty or move beyond it. At a meeting in Texas in November, Bush and Russian President Putin agreed to reduce their nuclear arsenals by up to two-thirds over the next decade. Bush met NATO leaders in June to try to win endorsement for the NMD. Spain, Hungary, Italy, Poland, the Czech Republic, and the U.K. offered support, but France, Germany, and others were opposed, arguing that American defense needs would be better served by strengthening existing arms-control agreements.

      Meeting in New York City in July, the UN Conference on the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons failed to agree on a treaty to curb the spread of such weapons following U.S. opposition. The U.S. argued that a distinction had to be made between firearms used for traditional and cultural reasons and those that were traded illegally and led to or fueled wars. The U.S. also dropped its support for a protocol intended to include verification powers in the 1972 Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. The U.S. said it was unable to support the draft protocol because it would not achieve its stated goals and would hurt American interests. The document, already accepted by more than 50 other countries, would require member states to permit international inspection of sites that could be used for the development of biological weapons.

      Under a revised agreement with the U.S., South Korea was given the go-ahead to develop ballistic missiles capable of hitting targets in most of North Korea. Seoul would also be permitted to develop civilian rockets for research and commercial purposes. A 1979 agreement with the U.S. limited the range of South Korea's missiles to 180 km. Also, South Korea joined the Missile Technology Control Regime, which bars its members from providing any other country with technology to build missiles with a range over 300 km.

      A gratifying example of how arms-control treaties can work occurred when Turkey agreed to join the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning antipersonnel land mines, and in response the Greek Parliament dropped its opposition to ratifying the convention. Greece and Turkey also agreed to clear mines along their border. On January 29 Turkey and Georgia had agreed to remove land mines along their common border.

      Although it received little attention from news media, the last inspection under the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) took place in Russia. Under the treaty, signed by the Soviet Union and the United States during the height of the Cold War, an entire class of nuclear missiles and related equipment was eliminated. During 13 years of inspections (540 by the United States and 311 by the Soviet Union and its successor states), the INF established a new standard for openness in arms control by including short-notice inspections and around-the-clock monitoring of missile-assembly plants.

      Defense ministers from 10 of 14 Southern African Development Community countries in late July approved a draft of a mutual-defense pact that aimed to prevent conflict in the region and establish a collective approach to security.

Military and Society.

      A growing number of countries were looking abroad to fill in the ranks of their armed forces. The British army was recruiting foreign Commonwealth citizens in an attempt to reduce a shortage. South Africans, Australians, Canadians, and West Indians helped bring the strength of the army back up to 108,000 from 100,000. Spain actively recruited in Latin America to help make up for a shortfall in recruits resulting from the phasing out of conscription, and more than 300 Argentines and Uruguayans traveled there to enlist in the Spanish armed forces. France announced that it would end conscription in 2001, 18 months ahead of schedule.

      Women were finding careers in more military formations as well. The German government bowed to an order by the European Court of Justice and henceforth would allow women to serve in combat units of its armed forces. The court ruled on January 11 that the German ban on women in combat violated the principles enshrined in the 1976 guidelines on sexual equality adopted by the European Union (EU). The Canadian armed forces lifted restrictions barring women from serving aboard submarines. The decision was made after the navy calculated that the four secondhand submarines it had recently acquired from the U.K. had sufficient room to allow women privacy for dressing and taking showers. An Australian Defence Force study recommended that women be allowed to serve in ground combat units. Women already served aboard Australian warships and were allowed to pilot combat aircraft.

Armed Forces, Politics, and the Environment.

      The movement against live-fire military training gained momentum during the year. President Bush announced that the U.S. Navy would cease using the island of Vieques, off the coast of Puerto Rico, for bombing exercises by 2003. A group of islanders had filed a $100 million lawsuit claiming that the bombing caused significant damage to the environment and public health. The U.S. Navy, which had used Vieques for training exercises for about 60 years, maintained that it would not be able to find a suitable alternative site for amphibious warfare training. Protesters in Seoul called on the U.S. to close a bombing range it operated along the coast of South Korea. The protesters argued that the range was noisy and dangerous to local citizens. Opposition to foreign military training also surfaced in Kenya, where lawyers attempted to bring legal action against the British army over its use of two training areas. The complainants said that people had been injured and livestock killed as a result of unexploded munitions left by the British forces.

      The year was also one of contrasts. While Turkey announced the establishment of a National Space Agency to help develop policy for the military and civilian uses of space, New Zealand said it would scrap its air-combat capability by retiring its aging A-4K Skyhawk fighters and give priority to the army's ability to participate in peacekeeping operations. As a sign of growing European integration and independence from NATO, the EU Military Staff, formed to provide military analysis and advice, was declared operational. Nonaligned Austria hosted armed troops from several NATO countries on its soil for the first time for a Partnership for Peace exercise.

      Previous wars also continued to haunt the planet. Russian soldiers discovered several thousand German artillery shells dating from World War II buried at a military base in Kaliningrad. The stockpile was found next to chemical warfare warehouses belonging to the Russian Baltic Fleet.

      After years of negotiations the U.S. and Vietnam agreed to research jointly the effects of the chemical defoliant Agent Orange. Vietnam alleged that the health of up to one million people had been severely damaged by Agent Orange, a defoliant used by U.S. forces in Vietnam between 1962 and 1971. Some U.S. veterans groups also believed that their members suffered from exposure to dioxin, a known carcinogen found in Agent Orange.

Peter Saracino

▪ 2001

Introduction

      In 2000 the fall from power of Pres. Slobodan Milosevic in Yugoslavia and the unprecedented high-level contacts between senior officials of North and South Korea eased tensions in these two often volatile regions. Israeli-Palestinian relations sharply deteriorated, however, which raised the prospect of another Arab-Israeli war.

      Wars between nations and within nations convulsed a large swath of Africa stretching across the continent from Ethiopia to Sierra Leone. Efforts continued to be made to keep children from serving as combatants throughout the world. In May the UN adopted an optional protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child that set 18 as the minimum age for combat service. By the end of the year, 75 states had signed the protocol, and 3 had ratified it; 10 ratifications were needed for the protocol to enter into force. Pres. Bill Clinton signed the protocol in July even though the U.S. had never ratified the convention itself. More than 37,000 military personnel and civilian police from 88 countries were involved in the 15 UN peacekeeping operations in place around the world. In addition, the UN was involved in another 14 political and peace-building missions, 8 of which were in Africa.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      After years of procrastination the Russian government in April ratified both the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II (START-II) treaty and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The former action opened the way for the U.S. and Russia to begin negotiations on a START-III treaty aimed at making further cuts in the two countries' strategic nuclear arsenals. Little progress was made in these talks, however, as the Russians remained concerned that American efforts to develop a national missile defense system would undermine the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty, a document that the Russians insisted was the foundation for all nuclear arms control. When the signatories of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) met in April and May for their mandated five-year Review Conference, the avowed nuclear weapons states—the U.S., the U.K., France, Russia, and China—renewed an “unequivocal undertaking” to reduce and eventually eliminate their nuclear weapons without setting a timetable for these endeavours. The conference called upon India, Pakistan, and Israel—all possessing nuclear weapons—to join the NPT as nonnuclear weapons states. At the conference, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan warned that the multilateral disarmament machinery had “started to rust” because of an “apparent lack of political will to use it.”

      The group monitoring the implementation of the 1997 convention that banned antipersonnel land mines reported in October that while the international trade in these weapons had been halted, their use continued. New land-mine victims had been reported in 71 countries. The UN estimated that 27 people were killed and 41 seriously injured by land mines each day.

      The Ukrainian Rada (parliament) in March ratified the 1992 Open Skies Treaty and thus left Russia, Belarus, and Kyrgyzstan as the only signatories yet to approve it. Russia and Belarus had to ratify the treaty before it could enter into effect. The Russian parliament continued to charge that the treaty was not in Russia's national interest.

United States.

      The end of the Cold War notwithstanding, American military forces continued to be called upon to meet an unprecedented number of overseas commitments. Military leaders warned that the maintenance, training, and modernization of the armed forces had suffered in order to pay for these heavy commitments. In September the members of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff told Congress that the armed forces needed a significant increase in spending in the years ahead in order to maintain American military supremacy. The chiefs of the navy and air force called for their services to receive $20 billion–$30 billion more each year, while the other service heads pressed for similar if smaller increases.

      With the regular armed forces stretched thin, reserve and national guard units played an increased role in operations around the world. The army announced plans to align the eight National Guard divisions with active-duty army corps to more fully integrate them with the active-duty force. While all four services met their active-duty enlistment goals for the first time in several years, the army, navy, and air force reserves fell short in their recruitment efforts. The increased demands on the guard and reserves were cited as one of the main reasons for this shortfall. Army leaders were also disturbed by the high number of middle-grade officers leaving the service.

      In August Pres. Bill Clinton signed the $287.5 billion defense appropriations bill for fiscal year 2001. An increase of $17.5 billion over the previous year, the appropriations bill was also $3.2 billion higher than requested by the administration. While providing full funding for such modernization programs as the F-22 fighter, the CVN-77 nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, and continued work on a national missile defense system, the bill provided less money than requested for the Joint Strike Fighter and the proposed LPD-17 amphibious ship program. The rival Joint Strike Fighter concept demonstrators, one built by the Boeing Co. and the other by the Lockheed Martin Corp., made their maiden flights later in the year. Clinton also complained that Congress had made significant cuts in the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program and several other foreign military cooperation initiatives. He singled out as troubling the failure to fund the chemical weapons destruction facility at Shchuchye, Russia, which he said was vital to American security and international nonproliferation efforts. In October Clinton signed the $309.9 billion fiscal year 2001 defense authorization bill despite his misgivings about several of its provisions.

      Following several unsuccessful tests of components of the proposed national missile defense system, President Clinton in September announced that he would leave to his successor the decision on whether to deploy the system. Critics charged that the technology in the proposed system was fundamentally flawed. On a brighter note, the army demonstrated that a directed-energy weapon could shoot down a short-range ballistic rocket. On June 6 the U.S. Army's Tactical High Energy Laser destroyed a Katyusha rocket in flight. The system detonated the rocket's high-explosive warhead with its deuterium fluoride chemical laser weapon.

      More than 4,600 military personnel were assigned to help fight forest fires in the Western states during the summer. In July, because of a vaccine shortage, the Pentagon was forced to cut back its controversial program to vaccinate all military personnel against anthrax. Social issues in the military once again made the headlines. Charges of sexual misconduct reached the highest ranks of the army when that service's highest-ranking female officer, Lieut. Gen. Claudia Kennedy, revealed that a fellow general had made inappropriate sexual contact with her in 1996. The Pentagon's “don't ask, don't tell” policy regarding homosexuals in uniform continued to be much criticized. Following a report in March that found that antigay behaviour was commonplace in the military, the Department of Defense in July launched an education program seeking to eliminate it. An American soldier was sentenced to life imprisonment for the killing of an 11-year-old ethnic Albanian girl in Kosovo, and a subsequent army study revealed that some U.S. peacekeepers in Kosovo were not properly trained for their noncombat roles.

NATO.

      Nine European states—Albania, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia—actively sought NATO membership, but NATO Secretary-General Lord Robertson announced in May that there would be no new members before 2002. That month Croatia became the 24th member of the NATO-sponsored Partnership for Peace, and U.S. Air Force Gen. Joseph Ralston took command of the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe. The historical animosities between NATO members Greece and Turkey erupted once again during a NATO military exercise in the Aegean Sea in October, which prompted Greece to withdraw its forces from the maneuvers. Spain held its last draft lottery, and the Spanish military was to be an all-volunteer force by the end of 2001. Several other European states reduced the terms conscripts had to serve in the armed forces.

United Kingdom.

      Bowing to a ruling by the European Court of Human Rights, the British government in January ended its ban on service in the armed forces by openly gay men and women. The Ministry of Defence (MoD) issued a new code of social conduct for military personnel reflecting this change. As an interim measure to bolster its aging airlift fleet, the MoD announced in September that it would lease four American C-17 airlifters. Earlier in the year Secretary of State for Defence Geoffrey Hoon had announced that the U.K. would ultimately purchase 25 A400M military transports being developed by the Airbus Military Co. Commitments from six other European nations for an additional 200 aircraft indicated that the international program would go ahead. All 12 of the Royal Navy's attack submarines were withdrawn from service to inspect for and correct faults in their reactor cooling systems.

France.

      In July the contract was awarded for the construction of a fourth Le Triomphant-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, to be named Le Terrible. It would be armed with the M51 ballistic missile due to enter service in 2008. Sea trials for the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle were postponed after it broke a propeller in November. The carrier replaced the Foch, which was sold to Brazil. In October the government announced that women would be able to serve in virtually any post in the army, except in the Foreign Legion.

Germany.

      In May Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping announced a major overhaul of the Bundeswehr, noting that it was still structured for Cold War scenarios and was not particularly suited for its contemporary crisis-management commitments. His plan called for 2003 troop levels to be reduced by 70,000 to 255,000 and the defense budget to be cut by 2.6%. Only 77,000 conscripts would be in the military, while all the armed forces would be open to female volunteers.

The Balkans.

      The Kosovo Force (KFOR), the NATO-led international force sent into Yugoslavia to enforce the fragile peace in Kosovo, a Serbian province in Yugoslavia, marked its first anniversary in June, and most observers believed this international military presence would be required for years to come. During the year KFOR reached its full strength of 50,000 men and women. Nearly 42,500 troops from more than 30 countries were deployed in the province, and another 7,500 provided rear support through contingents based in Macedonia, Albania, and Greece. From April until October, KFOR was commanded by Headquarters Eurocorps, led by Spanish Lieut. Gen. Juan Ortuño. A significant part of the Eurocorps staff moved from Strasbourg, France, to the KFOR Headquarters in Pristina, Kosovo; this marked the first time that NATO had entrusted command of an external operation to a unit that was not a part of its own integrated military structure. Thirty-three nations, of which 15 were not members of NATO, continued to provide troops to the Stabilization Force (SFOR) in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina. A restructuring plan aimed to reduce SFOR from some 32,000 troops to approximately 20,000.

Turkey.

      In February the Kurdistan Workers' Party announced that it was ending its war for self-rule within Turkey and instead would pursue its aims by peaceful means. Fighting subsided in the country's southeastern provinces. In April, however, more than 5,000 Turkish troops, backed by jet fighters and combat helicopters, made another incursion into northern Iraq to combat Kurdish rebels there. In September a Turkish court acquitted journalist Nadire Mater of charges that she had insulted the military in a book about the war against Kurdish separatists. Dissatisfied with the high bids, Turkey postponed several major procurement programs. The largest was an estimated $7 billion contest to provide 1,000 new main battle tanks, the country's most expensive defense purchase, which was put on hold in April.

Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States.

      As the year began, the Russian military was engaged in another full-scale war to regain control over the breakaway republic of Chechnya. This time it was more successful than in 1995–96. The offensive that had begun the previous September reduced the Chechen capital, Grozny, to rubble, and by mid-March the Russians had claimed victory. Bitter fighting continued, however, in the mountainous south of the republic, and the Russian military admitted that it was unable to pacify the entire region. Ambushes and hit-and-run raids by the Chechen guerrillas inflicted casualties on Russian forces throughout the rest of the year. Military officials acknowledged that nearly 2,500 Russian servicemen had been killed and more than 7,000 wounded in this second war in Chechnya.

      In early August the nuclear-powered missile submarine Kursk, one of the newest in the navy, sank in the Barents Sea with the loss of all 118 crewmen. The vessel had been participating in an exercise of the Northern Fleet. While the Russians maintained that the Kursk had sunk after colliding with a foreign submarine, Western intelligence services postulated that the ship had gone down following an onboard accident with one of its weapons. Although the submarine lay in relatively shallow water not far from its home port, the Russian navy was unable to mount an effective rescue operation. More than one week after the sinking, Norwegian and British divers were able to enter the submarine and confirm that all aboard had perished. The contradictory and often inaccurate information on the incident released by the navy and the government provoked an unprecedented public outcry.

      Russia's relations with NATO remained strained owing to the latter's criticism of Russian actions in Chechnya and Russia's continued unhappiness with NATO policies in the Balkans. The Ministry of Defense announced that it would not participate in any military exercises during the year that took place within the framework of NATO's Partnership for Peace. In April acting president Vladimir Putin approved a new security doctrine, one that turned away from increased openness and cooperation with the West.

      Russia's two most senior military leaders engaged in a public row over the best way to reform the Russian military. Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin, the chief of the General Staff, emphasized the conventional forces in his reform plan, one that would slash the number of strategic nuclear weapons and end the independent status of the Strategic Missile Troops (SMT). Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, a former head of the SMT, argued that the SMT was in better shape than any of the other services and to downgrade it would highlight Russia's loss of superpower status. Neither man was a clear winner when the Russian Security Council in August decided to make major cuts in all the armed forces. The military was to be cut by 350,000 personnel by 2003, which would leave a total of 850,000 men and women in uniform. The Ground Forces were scheduled for the largest reduction, some 180,000 troops, but the SMT would also be reduced and eventually merged with the air force. Other sources indicated that the “power agencies”—the 12 departments that fielded armed forces of one kind or another—would lose 600,000 troops over the next five years.

      The government pledged to increase defense spending in the 2001 budget to 218,940,000,000 rubles (about $7,500,000,000). The SMT conducted the first test of the mobile version of the Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missiles, but experts said that serial production might be delayed for as long as 10 years. With few domestic contracts, Russian defense plants continued to rely on foreign sales to survive. In October the Russians signed a series of multimillion-dollar arms contracts with India involving jet fighters, main battle tanks, and the former Soviet aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov.

      Militant Islamic fighters operating in the mountainous region where Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan shared common borders continued to worry the governments in the region. In August hundreds of the militants, many believed to have come originally from Afghanistan, crossed into Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan from Tajikistan. Such incursions led Uzbekistan to mine parts of its border with Tajikistan. On October 11 the presidents of the six member states of the 1992 Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Collective Security Treaty (Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan) signed an agreement pledging to create a joint rapid-reaction force to go to the aid of any member threatened by external aggression or terrorism. As the Taliban forces in Afghanistan approached the border with Tajikistan, which was defended by Russian army and border troops, fears rose that the civil war in Afghanistan could expand into an international conflict. The Russians pledged to defend Tajikistan in accordance with the CIS treaty.

Middle East and North Africa.

      Peace talks between Israel and Syria were broken off in January when the two sides could not agree on the future of the Golan Heights. Israel ended its 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon in May. In July President Clinton invited Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak and Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat to Camp David, Maryland, for peace talks. Although the participants were said to have been close to a historic agreement, the talks finally broke off after 15 days over the status of Jerusalem. In late September the whole peace process began to unravel. Israelis and Palestinians clashed first in Jerusalem at an ancient site both regarded as holy, and the violence quickly spread to the West Bank and Gaza Strip, which prompted UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan to warn that the region was close to “an all-out war.” On October 7 the conflict widened to the Lebanese-Israeli border, where Hezbollah militants abducted three Israeli soldiers. After two Israeli soldiers were lynched in the West Bank town of Ram Allah on October 12, Israeli combat helicopters attacked Palestinian headquarters in Ram Allah and Gaza City. The Middle East violence spread to U.S. forces that same day when terrorists conducted a suicide attack against the guided-missile destroyer USS Cole as it prepared to refuel in Aden, Yemen. Seventeen sailors were killed in the blast, and another 39 were injured.

      The UN assembled another weapons-inspection team to verify that Iraq was free of chemical, biological, and nuclear arms, but Iraq refused to allow the team entry. In December 1999 the UN had said it would suspend its economic sanctions against Iraq if Iraq would cooperate with the new team. The U.S. and the U.K. continued to enforce the no-fly zones in the north and south of Iraq. During 2000 Iran conducted several successful tests of the Shahab-3 intermediate-range ballistic missile. The 1,300-km (800-mi)-range missile was believed to be based on North Korea's No Dong ballistic missile.

South and Central Asia.

      Pakistan's chief executive, Gen. Pervez Musharraf (see Biographies (Musharraf, Pervez )), in September offered to sign a no-war pact with India and join in a mutual reduction of forces, but the Indians did not accept his proposals.

      The opposition forces of Ahmad Shad Masoud continued to frustrate the Taliban Islamic militia's effort to seize control of all of Afghanistan, but their resistance seemed to be waning. In September the Taliban seized one of Masoud's last strongholds, the northern provincial capital Taloqan. Further Taliban gains took them to within a few kilometres of the border with Tajikistan.

      Sri Lanka's 17-year-long civil war showed little signs of abating. The separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam mounted a major offensive in April in which they seized Elephant Pass, the gateway to the Jaffna Peninsula. While unable to capture Jaffna City itself, they inflicted heavy casualties on the Sri Lankan government troops. In October they shot down a government Mi-24 helicopter gunship and damaged another in an offensive to seize the government military base of Nagarkovil on the eastern coast of the Jaffna Peninsula.

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

      In what was seen as an effort to influence the March presidential elections in Taiwan, China threatened to use force to retake Taiwan should the Taiwanese continue to postpone unification talks. The threat prompted warnings from the U.S. and the deployment of an American aircraft carrier to the region. A Chinese government policy paper on national defense issues released in October blamed the Taiwanese government and the U.S. for the military tension in the region and repeated the threat of force to reunite Taiwan with the People's Republic.

      Long branded a rogue regime and a major threat to peace and security in the region, North Korea made a number of peaceful gestures toward both South Korea and the U.S. These included a meeting of the leaders of both Koreas and a visit to Washington by Vice-Marshal Jo Myong Rok, first vice-chairman of North Korea's National Defense Commission (NDC), who met with President Clinton. This was followed by a visit to North Korea by U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright. During this visit Kim Jong Il, the chairman of the NDC, pledged that North Korea would conduct no further launches of its Taepodong long-range ballistic missile if it received aid in launching satellites. The U.S. and North Korea failed to reach an agreement, however, following later bilateral talks on this subject.

      To provide security and maintain law and order, the UN deployed a force of about 8,000 military personnel and over 1,400 civilian police to East Timor as that country made its transition to independence following years of Indonesian rule. One of the force's main tasks was to prevent pro-Indonesian East Timorese militiamen from infiltrating back into East Timor from the Indonesian province of West Timor. As a result, that 170-km (105-mi) border became one of the most heavily defended in Southeast Asia. Philippine armed forces battled Muslim separatist guerrillas claiming that they were fighting for an independent Islamic state in the impoverished southern Philippines. Early in the year, government troops and members of the Moro Islamic Liberation Front repeatedly clashed on the island of Mindanao. In September the government conducted a major assault, backed by fighters and helicopter gunships, to free a number of hostages held for ransom by rebels on the island of Jolo.

Caribbean and Latin America.

      In a bloodless coup the military in Ecuador in January overthrew the president and installed the country's vice president in his stead. In Colombia the drug war and the civil war became even more closely linked. Forces of the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) became bolder and more successful, routing government troops in May and again in October. The U.S. pledged to provide $1.3 billion in military equipment and training to enable Colombian soldiers to seize the drug-producing plantations that were often protected by FARC and other insurgents. In late September the U.S. suspended support and training for two Colombian army brigades because of allegations of human rights abuses. The next month the government dismissed 89 officers and 299 soldiers it accused of misconduct.

Africa South of the Sahara.

      Repercussions from the 1994 genocide in Rwanda continued to convulse Central Africa, nowhere worse than in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. There the 1999 Lusaka cease-fire agreement had little effect, and troops from six countries as well as numerous indigenous and foreign rebel groups continued to tear the country apart. While the UN authorized a military peacekeeping mission of more than 5,000 troops, Pres. Laurent Kabila balked at allowing them to deploy. In late August he approved their deployment, but at the end of the year only a few hundred were in place. In June troops from Rwanda and Uganda, once allies in the struggle to oust Kabila, fought for control of the strategic northeastern city of Kisangani. Several UN-brokered cease-fires failed, and troops from both countries finally evacuated the city. Flouting the cease-fire, Kabila in July began an offensive in Équateur province against the rebel Movement for the Liberation of Congo. After some initial successes, his forces were driven out of the town of Dongo in September. A peace agreement was also of little value in neighbouring Burundi. An agreement signed in September aimed at ending the seven years of war between Tutsi and Hutu did not stop the killing as Hutu rebels continued to clash with government soldiers.

      The civil war in Sierra Leone entered its ninth year—and one in which UN peacekeepers suffered several embarrassing setbacks. In January the rebel Revolutionary United Front (RUF) stepped up its attacks on civilians and also captured and disarmed several UN peacekeepers. When the RUF marched on the capital, Freetown, in May, Great Britain, the former colonial power, sent a naval-marine task force to evacuate foreign nationals from the country. On May 19 the UN Security Council raised the authorized strength of the mission in Sierra Leone to 13,000, which made it the largest current UN peacekeeping operation. That month the RUF detained some 500 UN soldiers. Some were soon released, but 233 UN peacekeepers and military observers were held until they could be rescued in July following heavy fighting. In late August, 12 members of a British military training unit assisting the Sierra Leone army were captured by a rebel group calling themselves the West Side Boys. Five were released, but after mock executions of the others were held, British special forces mounted a dramatic operation in mid-September to rescue the remaining hostages. The government and the RUF signed a cease-fire in November, opening the way for further direct talks. Rebel groups were active in the border areas of Liberia and Guinea. Guinea charged the RUF from neighbouring Sierra Leone of having been involved in rebel attacks on the border town of Macenta in September, while Liberian officials accused Guinea of having been behind the rebel attack on the northern town of Zorzor in October.

      In Côte d'Ivoire rebel military units sided with civilian demonstrators in ending the military government of Pres. Robert Gueï after Gueï declared himself the winner in October's presidential election. In an effort to bolster the region's crisis-response capabilities, U.S. military and civilian instructors in September began training Senegalese troops to lead a brigade of peacekeeping troops.

      Following a lull of more than a year in its border war with Eritrea, Ethiopia began an offensive in May after negotiations to revive the Organization of African Unity (OAU) peace plan had collapsed. Under pressure, Eritrea withdrew from Ethiopian territory near Zela Ambesa that it had held for nearly two years. The UN Security Council imposed an arms embargo on the two countries in an effort to restart the peace negotiations. Ethiopian forces advanced into Eritrea, and Ethiopian jets bombed targets near Asmara and Massawa. Having recovered all its territory, Ethiopia on May 31 declared the border war over but renewed its offensive early in June. On June 18 the foreign ministers of both countries signed a preliminary cease-fire agreement after accepting the OAU peace plan. That included a UN peacekeeping mission to monitor the cease-fire and the Ethiopian withdrawal from Eritrean territory. The leaders of the two countries signed a peace agreement on December 12.

Douglas L. Clarke

▪ 2000

Introduction

      Few regions of the world were free of military conflict during 1999. In Europe the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which had won the Cold War without firing a shot, launched a 78-day bombing campaign against Serbia in an effort to stop the government of Yugoslav Pres. Slobodan Milosevic from mistreating ethnic Albanians in the province of Kosovo. Russia once again engaged in military operations against the breakaway republic of Chechnya. India and Pakistan once more exchanged blows over Kashmir. The long-running civil wars in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka showed no signs of resolution. In Africa neighbours Ethiopia and Eritrea disputed a border region, while Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Congo [Kinshasa]), and Sierra Leone all were battlegrounds during the year. In Latin America the civil war in Colombia dragged on, while in Asia there were skirmishes between the two Koreas, and a UN peacekeeping force was called in to curb the violence in the Indonesian province of East Timor. The UN Security Council also authorized a peacekeeping force for Sierra Leone and opened negotiations on a 15,000-strong force for Congo (Kinshasa).

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      The U.S. Senate dealt a major blow to the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty when it rejected it in October. Opponents of the treaty, supported by a CIA report that said the agency could not precisely monitor low-level nuclear tests by Russia, charged that it was unverifiable. Supporters had warned that without U.S. ratification, known or potential nuclear powers such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea were unlikely to sign the treaty.

      There was little progress during the year in other nuclear-arms negotiations. While Russia accepted a U.S. proposal to discuss possible amendments to the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the Russians remained adamantly opposed to any significant changes. Russian spokesmen charged that U.S. missile defense legislation and testing indicated that the U.S. planned to abrogate the treaty unilaterally and warned that such an action would undermine all nuclear arms agreements between the two countries. Disturbed by this issue and by NATO's actions against Yugoslavia, the Russian legislature continued to refuse to ratify the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II treaty.

      While the 1997 Ottawa Landmines Convention, which banned the use, stockpiling, production, or transfer of antipersonnel land mines, entered into force on March 1, it did not prevent the continued use of those weapons. Both ethnic Serbs and ethnic Albanians planted mines during the civil war in Kosovo, and Russian troops used them against Islamic insurgents in Dagestan.

      In March the 30 signatories of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty agreed on the basic steps they would take to “adapt” the Cold War-era treaty to the current security environment in Europe. The major change would be to replace the treaty's bloc-to-bloc limits with a system of national and territorial ceilings. The new treaty was signed during the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe's (OSCE's) November summit meeting in Istanbul after Russia pledged to give up two of its military bases in Georgia and to withdraw its troops from Moldova. Russia admitted that because of the unrest in the Caucasus it had more military equipment in the treaty's flanks region than was allowed. Several signatories said they would not ratify the new agreement until the Russians met their obligations in that region.

United States.

      The $288.8 billion defense authorization bill for fiscal 2000, $8.3 billion more than the administration had requested, included $56 billion for weapons procurement. The bill also provided for continued development of missile defense systems. Pres. Bill Clinton in July had signed a bill calling for the deployment of a ground-based national missile defense system “as soon as technologically possible.” During the year there were successes in testing system components. The Theater High-Altitude Area Defense missile scored successful intercepts in June and August after six consecutive failures. In October a prototype interceptor for the national missile defense system launched from Kwajalein Atoll in the Marshall Islands successfully intercepted a target Minuteman intercontinental ballistic missile that had been launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California.

      The $267.8 billion defense appropriation bill provided $3.3 billion for weapons and programs that the military had not requested, including extra money for air force C-17 transports and F-15 fighters and for a navy amphibious assault ship. In a surprise move the House of Representatives vetoed production funds for the air force's F-22 Raptor program, but money for continued development and evaluation was returned to the final version of the bill. The plane would have to pass stiff testing requirements before it could enter production.

      A study commissioned by the Department of Defense said that it was possible that the mysterious “Gulf War syndrome” could have been caused by a drug given to troops during the 1991 conflict. Some 250,000 troops had received doses of an experimental drug, pyridostigmine bromide, to protect them against possible Iraqi use of Soman nerve gas. Defense officials reported that the program to inoculate all service personnel with anthrax vaccine was going well but admitted that several hundred had refused the mandatory shots.

      Retention and recruiting continued to be a problem for all the services. In an attempt to meet its recruiting goals as the fiscal year drew to a close, the army offered a special $6,000 bonus to new enlistees. The air force, which had been forced to freeze retirements and resignations for some 120,000 personnel during the Kosovo bombing campaign, ended the fiscal year more than 10,000 persons under its mandated strength. In an effort to make military service more attractive, Congress voted a 4.8% pay raise for the military to take effect on Jan. 1, 2000. This figure was 0.4% higher than the Clinton administration's request and would make the pay hike the largest for the military in 18 years.

      The U.S. Joint Forces Command was established in October, replacing the U.S. Atlantic Command. In addition to assuming the latter's geographic area of responsibility, the new command would be the lead agency in developing the training, doctrine, experimentation, and procedures for military operations involving more than one service. It was also given the mission of providing military assistance to U.S. civil authorities in the event of an attack or accident involving weapons of mass destruction. Concern about the possibility of “cyberattacks” against military computer networks prompted the creation of a Joint Task Force for Computer Network Defense within the U.S. Space Command.

      The pilot of a U.S. Marine Corps jet that had caused the death of 20 skiers in Italy when the aircraft clipped the cable of their gondola in February 1998 was acquitted of manslaughter by a court-martial in March. He was, however, subsequently convicted of obstruction of justice for having helped destroy a videotape made during the flight and was sentenced to six months in prison. He and the plane's navigator were also dismissed from the marines. After press reports that U.S. soldiers had massacred hundreds of South Korean villagers near the village of No Gun Ri in July 1950, early in the Korean War, Secretary of Defense William Cohen in October ordered an investigation of the allegations.

NATO.

      The Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland formally became members of NATO in March. (See Special Report: NATO at 50 .) The military campaign against Yugoslavia was the largest military effort ever undertaken by the alliance. During the year a number of changes in NATO's top civilian and military leadership were made or announced. Secretary-General Javier Solana (see Biographies (Solana Madariaga, Javier )) accepted the post of the European Union's first high representative for the common foreign and security policy. He was also picked to head the Western European Union. At NATO Solana was replaced in October by Lord Robertson of Port Ellen (George Robertson), the former British defense minister. In a controversial move President Clinton announced in July that Gen. Wesley Clark, who commanded all NATO and U.S. forces in Europe, would leave these posts in May 2000, two months ahead of schedule. NATO approved Clinton's nomination of U.S. Air Force Gen. Joseph Ralston to replace Clark.

      NATO's new military command structure took effect on September 1. It consisted of two strategic commands: Allied Command Europe, headquartered in Mons, Belg., and Allied Command Atlantic, located in Norfolk, Va., each with subordinate regional and subregional commands.

United Kingdom.

      Geoff Hoon replaced George Robertson as secretary of state for defense in October. Several steps were taken during 1999 to implement the new Joint Rapid Reaction Forces; the 16 Air Assault Brigade was established in September, to be fully operational in 2004, and the tri-service Joint Helicopter Command was established in October.

      In September the European Court of Human Rights ruled that Britain's ban on homosexuals' serving in the armed forces was a violation of the basic human right to privacy. The court upheld the U.K.'s policy of not allowing women to serve in the Royal Marines.

France.

      Only 68,000 of the 186,000-strong army were conscripts as France reached the midpoint in its six-year conversion to an all-volunteer military. The commissioning of the 40,600-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle was delayed until the spring of 2000. To ensure that France retained a carrier capability in the interim, the retirement of the aging conventionally powered carrier Foch was postponed until July 1, 2000.

Germany.

      Financial problems forced the government to cut DM 18.5 billion (DM 1 = about U.S. $0.55) from the defense budget over the next four years, with DM 3.5 billion being taken from the DM 48.8 billion earmarked for defense in 2000. Several multinational programs were affected, such as the European NH-90 military transport helicopter.

      Following a Ministry of Defense report that the many domestic and foreign commitments of the armed forces had stretched their resources to the maximum, Defense Minister Rudolf Scharping in May established a commission to study the future of the armed forces. It was scheduled to submit its findings in September 2000. Two of Europe's most important defense and aerospace companies, Germany's DaimlerChrysler Aerospace and France's Aerospatiale Matra, announced in October that they would merge.

Yugoslavia.

      The security situation in the Serbian province of Kosovo deteriorated in January when Yugoslav army and special police troops escalated their offensive against the Kosovar Albanians. Under pressure from the six-nation Contact Group, the two sides met at Rambouillet, near Paris, France, in February and March to seek a peace agreement. The Kosovar Albanian delegation signed the proposed agreement, but the Yugoslav delegation refused. Serb military and police forces then immediately stepped up their repression of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. Unable to complete their mission because of obstruction from Serb forces, the OSCE observer force withdrew from Kosovo on March 20.

      When a final attempt to persuade Yugoslav Pres. Slobodan Milosevic to stop the attacks on Kosovar Albanians failed, NATO began Operation Allied Force on March 24. During the next 11 weeks, aircraft from 13 NATO countries flew more than 37,000 sorties, of which more than 14,000 were strike missions that dropped 23,614 bombs in an air campaign designed to destroy and disrupt the Yugoslav army and special police units in Kosovo. Strategic targets throughout Yugoslavia, such as the integrated air defense system, military command and control headquarters, petroleum storage facilities, and electrical power stations were also attacked by aircraft and cruise missiles. Some of the alliance's most sophisticated weapons systems were used, such as the American B-2 and F-117 stealth aircraft, which dropped bombs guided by inputs from the global positioning satellite system. While great care was taken to avoid civilian casualties, there were mistakes, as when, through faulty intelligence, the Chinese embassy in Belgrade was bombed instead of the intended target, the Yugoslav military supply and procurement office.

      NATO had great respect for Serb air defenses. While only two NATO aircraft were lost in combat, one was an F-117, supposedly invisible to radars. Postcombat analyses revealed that the Serbs had been particularly skillful in camouflaging their equipment and in deploying dummy tanks, artillery, and bridges.

      The air campaign ended on June 10 after the Serbs had agreed to stop all hostilities, withdraw their military forces from Kosovo, and accept a NATO-led international security force (KFOR) in Kosovo. This settlement was endorsed by the UN Security Council. The Russians stole a march on KFOR by sending 200 paratroopers serving with the peacekeepers in Bosnia and Herzegovina to seize the airport at Pristina, the capital of Kosovo, before KFOR entered the province. This led to a tense standoff in Pristina for several days, during which the KFOR commander, British Lieut. Gen. Sir Michael Jackson, invoked his right to appeal to his national superiors and refused an order from his NATO superior, U.S. Gen. Wesley Clark, to oust the Russians. The impasse was broken on June 18 when the Russians, who had insisted that they be given a sector of their own in Kosovo, agreed to divide their contribution of 3,600 troops to KFOR among the sectors controlled by France, Germany, and the U.S.; Italy and the U.K. controlled the other two sectors.

      One of KFOR's missions was to monitor, verify, and enforce the voluntary commitment by the Kosovo Liberation Army to turn in its weapons, a process that was completed on September 20. Soon afterward, KFOR reached its full strength of 50,000, with 42,000 troops serving in five multinational brigades within Kosovo and another 8,000 providing support in neighbouring Macedonia and Greece. More than 30 nations contributed to the force, including all NATO members except Iceland and Luxembourg and such other diverse participants as Finland, Ukraine, and the United Arab Emirates.

Turkey.

      Turkish forces continued to make periodic incursions into northern Iraq in pursuit of Kurdistan Workers Party guerrillas. The Supreme Military Council in August expelled 58 commissioned and noncommissioned officers from the army for involvement in extreme religious or political activities. The parliament in November passed a bill allowing draftees to buy their way out of military service, with the money raised earmarked for earthquake damage reconstruction.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

      Russian disapproval of NATO's expansion and its intervention in Yugoslavia sparked some military actions and rhetoric that were reminiscent of the Cold War. In June the Russian armed forces carried out their largest joint maneuvers since the collapse of the Soviet Union in a scenario designed to counter NATO “aggression.” Nuclear-capable bombers probed NATO air defenses in Norway and Iceland. Later in the year similar simulated missions were flown near Alaska. The draft of a new military doctrine submitted to the State Duma in October was confrontational in tone and underlined the primacy of nuclear deterrence in ensuring Russia's security. Many analysts were concerned about the Ministry of Defense's emphasis on nuclear weapons. With the conventional forces in desperate need of new equipment, critics charged that too high a percentage of the scarce procurement funds was being spent on nuclear weapons, such as the new Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile. To improve its air-launched nuclear capability, Russia finally came to terms with Ukraine over the purchase of 11 ex-Soviet strategic bombers inherited by Ukraine when the Soviet Union collapsed. These included eight Tu-160 Blackjack supersonic bombers, which more than doubled the air force's inventory.

      In early August several hundred Islamic militants from Chechnya crossed into neighbouring Dagestan, where they seized several villages in the mountainous west of that province. Russian military and police units were initially unable to dislodge them, and in early September a second and larger invading force entered Dagestan from Chechnya, joining forces with local Muslim militants. When the Russians responded with more intensive air and artillery strikes, the militants widened the conflict with terrorist bomb attacks, first in Dagestan's second largest city, Buinaksk, and then in Moscow and other cities in Russia proper. This prompted the Russians to launch a bombing campaign throughout Chechnya, one they claimed was modeled on NATO's attacks on Yugoslavia. On September 10 Russian ground forces moved into Chechnya from the north, and within a month they controlled one-third of the republic, the flat steppe north of the Terek River. They also took control of the heights on the border with Georgia to the south and cut the main road to Ingushetia to the west. In an offensive that was far more cautious and deliberate than that in the humiliating 1994–96 war in Chechnya, Russian ground troops slowly moved on the Chechen capital, Grozny, supported by air strikes and heavy artillery. The declared aim of the invasion, which involved 100,000 Russian troops, was to establish a security zone to block the militants' access to neighbouring regions, but on December 25 the Russians began an assault on Grozny itself. More than 200,000 Chechen refugees fled to the adjacent republics.

      The paratroopers' dash to seize Pristina airport and the early successes in northern Chechnya improved the Russian military's tarnished image, but the systemic problems of the armed forces were largely untouched. Officers continued to leave the services in large numbers, which created serious shortages, especially at the platoon and unit level. Abuse of recruits, trading in stolen military property, and corruption remained rampant.

      The 1992 CIS Collective Security Treaty expired in April, and only six of the nine signatories chose to extend it; Armenia, Belarus, Kazakstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan signed the prolongation protocol, while Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan refused to do so. The loose GUAM grouping became GUUAM that same month when Uzbekistan officially joined the organization founded by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova as a counterbalance to the Russian-led CIS. Those countries pledged to work jointly to resolve regional conflicts and crises. The CIS treaty was invoked in October when the members agreed to help Kyrgyzstan cope with the ethnic Uzbek Islamic rebels operating in the mountainous Osh region. Uzbekistan participated in this effort on a bilateral basis, providing both troops and combat aircraft. The violence spilled over into neighbouring Tajikistan when Uzbek aircraft bombed suspected rebel locations in August and October.

      There was substantial progress in Tajikistan in disbanding the military forces of the United Tajik Opposition, as called for in the peace agreement that ended that country's civil war. Russia and Tajikistan signed a treaty in April preserving Russia's right to station some 20,000 Russian army and border troops in Tajikistan.

Middle East and North Africa.

      The UN Security Council could not agree on a new weapons-inspection regime in Iraq, nor would it lift the economic sanctions against that country. Throughout the year U.S. and British planes patrolled the northern and southern “no-fly zones,” where they were regularly fired upon by Iraqi air-defense forces. The planes retaliated against antiaircraft missile and artillery batteries, radar sites, and communications facilities. Israel in November was successful in the first integrated test of all the components of the Arrow antitactical missile weapon system. The Israeli-American system was scheduled to achieve its initial operating capability in 2000.

South and Central Asia.

      After having conducted a series of nuclear weapons tests in 1998, India and Pakistan demonstrated in 1999 that they had the means to deliver those weapons. In April India successfully launched its Agni-II ballistic missile and declared that the nuclear-capable system was operational. Pakistan quickly followed suit with its Ghauri-II missile. In May the two countries exchanged artillery fire as the Indians sought to dislodge Pakistani-backed Muslim militants from several mountain peaks in the Indian-controlled region of Kashmir. Supported by fighter jets and attack helicopters and fighting at altitudes above 5,000 m (16,400 ft), the Indian army finally repulsed the insurgents after a 10-week campaign. On August 10 an Indian jet fighter shot down a Pakistani naval reconnaissance aircraft that allegedly had penetrated Indian airspace in the coastal Rann of Kutch region. In October the Pakistani military ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his government after Sharif tried to fire army chief Gen. Pervaiz Musharraf. Musharraf, who replaced Sharif, announced a unilateral reduction of troops along the border with India. There continued to be skirmishes, however, along the line of control in disputed Kashmir.

      While controlling more than 90% of Afghanistan, the Taliban Islamic militia remained frustrated in their attempts to seize the remainder. Their summer offensive initially dislodged the opposition forces of Ahmad Shah Masoud from their positions north of Kabul, but a counteroffensive by Masoud regained most of the lost territory. In October the Taliban advanced on the northern city of Taloqan but were unable to seize it before the weather turned against them.

      The lull in the fighting between Sri Lankan security forces and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was broken in April when government troops went on the offensive in the northwest of the island. They were able to regain control of some 1,400 sq km (550 sq mi) but were badly mauled by the LTTE in September in the same region. The next month government troops, supported by heavy artillery and attack helicopters, won a major battle near Ampakamam but were still unable to open the main highway to the Jaffna Peninsula. In November the rebels had their greatest string of victories in years, seizing 10 government bases in the Wanni region and advancing toward the city of Vavuniya.

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

      Military relations between the U.S. and China were strained by American accusations that a physicist at the Los Alamos, N.M., nuclear laboratory provided China with the details of the W88 warhead, which arms the U.S. Trident D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missile. In August the Chinese successfully launched their Dong Feng (DF)-31 intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time. The solid-fuel missile had a range of 8,000 km (about 5,000 mi) and could be used to deliver multiple warheads, similar to the W88. In October the Chinese unveiled their new generation fighter-bomber, the FBC-1 Flying Leopard.

      The South Korean navy sank a North Korean torpedo boat and seriously damaged at least four others in June, ending a weeklong confrontation between naval and fishing vessels from the two nations in disputed waters in the Yellow Sea. Intelligence reports indicating that North Korea was preparing to test a long-range ballistic missile triggered warnings from the U.S., South Korea, and Japan. The North Koreans offered to talk about the issue and in September tentatively agreed to forego the tests in exchange for a promise of economic assistance from the U.S. and Japan.

      Concern about North Korea prompted Japan to participate for the first time in naval maneuvers with South Korea and to join with the U.S. in joint research on a regional naval-based missile defense system. In March Japanese warships fired warning shots in an attempt to stop two suspicious vessels, suspected to be North Korean, that were operating in Japanese waters. A parliamentary vice-minister for defense was forced to resign in October after he suggested that Japan should consider acquiring nuclear weapons.

      With the Indonesian armed forces unable or unwilling to curb the rampaging armed militias in East Timor following that province's vote for independence, a UN-sponsored peacekeeping force was landed in September to restore order. Led by Australia, the 7,000-strong International Forces in East Timor (INTERFET) included contingents from 15 other countries. Later in the year INTERFET was replaced by a larger UN military force. The last Indonesian soldiers withdrew from East Timor in November, ending a 24-year occupation of the former Portuguese colony.

Caribbean and Latin America.

      By providing more assistance to the Colombian military's antinarcotics efforts, the U.S. was drawn further into that country's long civil war, as most of Colombia's cocaine was produced in areas controlled by the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). In May Defense Minister Rodrigo Lloreda resigned to protest Pres. Andrés Pastrana Arango's decision to give FARC control over a 40,000-sq km (16,000-sq mi) sanctuary. The government and FARC began direct peace negotiations in October, but FARC refused to agree to a cease-fire before there was “substantial progress” in the talks.

Africa South of the Sahara.

      Forces from several other African nations remained involved in the civil war in Congo (Kinshasa). The conflict became even more complicated in August when troops from Rwanda and Uganda that had been supporting the rebel forces turned their arms on each other. A cease-fire accord mediated by Zambian Pres. Frederick Chiluba was signed in July by all the nations intervening in the conflict, but it was another six weeks before the two main rebel groups signed the pact. Rebel attacks in the south and northwest in October threatened the fragile truce. In the neighbouring Republic of the Congo, rebel militias known as Ninjas continued to harass government forces around the capital, Brazzaville, and along the strategic rail line running from the capital to the coast.

      The Tutsi-dominated army in Burundi continued to struggle against the country's numerous Hutu rebel groups. In June the rebels stepped up their attacks around the capital, Bujumbura, which prompted the army to relocate some 260,000 villagers into camps in a controversial effort to isolate the rebels. To the south the civil war in Angola flared up again early in the year, with the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA) rebels putting government troops on the defensive. In October the government launched an offensive against the UNITA positions in the central plateau. Using newly acquired Su-27 jets and fuel-air explosives, it overran the UNITA strongholds of Bailondo and Andulo.

      In Sierra Leone rebels of the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) invaded the capital, Freetown, in January. After two weeks of bitter fighting, they were chased out by the Nigerian-led West African peacekeeping force ECOMOG. In July Pres. Ahmed Tejan Kabbah and RUF leader Foday Sankoh signed a peace agreement that ended the eight-year civil war. The UN Security Council in October authorized a 6,000-strong peacekeeping force for Sierra Leone, to work with but not replace the ECOMOG force.

      In September leaders of Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea set up a joint security committee in an effort to reduce military tension in the area where their borders meet. ECOMOG troops landed in Guinea-Bissau's capital, Bissau, early in the year to supervise a cease-fire agreement between government troops and rebels loyal to ousted military chief Gen. Ansumane Mane. The truce did not hold, and the peacekeepers were withdrawn in June after Mane overthrew Pres. João Bernardo Vieira. Following a coup in Côte d'Ivoire on December 24, a junta led by Gen. Robert Guei took power from Pres. Henri Konan Bédié.

      Despite a UN Security Council demand for an immediate cease-fire, Ethiopia and Eritrea renewed their two-front border war in February, with Ethiopia recapturing the disputed town of Yirga/Badme. In May Ethiopia widened the conflict by bombing the Eritrean port of Massawa. After Ethiopia rejected the details of a peace plan brokered by the Organization of African Unity, fighting broke out again in September. The struggle between Ethiopia and Eritrea spread to Somalia, where the two sides backed rival warlords. In June the Ethiopian army laid siege to the town of Baidoa in central Somalia, defeating forces of the Eritrean-backed Oromo Liberation Front. The Sudan charged that Eritrea was also providing a sanctuary for units of the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army.

Douglas L. Clarke

▪ 1999

Introduction

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      Among the major developments of 1998, the roster of acknowledged nuclear weapons nations jumped from five to seven in May when first India and then Pakistan conducted a series of nuclear weapons tests. UN inspectors continued to believe that Iraq had failed to provide all the details of its program to develop weapons of mass destruction. By ending cooperation with the inspectors in October, Iraq faced the prospect of punitive military strikes, and in December the U.S. and Britain launched a four-day air attack on the country.Many analysts suspected that North Korea had not given up its nuclear ambitions. Although the NATO-led force in Bosnia and Herzegovina kept the once-warring factions apart in that country, the war in the Balkans finally spread to the Serbian province of Kosovo. There Serbian military and police forces brutally suppressed efforts of the ethnic Albanian majority to gain greater autonomy within Serbia. NATO threats to use force against Yugoslavia angered Russia and further weakened the limited military cooperation between Russia and the alliance. In other parts of the world, few of the ongoing conflicts were settled, and new ones such as those between Turkey and Syria and between Iran and Afghanistan threatened to erupt. Africa, where the civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo threatened to expand into a regional conflict, remained a major victim of international and domestic military violence. A sad statistic of the continuing worldwide violence was a UN report that estimated that as many as 300,000 children under the age of 18 were serving as combatants in either government armed forces or armed opposition groups. The UN set 18 as the minimum age for troops serving in its peacekeeping efforts and recommended that members provide only soldiers over 21.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      The Indian and Pakistani nuclear tests dismayed the supporters of nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament, but there were also some positive developments in regard to this issue. Brazil, which had a covert nuclear weapons program in the 1980s, signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, which left Israel, Cuba, India, and Pakistan as the only nations that had not signed. The U.K. and France became the first nuclear powers to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. For this treaty to enter into force, it had to be ratified by 44 nuclear or potential nuclear states. Although three of those nations, North Korea, India, and Pakistan, had not signed the treaty, the leaders of the latter two indicated that they might sign if the international economic sanctions imposed on them after their tests were lifted. Russia continued to balk at ratifying the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II (START-II) treaty, as many legislators charged that the agreement to cut the Russian and U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal to no more than 3,500 warheads each was biased in favour of the U.S.

      By late in the year 133 nations had signed the 1997 Ottawa Convention banning the use, stockpiling, production, and transfer of antipersonnel land mines, and 59 had ratified it; as a result the convention would enter into force on March 1, 1999. Some countries, including Germany and the U.K., had already unilaterally banned land-mine use or had eliminated their stockpiles. The U.S. continued to be a holdout, maintaining that antipersonnel mines were needed to defend the demarcation line between North and South Korea. In May the U.S. indicated that it would sign the Ottawa Convention in 2006 once suitable alternatives to the mines had been developed.

      At the year's end 169 nations had signed or acceded to the Chemical Weapons Convention, which prohibited the development, production, possession, or use of chemical weapons (CW) and mandated the destruction of all CW stockpiles by 2008. The U.S. was in technical noncompliance for much of the year until Congress in October enacted the necessary implementing domestic legislation. Russia, which possessed 40,000 metric tons of CW agents and had the largest declared stockpile, indicated that it would not be able to meet the destruction deadline because of financial problems.

United States.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      Last-minute congressional legislation included in the October omnibus appropriations bill provided $9.2 billion in emergency funding for the Defense Department. This increased fiscal 1999 defense appropriations to $278.8 billion, the first real rise in 14 years. The nation's top military leaders had warned that the quick tempo of operations connected with the many U.S. military commitments worldwide was eroding military readiness. Among other worrisome developments, several of the services were unable to meet their reenlistment goals. The air force had 700 fewer pilots than it needed, a shortfall that was projected to grow to 2,000 by 2002. The navy fell 12% short of its fiscal 1998 recruiting goal, a deficit of nearly 7,000 recruits. The Joint Chiefs of Staff had objected that readiness funding in the fiscal 1999 budget was $27 billion too low. The supplemental bill provided an extra $1.1 billion for that category.

      Once again Congress gave the Pentagon some weapons it had not requested and balked at endorsing two future rounds of base closings that Secretary of Defense William Cohen had urged as necessary to provide savings to help meet procurement and readiness needs. The administration's request for money to continue work on the army's Theater High Altitude Area Defense system was cut nearly in half, as the program continued to have problems. In May the missile failed for the fifth time to intercept a simulated target. Later in the year the army announced that the next test had been postponed until early in 1999. In September the Senate fell one vote short of passing a bill that would have required the administration to deploy a national missile defense system "as soon as technologically feasible." The supplemental bill added $1 billion to the $3.5 billion allocated for ballistic missile defense in the regular appropriations bill. Perhaps signaling the end of the "megamergers" in the defense industry, Lockheed Martin Corp. in July called off its proposed $8.3 billion acquisition of Northrop Grumman Corp. in the face of government opposition.

      The relative ease with which terrorists or foreign enemies might obtain biological weapons and the threat of nuclear proliferation prompted Pres. Bill Clinton to strengthen the nation's defense against such unconventional threats. U.S. military personnel deployed to the Persian Gulf region were vaccinated against anthrax beginning in March, and in May the program was expanded to cover the total force. National Guard units in 10 states with high urban densities were given special training to assist state and local authorities following a biological, chemical, or nuclear attack. In retaliation for the terrorist bombing attacks on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, navy warships on August 20 launched cruise missile attacks against two facilities thought to be connected with the organization responsible for the embassy bombings: a terrorist training camp in Afghanistan and a chemical factory in Khartoum, Sudan, that was believed to be producing precursors for nerve gas. During the buildup of U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf in November, the air force deployed one of its new air expeditionary forces, an integrated package of bomber, fighter, and support aircraft.

      The new Defense Threat Reduction Agency became operational on October 1. It combined the several defense agencies and offices that had been concerned with arms control and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, such as the On-Site Inspection Agency and the Defense Special Weapons Agency. October's omnibus spending bill included a provision to end the independent status of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency and to incorporate it within the State Department.

      The remains of the serviceman from the Vietnam War buried in the Tomb of the Unknowns at Arlington (Va.) National Cemetery were disinterred and identified as those of air force First Lieut. Michael Blassie. Fifty-three years after the event, retired marine corps major general James L. Day was awarded the Medal of Honor for bravery in action when serving as a corporal during the World War II invasion of Okinawa. A former navy hospital corpsman, Robert R. Ingram, was given the same award for his heroic actions in Vietnam in 1966.

      Other personnel-related developments were not as positive. Sexual misconduct by instructors and fellow recruits against female recruits during basic training and allegations of adultery continued to be problems. Despite calls for the complete separation of men and women in all the services during basic training, Defense Secretary Cohen in June approved plans that would provide for separate sleeping facilities for men and women but would continue to integrate the sexes in army, navy, and air force basic training units. The marine corps was allowed to retain its established policy of separating the sexes during basic training. In July Cohen issued guidance to standardize the "good order and discipline" policies of the services and to clarify the guidance regarding the offense of adultery.

      In February a marine corps EA-6B Prowler electronic countermeasures aircraft struck a gondola cable while on a low-level training mission in the Italian Alps, causing the deaths of the 20 skiers who were riding in the gondola. The pilot and navigator of the jet faced a court-martial. In regard to gay rights, advocates charged that the government's "don't ask, don't tell" policy for homosexuals in the military was discriminatory; a federal appeals court in September, however, upheld the policy.

NATO.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      The process of bringing the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland into the alliance continued smoothly, and by the end of the year all of NATO's 16 members except The Netherlands had ratified the accession protocols. Plans continued to induct formally the three new members at a summit meeting in Washington, D.C., in April 1999. Twenty-nine nations, including Russia and Ukraine, participated in the NATO-led Stabilization Force (SFOR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In June the UN Security Council extended the mandate of SFOR until June 21, 1999, and NATO organized a slightly smaller follow-up force in which U.S. participation dropped from 8,500 to 6,900.

      Disagreements over NATO policy in the Balkans led to a chilling of the alliance's relations with Russia. In June Russia recalled its military representative at NATO headquarters in Brussels and refused to allow NATO to establish a military mission in Moscow, as was called for in the 1997 Founding Act regulating NATO's special relationship with Russia. In October the Russians briefly recalled both their ambassador and military representative from Brussels and warned that Russia would abrogate the Founding Act and sever all relations with NATO should the latter carry out its threat to conduct air strikes against Yugoslavia.

      The perennial tension between NATO members Greece and Turkey continued, exacerbated by the Russian commitment to provide sophisticated air defense missile systems to the Greek government on Cyprus and the brief deployment of Turkish F-16 jets to a new military air base on the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. In May representatives from Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.K. signed production contracts for the first batch of 148 Eurofighters, with the first deliveries expected in 2002. The export version of the plane was dubbed "Typhoon." Canada bought four surplus Upholder-class diesel submarines from the U.K. to replace its aging submarine fleet.

United Kingdom.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      In July Defence Secretary George Robertson announced the conclusions of the Strategic Defence Review. It placed emphasis on enhancing Britain's joint operations capabilities, including the creation of Joint Rapid Reaction Forces. Service modernization was to include two new large aircraft carriers for the Royal Navy, increasing the number of deployable army brigades from five to six, and modernizing the Royal Air Force's (RAF's) air transport fleet. To help pay for those programs, the ministry planned to sell off assets worth more than £2.2 billion.

      During the year the Trident submarine-launched ballistic missile became Britain's sole nuclear weapons system; all RAF WE177 free-fall nuclear bombs were removed from service and dismantled. Only one missile submarine would be on patrol at any time, carrying a reduced load of 48 warheads. In a break with centuries of naval tradition, two women formally took command of Royal Navy warships in March.

France.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      Defense Minister Alain Richard presented a F 243.5 billion (U.S. $43.8 billion) 1999 budget proposal in keeping with the four-year defense spending plan he had unveiled in April. That plan was designed to cut F 20 billion ($3.5 billion) from the defense budget by 2002. To help meet this goal, France abandoned seven military programs, including the Horus radar satellite joint effort with Germany. Procurement under the 1999 budget plan was set at F 86 billion ($15.5 billion), which represented the first time since 1990 that this category had risen. It would provide 33 new Leclerc tanks for the army plus orders for 44 more as well as the start of production of the Franco-Germany Tiger helicopter.

      Placing into service the nuclear aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle topped the navy's priority list. The service also was to receive the first naval version of the Rafale fighter aircraft and the second E-2C Hawkeye maritime surveillance aircraft. The first production-series Rafale fighter was also to be delivered to the air force in 1999. In March Gen. Jean-Pierre Kelche was appointed chief of staff of the armed forces.

Germany.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      German officials continued in 1998 to show that they had overcome their previous reluctance to involve German forces in combat outside the nation's borders. In October the federal parliament approved a government offer to provide 14 jet planes and 500 troops to participate in any NATO campaign against Yugoslavia.

      Rudolf Scharping, former leader of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) in the parliament, was named defense minister in the newly elected SPD government. A defense structures commission was appointed to review the tasks, structure, and equipment of the nation's armed forces.

The Rest of Europe.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      In February Yugoslav police began a crackdown on what they termed "terrorist" forces among the ethnic Albanian majority in the Serbian province of Kosovo. The effort escalated to include military units, and fighting occasionally spilled across the Albanian border. In April the UN Security Council imposed an arms embargo on Yugoslavia, and in September it demanded a cease-fire in Kosovo and the withdrawal from the province of Yugoslav security forces. NATO prepared for a bombing campaign against Yugoslavia but held off when Yugoslav Pres. Slobodan Milosevic in October agreed to remove his security forces from Kosovo and to allow a 2,000-strong Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe observer force into the province to verify the pullout. In December, however, the cease-fire was broken when security forces attacked an ethnic Albanian stronghold.

      The establishment of regional joint security or peacekeeping forces grew in popularity throughout Europe. These ranged in size from a planned Danish-German-Polish 50,000-strong mechanized corps to be headquartered in Szczecin, Pol., when Poland joined NATO to the small "Baltron" joint naval force composed of two minesweepers each from Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. In September defense ministers from Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, Italy, Macedonia, Romania, and Turkey signed an agreement to form a joint Balkan peacekeeping force of 4,000 troops. Hungary and Romania agreed to form a joint battalion, and a joint Polish-Lithuanian battalion was scheduled to become operational in January 1999.

Turkey.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      Continuing its long battle against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), the Turkish military made several incursions into northern Iraq during the year to attack suspected PKK bases. In October this struggle threatened to spill over into Syria. Turkish officials charged that Syria was harbouring PKK rebels, and Gen. Huseyin Kivrikoglu, who had been named chief of the general staff in August, said that Turkey was in "an undeclared war" with Syria.

      In regard to domestic matters, Kivrikoglu pledged to continue the military's determined fight against Islamic fundamentalism. When the Supreme Military Council met in August, it decided to purge 25 officers suspected of links to Islamic extremist groups.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      Buffeted by years of financial neglect, government indifference, and inept leadership, the Russian armed forces continued to deteriorate. In September Defense Minister Marshal Igor Sergeyev stated that only the strategic rocket troops and the elite airborne forces were able to carry out their military tasks effectively. Earlier in the year he had admitted that it would be impossible to meet Pres. Boris Yeltsin's goal of reforming the armed forces by the year 2000, turning the military into an all-volunteer force. One of the few reform measures carried out in 1998 was the merger of the air force and air defense troops.

      In August Yeltsin approved a UN Security Council defense policy document that established the concepts of military development until the year 2005. Although not made public, the plan was said to recognize that Russia would not be threatened by an all-out war during that period but would face small-scale conflicts along its borders and internal instability. The document also called for the administrative reorganization of the military districts and promoted the role of the armed forces proper at the expense of the military forces, such as the border and interior troops, that were subordinate to other ministries and departments. These were to be reduced in size. Security Council Secretary Andrey Kokoshin was clearly instrumental in preparing this policy document and had also been the driving force behind military reform when he served as first deputy defense minister. He was, however, abruptly dismissed on September 10.

      Pay for the personnel in the military continued to be months in arrears despite repeated promises from the government to remedy this situation. Many officers were forced to take illegal second jobs or borrow money from their parents in order to feed their families. The Ministry of Defense even suggested that the troops and their families be sent out into the forests and fields to forage for food. In these humiliating conditions the military suicide rate remained high.

      With virtually no domestic contracts, Russia's defense industry continued to rely on foreign sales to survive. China and India continued to be the best customers, as the financial crisis in Asia forced the cancellation of a lucrative deal to sell jet fighters and combat helicopters to Indonesia. Following U.S. and Israeli charges that the Russians were supplying sensitive ballistic missile technology to Iran, a government commission in July began investigations of nine organizations suspected of violating the laws on the export of dual-use technology.

      Russia lost one more link in the former Soviet chain of ballistic missile early-warning sites when Latvia refused to extend the lease on the radar at Skrunda, demanding instead that it be dismantled. Efforts to create a "common defense sphere" covering the territory of the former Soviet Union proceeded fitfully. The closest military ties were those between Russia and Belarus. Both parliaments ratified a loose military alliance, and there was talk of forming some joint forces. All the CIS members except Azerbaijan and Moldova participated to one degree or another in a united air-defense system. Russia continued to maintain peacekeeping troops in the Abkhazian region of Georgia, in Moldova, and in Tajikistan. In the latter, despite an agreement between the government and the opposition leadership to form a combined government of national unity, splinter opposition forces engaged government troops in heavy combat throughout the year. In early November a rebel group led by a former colonel in the Tajik army, Mahmud Khudoiberdiyev, invaded northwestern Tajikstan from bases in Uzbekistan. After capturing the country's second largest city, Khujand, the rebels were overwhelmed by government forces.

      Concerned about the advances of the fundamentalist Islamic forces in neighbouring Afghanistan, Russia indicated that it might maintain a strong military presence in Tajikistan even after the civil war had ended. In Georgia about 100 soldiers mutinied in October and joined supporters of a deceased president, Zviad Gamsakhurdia. The insurgents marched on the city of Kutaisi with a force that included tanks and armoured personnel carriers. After a brief clash they returned to their barracks.

Middle East and North Africa.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein repeatedly placed restrictions on the UN weapons-inspections teams in Iraq, provoking the U.S. and its allies to threaten retaliatory air attacks. In February Iraq refused to allow the teams to enter any of the many presidential palaces. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan negotiated a compromise in which eight of the palaces could be inspected, provided UN diplomats accompanied the inspectors. At another location UN inspectors found traces of VX nerve gas on missile warheads despite assurances by the Iraqis that they had never loaded any weapons with chemical agents. The inspectors also suspected that Iraq was using its legal short-range missile program to conceal the continued development of banned long-range missiles. In August Iraq said it would no longer allow surprise inspections at new sites, and in October Hussein said that all inspections had to stop. When Iraq continued to deny the inspectors access to some facilities, the U.S. and U.K. in December staged an air attack on selected targets in the country. At the year's end Iraq fired missiles at U.S. and British aircraft patrolling the "no-fly zones" in northern and southern Iraq; the U.S. and British retaliated by firing on an Iraqi air-defense battery.

      In July Iran successfully tested the new Shehab-3 ballistic missile. With an estimated range of some 1,300 km (800 mi), it was based on a missile that Iran had purchased from North Korea. In Israel, Iranian-born Gen. Shaul Mofaz was named chief of staff in May. In an effort brokered by the U.S. to rejuvenate the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, the two sides signed another interim peace agreement in October. At the same time, the U.S. pledged to help protect Israel against the threat of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction.

      In Algeria the government continued to be unable to neutralize the extremist Islamic rebels, who had been conducting a terrorist campaign since 1992. In April the rebels killed 80 soldiers and seized large quantities of weapons in a raid on a military post south of Algiers.

South and Central Asia.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      The arms race between India and Pakistan escalated early in 1998 when Pakistan tested its new Ghauri medium-range ballistic missile. The new Hindu nationalist coalition government in India responded by conducting a series of nuclear tests, and Pakistan swiftly countered in kind. President Clinton immediately imposed economic sanctions on both countries.

      The new Indian government's budget called for defense spending to be raised by 14%. At the end of July and in early August, India and Pakistan exchanged artillery fire across their border in disputed Kashmir. Tensions eased somewhat when the two parties met in October for peace talks, the first in more than a year. Although little progress was made, they pledged to meet again early in 1999.

      The Taliban Islamic militia seemed during the year to be on the verge of occupying all of Afghanistan, but the success of this fundamentalist movement alarmed many of Afghanistan's neighbours, and so they supported an alliance that continued to defy the Taliban in the northeastern part of the country. Russia, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan provided aid to the resistance groups, led by Ahmad Shah Masoud and Gen. !Abd ar-Rashid Dostam. Iran also helped Masoud as well as the Shi!ite Hezbb-i Wahdat faction. Following the murder of at least nine Iranians in Afghanistan in August, Iran was reported to have moved as many as 200,000 troops to the Afghan border. There was a brief border clash in early October.

      In Sri Lanka the 15-year-old civil war between the government and the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) was no closer to resolution. In January the LTTE staged a daring suicide bombing of Sri Lanka's holiest Buddhist shrine. The two sides agreed to a brief cease-fire, which lasted only until April 19, when the LTTE blew up two government naval vessels. The government remained unable to gain complete control of the strategic Jaffna-Vavuniya Highway, and in September LTTE forces claimed to have recaptured Kilinochchi along that route. That same month the government rejected an LTTE offer to restart peace talks, provided there was a third-party mediator. (See Sidebar (Liberation Tigers ).)

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      North Korea's military activities continued to worry some of its neighbours. In June a North Korean miniature submarine thought to be on a mission to infiltrate agents into South Korea was caught in a fishing net just south of the border. The nine crewmen were found shot to death, and it was thought that four had killed the other five and then committed suicide. Three senior South Korean military commanders were fired several weeks later when evidence was found of another, successful, infiltration effort. In August North Korea attempted to place a small satellite in orbit, using a three-stage launch vehicle that overflew Japan. The attempt was first identified as a missile test and prompted Japan to postpone signing an agreement on sharing the cost of providing nuclear reactors to North Korea. The North Korean government refused a U.S. demand to inspect an underground facility suspected to be a nuclear weapons production plant under construction but later said that if the U.S. paid it hundreds of millions of dollars it would allow the inspection to proceed.The four-power peace talks to end the Korean War officially broke down in March. When they resumed in October, North Korea once again demanded that the agenda focus on a U.S. troop withdrawal from South Korea.

      During President Clinton's visit to China in June and July, he and Chinese Pres. Jiang Zemin announced that the two countries would no longer target each other with strategic nuclear missiles. The Chinese also agreed that they would not provide India or Pakistan with nuclear weapons or ballistic missile technology. President Jiang in July ordered the military to give up its huge commercial business empire.

      The Asian financial crisis forced many countries in the region to abandon or postpone military modernization plans. In Indonesia the military did not block the ouster of President Suharto (see BIOGRAPHIES (Suharto )) but was accused of being ineffective in controlling the accompanying civil turmoil. In an effort to ease tensions in Irian Jaya, the former Dutch colony where a separatist movement had been fighting for independence from Indonesia, the government withdrew more than 300 soldiers in August. Troops from Myanmar (Burma) were involved in skirmishes along that country's borders with both Thailand and Bangladesh. Although the Cambodian government believed that its troops had wiped out the last pockets of Khmer Rouge resistance forces early in the year, Khmer Rouge guerrillas resumed their attacks on government positions in July. Fourteen senior Vietnamese military officers, including the chief of staff, were killed in a military plane crash in Laos in May.

Caribbean and Latin America.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      After 25 years in the post, Gen. Augusto Pinochet Ugarte retired as head of the Chilean army in March and was then sworn in as a senator for life in the Chilean legislature in line with a controversial constitutional provision enacted in 1980 while he headed the military junta ruling Chile. In October, however, while in London for medical treatment, Pinochet was arrested at the request of a Spanish magistrate. The Spanish judge wanted him extradited so that he could be tried for human rights violations against Spanish citizens during his military regime.

      In October Peru and Ecuador settled a border dispute that had brought them to blows in 1941, 1981, and 1995. The Colombian government appeared to be losing ground in its struggle against the country's leftist guerrillas. Disturbed by a number of humiliating military setbacks, newly elected Pres. Andrés Pastrana replaced almost all the country's top military leaders in August.

Africa South of the Sahara.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World (For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World ).)

      The Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) was again the scene of bitter fighting as troops from Angola, Chad, Namibia, and Zimbabwe aided the government of Pres. Laurent Kabila against disgruntled members of Kabila's army; the latter were supported by Uganda and Rwanda. Ethnic animosities again played a key role in the conflict. Kabila turned against the minority Tutsi soldiers who had helped bring him to power and embraced Hutu support, including that of the fugitive Rwandan Hutu soldiers who had been guilty of genocide against the Tutsi within their own country. In neighbouring Burundi, Hutu rebels clashed with the Tutsi-dominated army early in the year. The 17 parties involved in Burundi's long civil war began peace talks in Arusha, Tanz., in June. Two subsequent sessions were held, with a fourth planned for January 1999.

      Nigerian military leader Gen. Sani Abacha died suddenly in June of a heart attack (see OBITUARIES (Abacha, Sani )). The military installed Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar, the former defense chief of staff, as the country's new leader. (See BIOGRAPHIES (Abubakar, Abdulsalam ).) The Nigerian-led West African peacekeeping force (ECOMOG) finally ended the civil war in Liberia, although conflict briefly erupted in Monrovia in September when a former faction leader sought refuge in the American embassy. ECOMOG was also successful in ousting the military junta in Sierra Leone and restoring Pres. Ahmad Tejan Kabbah to power. Rebel forces, however, continued to remain active in the north and east of the country. In October a military court in Sierra Leone found 34 persons, including two former chiefs of staff, guilty of treason for collaborating with the junta; 24 were executed. Also in West Africa, troops loyal to the head of Guinea-Bissau's military forces, Gen. Ansumane Mane, mutinied in June when Ansumane was dismissed. Senegal and Guinea provided troops to help the forces loyal to Pres. João Bernardo Vieira. A cease-fire agreement signed in July soon broke down, and rebel troops had approached the capital by mid-October. The two sides signed a peace agreement in November.

      In February soldiers in Niger who had not been paid for four months also briefly mutinied. In October troops from Niger, Nigeria, and Chad launched a joint operation to clean out Chadian rebels operating in the region where the three countries had common borders.

      In May Ethiopia and Eritrea clashed over disputed territory along their joint border. The fighting escalated during the next month to include air strikes by both sides. As the year ended, Eritrean forces continued to occupy territory claimed by Ethiopia. The long civil war in southern Sudan continued, with heavy fighting driving thousands from their homes in an area ravaged by famine. The rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) accepted a government cease-fire offer in August, but the truce was soon broken.

      South Africa in April for the first time appointed a black general, Lieut. Gen. Siphiwe Nyanda, to head its armed forces. South Africa and Botswana encountered unexpected opposition in September when they sent troops to quell a military mutiny in Lesotho, an independent enclave surrounded by South Africa. This intervention surprised many, as South African Pres. Nelson Mandela had been a strong advocate of mediation in settling disputes between African nations.

New Technology.

      The U.S. Global Hawk unmanned reconnaissance aircraft made its first flight on February 28. With a 35.3-m (116-ft) wingspan, it was designed to operate with a range of 13,500 nautical miles at altitudes up to 19,800 m (65,000 ft) and with an endurance of 40 hours. The aircraft could carry radar, electro-optical, and infrared sensors and was able to transmit these data to ground stations via satellite link. At the other end of the size spectrum, Lockheed Martin unveiled the 12-cm (5-in)-wingspan MicroStar air reconnaissance vehicle. Equipped with a day/night camera and a transmitter, the 85-g (3-oz) craft was designed to stay aloft for 20 minutes at an altitude of 60 m (200 ft), transmitting real-time intelligence to a laptop computer that would serve as a ground station.

DOUGLAS L. CLARKE

▪ 1998

Introduction

      In a dramatic illustration of just how much security relationships had changed in Europe over a decade, NATO in July 1997 invited three of its former Warsaw Pact adversaries in Eastern Europe to join the alliance. The NATO-led coalition force in Bosnia and Herzegovina—which included contingents from 20 non-NATO nations—was successful in maintaining a troubled peace in that war-weary country. Peace, however, was hardly a universal condition in 1997. As the year ended, there were some 30 conflicts of varying size and intensity ongoing throughout the world. In the Middle East, Iraq's Pres. Saddam Hussein once again balked at cooperating with UN weapons inspectors and seemed determined to provoke a military confrontation with the United States. Central Africa was a particularly volatile region, with national borders of little use in containing the violence. Civil war continued to ravage Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The armed forces of Albania and Zaire disintegrated when put to the test, and the death of a princess and the awarding of a prestigious international prize added momentum to a unique international movement to ban antipersonnel land mines.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      U.S. and Russian nuclear disarmament was restrained by the continued reluctance of the Russian State Duma (the legislature's lower house) to ratify the 1993 Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II (START-II) treaty. At their March summit meeting in Helsinki, Fin., U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton and Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin agreed on a framework for the follow-up START-III treaty, which would cut each country's strategic nuclear arsenal to no more than 2,500 warheads. In an effort to make the START-II treaty more palatable to the State Duma, they also agreed to extend the treaty's reduction period by five years. A protocol incorporating this provision was signed by the two countries in September, along with several documents relating to the 1972 antiballistic missile (ABM) treaty. These named Belarus, Russia, Kazakstan, and Ukraine as successors to the Soviet Union for the purposes of the treaty and defined the parameters of the shorter-range missile defense systems that would not be subject to the treaty.

      With the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD) dragging its heels on negotiating a ban on antipersonnel land mines, the impetus in this field shifted to the "Ottawa Process"—named after the site of an October 1996 conference sponsored by Canada with the express aim of achieving a global ban at the earliest possible date. In addition to nations, the process included a number of nongovernmental organizations. The most notable of these was the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), a coalition of more than 1,000 organizations in over 60 countries. A treaty text was adopted at a follow-up conference in Oslo in September. Diana, princess of Wales—who had been the world's most visible advocate of a land mine ban and was to have addressed the Oslo conference—was killed in an automobile accident on August 31. (See OBITUARIES. (Diana, princess of Wales )) The U.S. had preferred the CD as the forum for regulating land mines and rather reluctantly joined the Oslo conference. American efforts to amend the draft treaty to allow several exceptions—such as the continued use of antipersonnel mines in Korea—failed, and President Clinton announced that the U.S. would not sign the treaty. He did, however, launch an initiative to raise $1 billion each year for mine-clearing operations with the goal of eradicating by 2010 all land mines threatening civilian populations. A number of countries with large stockpiles of land mines—such as Russia and China—did not attend the Oslo meeting. When the ICBL and its American coordinator, Jody Williams, were jointly awarded the 1997 Nobel Peace Prize in October, President Yeltsin announced that Russia would support the treaty. (See RIZES (Nobel Prizes ).) It was opened for signature in Ottawa on December 3 and within a few days was signed by the representatives of 123 countries. Despite Yeltsin's earlier statements, Russia did not immediately sign. Other significant absentees included China and the United States.

      The Chemical Weapons Convention entered into force in April, and José Mauricio Bustani of Brazil was elected the first director-general of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the treaty's implementing body. The U.S. ratified the convention in April, and Russia followed suit in November. India, China, and South Korea were among the signatories that for the first time acknowledged having chemical-weapons programs.

United States.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Once again, Congress appropriated more money for defense than the Clinton administration had requested, passing a $247.7 billion Department of Defense budget for fiscal 1998. President Clinton exercised restraint in using his new line item veto authority, trimming just 13 projects worth $144 million from the bill. These included the money to operate the SR-71 "Blackbird" spy planes—a program that Congress had kept alive since the air force had tried in 1989 to retire the supersonic reconnaissance aircraft. Clinton signed the authorization bill despite reservations about provisions that dealt with the closing of several air force maintenance depots.

      In May the Pentagon completed its Quadrennial Defense Review, which concluded that the U.S. must retain the ability to win two regional wars at the same time. The report recommended a modest reduction in total military personnel strength while maintaining 100,000 troops in both Europe and Asia and called for another round of military base closings. In November Secretary of Defense William Cohen announced a Defense Reform Initiative, which aimed to streamline the organization and operation of his department and thereby generate savings to help fund the development and procurement of a new generation of information-based weapons systems. Highlights of the plan included the reduction over 18 months of one-third of the personnel in the Office of the Secretary of Defense and the creation of a Threat Reduction & Treaty Compliance Agency by consolidation of the On-Site-Inspection Agency, the Defense Special Weapons Agency, and the Defense Technology Security Administration.

      The U.S.'s armed forces suffered more from troubles of their own making during the year than from any foreign foe. Celebrations of the air force's 50th anniversary were clouded by the unprecedented early retirement of the service's chief of staff and several high-visibility cases of alleged sexual misconduct. Gen. Ronald Fogleman resigned in protest over plans to discipline the general in charge of an air force facility in Saudi Arabia struck by a terrorist bomb in June 1996. An earlier air force investigation had cleared the officer of any responsibility for the incident. The air force's first female B-52 pilot, charged with adultery and fraternization, accepted a general discharge rather than face a court-martial, and an air force general who was the leading candidate to replace Gen. John Shalikashvili as chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff took his name out of contention after allegations that he had had an adulterous affair more than a decade earlier were made. As a result, Gen. Henry Shelton in October became the third successive army incumbent in the nation's top military post, which had traditionally been rotated among the three services.

      The sergeant major of the army—the service's top enlisted man—was first suspended from his duties and then replaced to face a court-martial after he was charged with sexual harassment. In a report released in September, a senior army review panel concluded that sexual harassment and discrimination existed throughout the service. A Defense Department panel in December recommended reducing the integration of men and women in the armed services.

      The high operational requirements resulting from the U.S's many overseas commitments took a toll on pilot retention, especially those flying high-performance fighter aircraft. More than 700 experienced pilots left the air force during the year. The Pentagon in July suspended indefinitely military participation in the antidrug patrols along the border with Mexico after a marine shot and killed an 18-year-old Texan. A spate of military aircraft accidents in September prompted the secretary of defense to order all the services to implement a 24-hour "safety stand-down." During the year the air force rolled out its first F-22 "Raptor" air superiority fighter, and the B-2 stealth bomber was declared to be ready for operational use.

NATO.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Despite strong Russian objections, leaders of the 16 NATO countries in July offered membership to the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland. The accession process was expected to take two years. The heads of state also signed a Founding Act that regulated NATO's special relationship with Russia and a Charter with a similar purpose with Ukraine. To strengthen its links with other nonmembers, NATO bolstered its Partnership for Peace program and established the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council. The 36,000-strong NATO-led Stabilization Force (SFOR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina maintained a fragile peace between the three ethnic communities, but it became clear that a sizable NATO presence would be required in that country after the SFOR's mandate ended in mid-1998. In December NATO foreign ministers tasked their military authorities to provide early in 1998 options for a follow-on force.

      Russian participation in the SFOR remained an example of the close cooperation that could be achieved at the working level. The Russian-NATO Joint Permanent Council established by the Founding Act held several meetings, at both the ministerial and ambassadorial levels. In October Russia appointed a military representative to NATO headquarters in Brussels.

      The alliance continued to refine the plans to modernize its command structure. France decided to postpone its return to NATO's integrated military structure after the U.S. refused to give up command of the alliance's Southern Command, but the French indicated they would not block the military reorganization. In March U.S. Army Gen. Wesley Clark was named to replace Gen. George Joulwan as the supreme Allied commander, Europe.

      The misdeeds of some NATO soldiers during the 1993 UN intervention in Somalia continued to have repercussions. In Canada a royal commission found that Canadian officers in Somalia and Ottawa had covered up the torture and murder of civilians by Canadian paratroops. Two Italian generals resigned after a newsmagazine alleged that Italian troops had abused and killed unarmed Somalis. The Italian government pledged to conduct a full inquiry.

United Kingdom.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      In March a contract was signed for the production of three new "Astute"-class nuclear-powered attack submarines, which were scheduled to enter service early in the next century. In May George Robertson was named secretary of state for defense in the new Labour Party government. Despite its strong antinuclear tradition, the Labour Party at its annual conference voted to retain Britain's nuclear deterrent. In October the government confirmed that it would buy seven more American Trident D5 missiles, to be delivered in 1998. They were to be fitted with British-made nuclear warheads. This would increase the British inventory of these submarine-launched ballistic missiles to 58.

France.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Alain Richard was named defense minister in the Socialist Party Cabinet that took power in June. The new government announced that it would pare down its troop levels in Africa and would no longer intervene in the domestic affairs of its former colonies there..) (France's new African Policy ) It also modified a controversial plan of the previous government to call up young people for five days to assess their suitability for the military and to lecture them on patriotism as France made the transition to an all-volunteer force over the next few years. Instead, they would be called up for a single day before their 18th birthday to learn about defense issues. The government also pledged more than F 80 billion for military procurement in 1998, down from the F 90 billion in the previous government's plans.

Germany.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      German troops involved in an operation in March to rescue foreigners from the anarchy in Albania opened fire on Albanian gunmen in what was described as the first foreign combat by the German military since the end of World War II. The public and government proudly marked the event as another step in overcoming the taboos that had grown from the reactions to Germany's militaristic past. Germans were less pleased with the behaviour of some of their troops at home. Bullying within the ranks was on the increase, and several times during the year soldiers were involved in vicious attacks on foreign workers.

Turkey.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      The Turkish military, which regarded itself as the defender of Turkey's secular tradition, made no secret of its displeasure with the Islamist government of Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan and was credited with a major role in his overthrow in June. In little more than a year, the armed forces expelled more than 200 officers charged with having extreme Islamist tendencies. Ismet Sezgin was named defense minister in the new government. He endorsed the previous government's $31 billion 10-year weapons-acquisition program. In midyear and again in September, Turkish troops conducted major incursions into northern Iraq to attack bases of the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Some 8,000 remained in Iraq to police a security buffer zone. The controversial Russian sale of its sophisticated S-300 air defense missile system to the Republic of Cyprus raised tensions between Turkey, Greece, and Russia. Turkey warned that it would not tolerate the missiles' deployment and searched several third-country ships it suspected of carrying the weapons as they passed through the Turkish Straits. Greece, Russia, and the Greek Cypriot government suggested that the missiles would not be deployed if Turkey agreed to the demilitarization of Cyprus.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      In a February decree Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin ordered a 200,000-man cut in the armed forces, reducing them to an authorized strength of 1.2 million by the end of the year. Dissatisfied with the slow pace of military reform, Yeltsin in May fired both the defense minister and the chief of the general staff. They were replaced by Gen. Igor Sergeyev, the chief of the strategic rocket forces, and Gen. Anatoly Kvashnin. This new team supported Yeltsin's major reform proposals made public in July. The downsizing of the armed forces would continue, reaching a low of 1.2 million authorized military personnel by the end of 1998. Reorganization of Russia's five major services began by combining the strategic rocket forces, the military space troops, and the strategic defense assets of the air defense troops. The air force and the rest of the air defense troops were scheduled to be merged by the end of 1998.

      As Russia's conventional military strength deteriorated, increased emphasis was placed on nuclear deterrence, including the possibility of using nuclear weapons to counter a conventional attack. Production of a new intercontinental ballistic missile began, and work started on the first of a new class of strategic missile-carrying submarines. Fulfilling a pledge President Yeltsin had made in May, Russia no longer aimed its nuclear missiles at targets in NATO countries. The bloated defense industry inherited from the Soviet Union remained in trouble, with frequent strikes. The Defense Ministry lacked the money to pay the enterprises so that they in turn could pay their workers and suppliers. In military procurement the government could afford only to fund prototypes of new conventional weapons in an effort to stay abreast of the latest military technology and to seek foreign sales to sustain the most important enterprises. Such new weapons included the S-37 experimental jet fighter developed by Sukhoi. With wings that were swept forward, the plane was touted as an equal to the American F-22. A new "Black Eagle" main battle tank was also displayed for the first time.

      Russia and Ukraine finally settled their long dispute over the division of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet. Ukraine agreed to lease base facilities in Sevastopol and several other locations on the Crimean Peninsula to Russia for 20 years. The two sides could not agree, however, on the terms for Russia to buy back some 40 strategic bombers inherited by Ukraine when the Soviet Union dissolved. These included the bulk of the supersonic Tu-160 "Blackjacks" that had been in the Soviet inventory.

      Despite the presence of a large CIS peacekeeping force in Tajikistan, fighting went on there throughout most of the year between troops loyal to the government and those that had turned against it. In August the government declared victory over the mutineers. Members of illegal armed groups were given until November 17 to turn in their weapons. Uzbekistan, fearing that the conflicts in Tajikistan and Afghanistan might spill over onto its territory, continued to build up its armed forces.

      Georgia's Pres. Eduard Shevardnadze again threatened to end the mandate of the Russian peacekeeping force in the Georgian breakaway province of Abkhazia unless the Russians protected returning ethnic Georgians, who had been expelled from the region. At a CIS summit meeting in October, the mandate was extended only until the end of the year. The U.S. bought 21 MiG-29 jet fighters from Moldova after there were reports that Iran was interested in them. Some of the planes were capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

The Rest of Europe.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      In the civil unrest that broke out in Albania in March, the armed forces proved unwilling or unable to stand up to the rebel groups. Troops deserted; most of the country's arsenals were looted of their weapons; and the defense minister fled the country. A 6,000-strong international force led by Italy moved into the country to distribute food and medicine and to help restore order. The new government fired most of the generals in the army, and several NATO countries offered to help rebuild the Albanian military as a smaller security force. Only 45,000 weapons were turned in during an amnesty period ended on September 30, and government officials estimated that some 600,000 military weapons remained in the hands of the population.

      The Muslim and Croat military forces in Bosnia and Herzegovina continued to receive shipments of military equipment—including tanks, heavy artillery, and helicopters—in a controversial program sponsored by the U.S., Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia and designed to give those forces parity with the Bosnian Serbs. In the 18 months that the June 1996 Agreement on Sub-Regional Arms Control had been in effect, the four Balkan parties—Croatia, Yugoslavia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the Bosnian Serbs—had destroyed almost 6,600 pieces of heavy military equipment.

Middle East.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      The UN Security Council refused to lift the economic sanctions it had imposed on Iraq in 1990 because of its concerns that it had not received a full accounting of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction but postponed a decision on an Anglo-American proposal to impose additional sanctions. President Hussein retaliated by briefly expelling the Americans from the UN weapons inspection teams in Iraq and threatening to shoot down American U-2 reconnaissance planes, whereupon the Security Council passed the added sanctions. In October Iranian and Iraqi warplanes violated the no-fly zone established in southern Iraq, which prompted the U.S. to speed up the deployment of an aircraft carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf. The Iranian planes had bombed anti-Iranian rebels located in Iraq. Iran's military strength and its self-sufficiency in arms production continued to grow, as the U.S. had mixed results in its efforts to prevent other countries from providing Iran with advanced weapons technology. China agreed to stop selling Iran cruise missiles, but the Russian government denied that it was supplying Iran with ballistic missile technology despite American and Israeli intelligence reports that individual Russian scientists and enterprises were involved in this activity.

      Israel and Turkey continued to cooperate in defense matters. The two countries agreed to produce jointly a long-range air-to-surface missile, a development Egypt warned could trigger a regional arms race. In Lebanon Islamic guerrillas ambushed and killed an elite Israeli naval commando team as it attempted a raid on a guerrilla headquarters near Sidon; this revived the debate within Israel on the value of military operations inside Lebanon.

South and Central Asia.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      In Afghanistan the Taliban Islamic militia saw its fortunes ebb and flow after its forces pushed northward from the capital, Kabul, in January. In February Taliban fighters seized the strategic Shibar Pass and broke into northern Afghanistan for the first time. For a brief time they held the important city of Mazar-e Sharif after one of the allies in Gen. ˋAbd ar-Rashid Dostam's northern coalition joined forces with the Taliban. Four days later Gen. Abdul Malik changed sides again, and the Taliban were driven from the city. An offensive by another opposition leader, Ahmad Shah Masoud, drove the Taliban back to within 15 km (9.5 mi) of Kabul, and the capital was repeatedly bombed. By early September the Taliban forces were once more at the gates of Mazar-e Sharif, and by the end of the month they had cut the opposition's supply route by capturing the town of Hairatam, on the border with Uzbekistan. In mid-October, however, the opposition again pushed the Taliban back from Mazar-e Sharif.

      In Sri Lanka the government seemed no closer to crushing the rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by military means than it had been in the previous 14 years of this bitter conflict. In two major offensives government troops were unable to gain control of the strategic highway leading to the LTTE's stronghold in the north of the island. In August a top Sri Lankan air force officer, Vice-Marshal Elmo Perera, was fired for allegedly having participated in a scheme to buy several armed Mi-24 attack helicopters from Ukraine and then turn them over to the LTTE.

      Indian Defense Minister Mulayam Singh Yadav said in July that India was prepared to resume development of the Agni long-range ballistic missile. Work on this nuclear-capable weapon had been suspended in 1994. Both India and Pakistan continued to upgrade their armed forces. India took delivery of a number of Russian-built Su-30 fighters, and Pakistan received the first of 320 Tu-80 main battle tanks it had ordered from Ukraine. In early October Indian and Pakistani forces exchanged artillery fire across their disputed border in Kashmir. Stung by U.S. criticism of its human rights record, Indonesia in June canceled a contract for nine American-built F-16 fighters, turning instead to Russia for 12 Su-30 jets.

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      North Korea, lacking enough food to feed its population, remained a major threat to stability in the region. In April the most senior North Korean official ever to have defected warned that North Korea had plans to use both nuclear and chemical weapons against South Korea and Japan should war break out on the peninsula. Concern about the North's nuclear capability was fueled by Hans Blix, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, who announced in May that North Korea had hidden an unknown amount of plutonium from his inspectors.

      Efforts to convene four-power peace talks to end the Korean War officially, involving the two Koreas, China, and the U.S., made little progress. Two preparatory meetings broke down after the North Koreans demanded extensive food aid as a precondition for the talks and insisted that American military withdrawal from South Korea be on the agenda. Additional talks were held in December. In July North and South Korean troops exchanged heavy gunfire across the demilitarized zone. In its annual White Paper, the Japanese Defense Ministry listed North Korea as "a serious source of instability in the region." During the year the U.S. and Japan reviewed and updated the 1978 guidelines that had regulated their bilateral defense cooperation, and spelled out the sort of noncombat support Japan would provide should the U.S. have to become militarily involved in the region.

      Soldiers of the British army's Black Watch regiment mounted a last ceremonial guard in Hong Kong before some 4,000 soldiers of the Chinese Peoples' Liberation Army moved into the former British colony when it was returned to Chinese rule on July 1. Turning its attention to Taiwan, China later the same month exercised its East Sea Fleet in what were described as the largest Chinese naval maneuvers in 30 years. The Chinese continued to upgrade the quality of their weaponry. Arms imports from Russia included Su-27 jet fighters, advanced artillery systems, and a diesel-powered submarine. In September Pres. Jiang Zemin announced that China's armed forces—the largest in the world—would be reduced by 500,000 over the next three years.

      Civil war flared again in Cambodia after Second Prime Minister Hun Sen (see BIOGRAPHIES (Hun Sen )) ousted his co-premier, Prime Minister Prince Norodom Ranariddh, in a coup. By October royalist troops held only a few pockets along the border with Thailand.

Caribbean and Latin America.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Ending its virtual ban on the sale of high-technology weapons to Latin-American countries, the Clinton administration announced in August that requests for such weapons in the future would be considered on a case-by-case basis. Earlier in the year Lockheed Martin had been allowed to offer its F-16 jet fighters to Chile. Many feared that this new policy would trigger an arms race in the region.

      Although the military remained the final arbiter of power in Ecuador, it played a restrained role in the political crisis that followed the ouster of Pres. Abdalá Bucaram Ortíz in February. In Colombia the armed forces continued their sometimes uneven struggle against the two left-wing insurgent groups—the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) and the National Liberation Army—which were often allied with drug traffickers. The wealth derived from the drug business gave the groups access to advanced technology that matched or surpassed that used by the military. In a peace overture the FARC in June released 70 servicemen it had held for nearly a year. In August the government offered to withdraw its troops from some parts of the country in order to prepare for peace talks.

      Widespread complaints of physical and mental abuse to conscripts in the Chilean military led to calls by legislators and human rights groups to end compulsory military service. During a visit to Argentina in October, President Clinton announced that he would ask Congress to approve Argentina as a non-NATO strategic security partner of the U.S.—the first country in the hemisphere to be so designated.

Africa South of the Sahara.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      An arc of violence stretched from the Red Sea to the South Atlantic Ocean in 1997. Ill-equipped and seldom paid, the demoralized army of Zaire's Pres. Mobutu Sese Seko ) (Mobutu Sese Seko Koko Ngbendu wa za Banga )was powerless to stop the advances of the rebel Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo-Zaire (ADFL) led by Laurent Kabila. .) (Kabila, Laurent Desire ) Aided by troops from Rwanda and Uganda, the ADFL broke out of its eastern stronghold in February. Foreign mercenaries hired by Mobutu—many of them from former Yugoslavia—did little to slow the offensive. As the ADFL approached the capital, the Zairean armed forces melted away. On May 17 the ADFL captured Kinshasa; Kabila named himself president of the country, renaming it the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

      Unfortunately, the ouster of Mobutu did not bring peace to Central Africa. Tutsi-Hutu animosities, especially in the eastern Congo (Kinshasa), generated renewed attacks by various rebel groups into neighbouring Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi. Within Congo itself, anti-Tutsi feelings prompted several groups that had once supported Kabila to turn against his army, portraying it as a foreign invader.

      Even more serious fighting rocked the neighbouring Republic of the Congo, where more than 4,000 American, British, Belgian, French, and Portuguese troops had been deployed in case they were needed to evacuate their citizens from Kinshasa. In early June fighting between government forces and the militia loyal to former Congolese ruler Gen. Denis Sassou-Nguesso broke out in the capital, Brazzaville. In August it spread to the interior of the country. Fierce fighting in the capital continued through September and October, with the airport changing hands several times and artillery fire often falling on neighbouring Kinshasa. In October some 1,000 Angolan troops from the enclave of Cabinda entered the conflict, fighting alongside Sassou-Nguesso's Cobra militia in southern Congo. Warning that the expanding conflict was a serious threat to peace in west-central Africa, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan) (Annan, Kofi Atta ) asked the Security Council to approve a peacekeeping force for the Congo (Brazzaville), but Nguesso claimed victory before the UN could act.

      Fighting continued throughout most of the year in southern Sudan as the government's war with the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Army (SPLA) entered its 14th year. Both sides claimed significant gains, but the government had some success in attracting rebel faction leaders to its side. Meanwhile, officials in Kampala charged that Sudanese government troops and planes had crossed into northern Uganda to support Ugandan rebels. In September SPLA leader John Garang agreed to resume peace talks, and they convened in Nairobi, Kenya, the following month. The talks quickly broke down, however, and were recessed until April 1998.

      Elsewhere in Africa an army coup in May overthrew the government of Sierra Leone. Some 200 U.S. troops were deployed to Freetown to evacuate American and third-country personnel to a U.S. amphibious assault ship offshore. The Nigerian-led West African peacekeeping force (ECOMOG) in Sierra Leone was humiliated by the new government, which claimed to have captured more than 400 Nigerian troops in heavy fighting in October. The Nigerians bombed and shelled the capital and its harbour in an effort to enforce an economic blockade of the junta. ECOMOG was more successful in neighbouring Liberia, where it presided over the disarming of the various militias prior to the June elections that brought former warlord Charles Taylor) (Taylor, Charles Ghankay ) to power. In October Taylor announced plans to form a new national army.

New Technology.

      Australian scientists developed a handheld land mine detector; it combined a ground-probing radar and a conventional metal detector that could detect both metal and plastic mines.

DOUGLAS L. CLARKE

      This article updates military technology.

▪ 1997

Introduction

      Fifty-one years into the atomic era, the five acknowledged nuclear-weapons powers agreed in 1996 to ban nuclear explosions permanently, while the actions of one suspected nuclear-weapons state—India—complicated the long-term prospects for the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT). For the first time in many years, the guns were largely silent in former Yugoslavia as the NATO-led Implementation Force (IFOR) in Bosnia and Herzegovina enforced the peace accords negotiated in Dayton, Ohio, in November 1995 and signed in Paris the following month. As the year ended, however—and with it IFOR's mandate—the countries involved pondered their next move to preserve the shaky peace. The bitter war in the Russian republic of Chechnya continued to demoralize a Russian military already battered by several years of inadequate funding. Russian political and military leaders continued to warn NATO that its expansion into Central and Eastern Europe would endanger European security and most of the nuclear and conventional arms control agreements of recent decades. Two of the world's traditional flash points—the Middle East and the Korean peninsula—were once again the sites of dangerous military confrontations, and bloody civil wars continued in Central and South Asia.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      When India vetoed the draft CTBT at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD) in August because it did not commit the five acknowledged nuclear powers—the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom—to a timetable for complete nuclear disarmament, it looked as if the 40-year effort to ban all nuclear explosions had failed again. The treaty was submitted directly to the UN General Assembly, however, where the CD's consensus requirement did not apply, and it was approved on September 10. The CTBT was opened for signature on September 24, with U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton the first to sign. Before it could enter into force, the treaty had to be signed by the 44 states that had either nuclear power or research reactors. By the end of the year, 131 nations had signed, including 41 of the required 44. India led the holdouts, joined by another "threshold" nuclear power, Pakistan, which said it would not sign unless India did. In July the International Court of Justice gave an ambiguous and nonbinding ruling that the use or threat of nuclear weapons in war should be outlawed but that their use in self-defense would not violate international law. The five nuclear weapons powers signed the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty, but the U.S. said it was unable to support a similar zone in Southeast Asia because it believed that the treaty would inhibit freedom of the seas. Of the 53 African nations, 45 signed the Pelindaba Treaty establishing an African Nuclear Weapons Free Zone, as did all the nuclear powers.

      The U.S. Senate passed a resolution of ratification of the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II (START-II) treaty in January, but the Russian Federal Assembly (parliament) refused to take it up, with many legislators expressing the opinion that in 1993 Russia had been too hasty in signing what they considered to be a disadvantageous agreement. Both countries continued to cut their strategic nuclear forces in conformity with the earlier START-I treaty. All former Soviet nuclear weapons were repatriated from Ukraine by June 1, but Belarus continued to balk at allowing the last 18 SS-25 mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles to leave the country despite an earlier pledge that they would be out by the end of the year.

      The number of states ratifying the Chemical Weapons Convention reached 65; as a result, the treaty would enter into force in April 1997. While neither of the countries admitting to having the largest stockpiles of chemical weapons—Russia and the U.S.—had ratified the treaty, as signatories they would be required to abide by its provisions.

      Conventional weapons were in the arms control spotlight much of the year, and while the first review conference of the 1980 Inhumane Weapons Convention failed to ban antipersonnel land mines, the antimine movement gained momentum. (See Special Report (Combating the Land Mine Scourge ).) Negotiators at the review conference of the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty agreed to relax temporarily some of the limits placed on the numbers of weapons Russia could deploy in northwest Russia and in its troubled Caucasus region.

United States.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Legislation covering defense spending in two fiscal years was passed by the Congress in 1996: a revised defense authorization bill for fiscal year 1996 to replace the one vetoed by President Clinton in December 1995 and the authorization and appropriations bills for fiscal year 1997. In both cases the Republican-controlled Congress gave the military more than Clinton had requested. The revised fiscal year 1996 bill set defense spending at $265 billion, $7 billion more than the president had wanted, but it dropped the requirement to deploy a national antiballistic missile system by 2003 that had prompted Clinton's veto of the original bill. The fiscal year 1997 defense authorization bill, which Clinton signed in September, provided $265.6 billion, $11.5 billion more than the administration had requested. While some in the Congress wanted to reopen the B-2 stealth bomber production line, President Clinton directed that B-2 procurement funds added to the fiscal year 1996 budget by Congress be used to modernize the current fleet and bring the operational fleet to 21 aircraft by upgrading the B-2 test-flight vehicle.

      In its second and third trials, the army's Theater High-Altitude Area Defense system failed to intercept another missile. The program was cut back by the Pentagon in a move that drew the ire of a number of Republicans in Congress. During the year the navy christened its first Seawolf submarine and the last of the Los Angeles-class attack submarines that preceded it, as well as the 18th and last Trident ballistic missile submarine.

      Tragedy involving military forces overseas struck twice during the year. On April 3 an air force transport jet carrying Commerce Secretary Ron Brown (see OBITUARIES (Brown, Ronald Harmon )) and 34 other people crashed while attempting to land near Dubrovnik, Croatia. In the subsequent investigation, 2 generals and 14 other officers were censured. A terrorist bomb exploded on June 25 outside a barracks housing air force personnel in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 19 and injuring hundreds. An inquiry faulted the local U.S. commander as well as his superiors. Revelations that as many as 20,000 U.S. military personnel might have been exposed to nerve gas when an Iraqi weapons dump was blown up during the 1991 Persian Gulf War prompted renewed investigations into the Gulf War syndrome, a puzzling set of health complaints by some veterans of that action.

      The chief of naval operations, Adm. Jeremy Boorda (see OBITUARIES (Boorda, Jeremy Michael )), took his own life on May 16 after allegations that he had worn unearned attachments for valour on two Vietnam War ribbons. He was succeeded by Adm. Jay Johnson. Carol Mutter was promoted to lieutenant general in the Marine Corps in March, the first woman to achieve three-star rank. Adm. J. Paul Reason, who took command of the Atlantic Fleet in May, became the navy's first African-American four-star admiral. William Perry announced that he would step down as secretary of defense; William Cohen, a former Republican senator, was named as his replacement. The army began a service-wide investigation of sexual harassment after revelations that instructors at two training centres, the Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland and Ft. Leonard Wood, Missouri, had fraternized with, raped, and sexually abused female recruits.

      An army medic was dismissed from the service after a court-martial convicted him of disobeying a lawful order when he refused to wear a UN beret while serving on a peacekeeping mission in former Yugoslavia. Two marines and an air force sergeant were also court-martialed when they refused to have their blood screened for a military DNA bank, a program established to make it easier to identify future battlefield casualties. Federal courts in California, Washington, and the District of Columbia ruled in favour of the government in three cases in which servicemen who admitted they were gay had been discharged for violating the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy on homosexuals. One case was appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court, which refused to hear it.

NATO.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Operation Joint Endeavor, the NATO-led operation in Bosnia and Herzegovina that began in December 1995, marked its first ground force operation, its first deployment "out of area" (i.e., not on the territory of one of its members), and its first joint operation with its "Partnership for Peace" (PfP) allies and other non-NATO countries.

      NATO put off any announcement as to which countries would be invited to join the alliance until a summit meeting tentatively scheduled for mid-1997 was held. Russians across the political spectrum continued to be strongly opposed to the alliance's expanding into Central and Eastern Europe, while NATO leaders went out of their way to try to build stronger ties with Russia. NATO and Russian officials discussed the possibility of a formal charter between the two parties to regulate their consultations and joint actions, while NATO military leaders talked of enhancing the PfP into a "PfP Plus," creating a more meaningful military relationship with Russia in the process. With Europe's other traditionally neutral states—Austria, Finland, and Sweden—already members of the PfP, the Swiss government announced in September that it had agreed in principle to join.

      The Netherlands ended conscription in August. Both Spain and France, whose military forces were not part of NATO's integrated military structure, indicated that they were considering changing that policy. France received a setback when the U.S. balked at a French proposal that a European officer head NATO's Southern Command, a post that had traditionally been filled by a U.S. admiral.

      The Canadian military continued to be buffeted by the fallout from the scandal over an alleged coverup of the incidents of brutality against civilians by Canadian peacekeepers in Somalia in 1992 and 1993, a process exacerbated by allegations of similar misconduct by Canadian soldiers serving in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The minister of defense and the chief of defense staff both resigned in October. NATO allies Greece and Turkey had a serious military confrontation in January over a disputed island in the Aegean Sea.

United Kingdom.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Gen. Sir Charles Guthrie, the head of the British army, was named the new chief of defense staff. In August the defense minister announced that a new Joint Rapid Deployment Force would be formed that could quickly deploy as many as 8,000 troops anywhere in the world. The last Polaris ballistic missile submarine, HMS Repulse, was decommissioned in August, cutting the U.K.'s operational strategic nuclear submarine fleet to two Trident submarines.

      With surveys showing that four-fifths of military personnel approved of the ban on homosexuals' serving in the armed forces, the government announced in March that it had decided after a review that the ban would remain in effect. Parliament in May voted down legislation that would have overturned it. After a two-year investigation of the elite Household Cavalry Regiment, the Commission for Racial Equality charged that the military had been slow in developing and implementing plans to stop racial discrimination.

France.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Pres. Jacques Chirac announced revolutionary changes in France's military posture: ending the draft, doing away with all land-based nuclear missiles, and embarking on a five-year program to transform the current 500,000-strong military into an all-volunteer force numbering some 350,000. Included would be a 50,000-strong rapid reaction force capable of fighting "one and a half wars" at the same time. Conscription was to end in January 1997, to be replaced with a week of civic education that would be mandatory for all men turning 18; beginning in 2002 it would be mandatory for women as well. In July Defense Minister Charles Millon announced that 38 army regiments would be disbanded and one of the navy's two aircraft carriers would be retired.

      France conducted its last nuclear test in January and then began dismantling its test site at Mururoa and Fangatuafa atolls in French Polynesia. The last 15 remaining Mirage IVP nuclear bombers were retired in July, and the land-based component of the French strategic nuclear triad was abandoned in September when the 18 S3D intermediate-range ballistic missiles based in silos on the Plateau d'Albion were decommissioned. President Chirac also announced that France would stop producing fissile nuclear material and dismantle its Hades short-range nuclear missiles.

Germany.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Finally ending its postwar reluctance to send its armed forces outside the country, Germany sent 4,000 troops to Croatia and contributed electronic warfare, reconnaissance, and transport aircraft as well as medical, transportation, army helicopter, and logistic units to IFOR in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In September plans for a 1,000-strong elite special combat unit patterned after the British Special Air Service (SAS) were announced to give Germany a rapid-response capability. Defense Secretary Volker Rüehe also said that the military would be reduced from 370,000 to 338,000 and one of the army's eight divisions would be eliminated.

Turkey.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) The continuing armed confrontation with the militants of the Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) and the rise to power of a fundamentalist Muslim party served to dampen Turkey's relations with its NATO allies. In May Turkish troops forayed into northern Iraq in pursuit of PKK guerrillas, while in September and November the government launched major offensives against the PKK in eastern Turkey. In October the government announced an ambitious 30-year plan to spend some $150 billion to modernize its armed forces.

The Rest of Europe.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) By mid-February the initial deployment of the NATO-led IFOR into Bosnia and Herzegovina had been completed. Thirty-two nations had been part of the deployment, with nearly 50,000 troops provided by all NATO nations with armed forces and approximately 10,000 from the 18 non-NATO contributors to the overall effort. IFOR was given the responsibility for monitoring and enforcing compliance with the military aspects of the peace agreement. These included monitoring the withdrawal of the forces of the former combatants to their respective territories, establishing zones of separation, and controlling the airspace over Bosnia and Herzegovina as well as military traffic over key ground routes. Operation Sharp Guard, the naval embargo enforcement effort jointly carried out by NATO and the Western European Union (WEU), was terminated on October 1, when the UN lifted the economic sanctions against former Yugoslavia. On June 14 the warring factions in Bosnia signed a "subregional" arms control agreement patterned after the CFE treaty, agreeing to limit their holdings in the CFE's five categories of offensive weapons while destroying the excess over a 16-month period. NATO intelligence officers expressed concern in October that the Bosnian Serbs had far more heavy weapons than they had declared. The U.S. funded a program to train and equip the army of the Bosnian Muslim-Croat Federation to make it more militarily viable once the IFOR had withdrawn.

      Bosnian Serb military chief Gen. Ratko Mladic, an indicted war criminal, was fired in November. He refused to step down and instead established an alternate military headquarters with staff officers loyal to him. In December the countries providing troops to IFOR agreed to provide a smaller force totaling 30,000 for another 18 months. Some of these units would be earmarked for use in Bosnia if needed but would be stationed in adjacent areas.

      Switzerland revealed in May that it had maintained a secret nuclear weapons program for 43 years, with plans to build 400 nuclear warheads. The program was abandoned in 1989. While declining an invitation to provide a military contingent for IFOR, the Swiss sent 80 logistics troops to Bosnia under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The U.S. and the U.K. disclosed that they had both hidden stockpiles of arms in Austria during the early years of the Cold War. The weapons would have been used by Austrian anticommunist guerrillas in the event of a Soviet invasion. On September 9 Hungary and Romania signed a treaty providing for advance notification of troop movement within 80 km (50 mi) of their common border.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) The war in the breakaway republic of Chechnya continued to top the list of Russian security concerns. A group of Chechen separatists in January attacked Russian soldiers in the town of Kyzlar in the neighbouring republic of Dagestan and holed up in a hospital with nearly 2,000 hostages. Although they were promised free passage back to Chechnya in return for the release of most of the hostages, their convoy was attacked and encircled by Russian forces in the village of Pervomayskoye, Dagestan. The Russians bombarded the village for four days and nights. In the end most of the Chechen fighters escaped. The incident exposed further shortcomings within the demoralized Russian military and other security forces. In late February the federal forces began a new phase of the war by concentrating on routing armed Chechen self-defense units from rural towns and villages, often with considerable loss of civilian lives. In response, the Chechen separatists in early March conducted a successful foray into the Russian-held Chechen capital of Grozny, briefly holding one-third of the city. On March 31 Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin announced a peace plan that included an immediate halt to most military operations. The armed forces, however, intensified their offensive operations in western and eastern Chechnya. On April 22 Chechen president Dzhokhar Dudayev (see OBITUARIES (Dudayev, Dzhokhar )) was killed by a missile launched from a Russian helicopter while he was making a satellite telephone call. Largely as the result of OSCE mediation, a preliminary cease-fire document was initialed in the Kremlin by Russian and Chechen leaders, and detailed armistice protocols were signed June 10. The Russians agreed to withdraw the troops not permanently assigned to the North Caucasus Military District by the end of August.

      Yeltsin was reelected president in July, with Aleksandr Lebed (see BIOGRAPHIES (Lebed, Aleksandr Ivanovich )), the former commander of the 14th Army in Moldova, finishing a strong third. Yeltsin named Lebed secretary of the Security Council and fired Defense Minister Pavel Grachev while purging many generals in the armed forces. Grachev was succeeded by Col. Gen. Igor Rodionov, best known in the West for the bloody suppression of civilians in Tbilisi, Georgia, in 1989 by troops under his command. Federal forces in Chechnya had resumed offensive operations following the presidential elections.

      On August 6 the Chechen separatists stunned the federal forces by retaking most of Grozny. This prompted Yeltsin to name Lebed as his plenipotentiary envoy to Chechnya. On August 22 Lebed signed a cease-fire agreement with Chechen chief of staff Aslan Maskhadov. On August 31 the two signed a landmark accord in Khasavyurt, Dagestan, to end the war and demilitarize Chechnya. Although nationalists branded the accord a sellout, some federal military commanders threatened to sabotage it, and Yeltsin was slow to endorse it, the agreement held for the rest of the year. Often publicly at odds with many of his colleagues in the government, Lebed was fired by Yeltsin on October 17.

      During his reelection campaign Yeltsin had issued a decree calling for the military to do away with conscription by the turn of the century. It was clearly a step the military could not afford, and Rodionov finally said as much, noting that it would be at least 2005 before an all-volunteer force would be economically possible. Indeed, government support for the military was so meagre that morale was low, and there were reports of suicides among the officers.

      After an October meeting in Moscow between Ukrainian Pres. Leonid Kuchma and the ailing Yeltsin, it looked as if the two countries had finally resolved the problem of dividing the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet, but such hopes remained illusory. While the division of the ships, airplanes, and most shore facilities had been agreed upon long ago, the two remained at odds over the fate of the Crimean port of Sevastopol, where the Russians insisted that only its fleet must have its headquarters.

      Civil war threatened to break out again in Tajikistan, where tribal and ethnic loyalties took precedence over national ones. Early in the year the elite 1st Motorized-Rifle Brigade briefly mutinied. Rather than extending the UN-moderated cease-fire when it expired in late May, government troops began an offensive against the opposition forces. Moscow helped to reconvene on July 8 the UN-mediated inter-Tajik negotiations in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, which produced an armistice agreement on July 19 between the Moscow-backed government and the armed opposition. Government troops immediately violated the armistice, however, by launching a successful operation to seize the town of Tavildara. In mid-September the opposition routed superior but clearly unmotivated government forces in Garm, the narrow "waist" section of Tajikistan connecting the western and eastern parts of the country. This prompted the Russian commander in Tajikistan to seek the aid of the Afghan government in sealing off the border to United Tajik Opposition infiltrators who regularly operated out of Afghanistan. This aid was short-lived, as the Afghan government became preoccupied with its struggle with the Taliban militia.

      Georgian Pres. Eduard Shevardnadze withheld consent to the renewal of the Russian "peacekeeping" forces' existing mandate, which expired on July 19. He indicated Georgia would not ratify the treaty allowing the Russians to maintain three military bases in Georgia unless Russia helped end the Abkhazian independence effort.

Middle East.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) According to U.S. intelligence estimates, by early 1996 Iraqi Pres. Saddam Hussein had rebuilt his armed forces into a smaller but more capable force than he possessed before his ill-fated invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Rolf Ekeus, the chief UN weapons inspector in the country, said that Iraq could have as many as 16 mobile missiles armed with biological warheads and that his inspectors had been barred from several sites. Still not convinced that Iraq had complied with all its resolutions, the UN Security Council refused to lift the economic embargo on the nation. On August 31 an Iraqi force estimated at as large as 40,000 troops pushed into the northern exclusion zone that had been established by the U.S., Great Britain, and France to protect the Kurds living in that region. Hussein was responding to an appeal from the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) led by Massoud Barzani to counter what Barzani claimed was support of another Kurdish faction, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), by Iran. President Clinton responded by ordering U.S. navy and air force units to fire 34 cruise missiles at Iraqi air defense installations in the southern exclusion zone. After driving the PUK out of Erbil, the Iraqi forces retired. Subsequently, the PUK retook much of the territory it had lost to the Iraqi-assisted KDP, which raised concerns that Hussein might again intervene.

      In March Libyan leader Col. Muammar al-Qaddafi said that Arabs had a right to possess chemical and biological weapons to compensate for Israeli nuclear weapons. CIA sources had reported that Libya was building the world's largest underground chemical weapons plant near Tarhunah.

      Israel signed two military cooperation agreements with Turkey, one of which allowed Israeli air force jets to use Turkish bases and airspace for training. Both countries were concerned about Syria, which had moved troops toward the Turkish border in June. Israeli media reports disclosed that in August Syria had tested a long-range Scud-C missile that had the ability to reach all of Israel's major cities. The following month Israel's Arrow 2 antimissile missile passed its first test under combat conditions when it successfully intercepted a missile at high altitude. The Israeli-Palestinian peace process slowed under the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and took an ugly turn in September when Israeli troops and Palestinian police exchanged gunfire as Palestinians rioted in the Gaza Strip and on the West Bank.

South and Central Asia.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Although repulsed by government forces when they attacked Kabul in May, the Taliban Islamic militia swept into the Afghan capital in September and looked as if they would soon overrun the entire country. When they tried to push on to the north to the strategic Panshir Valley and Salang Tunnel, however, they were stopped by the combined forces of Gen. 'Abd ar-Rashid Dostam and Ahmad Shah Masoud, the military adviser of deposed president Burhanuddin Rabbani. At the year's end the Taliban seemed firmly in control of Kabul.

      In a major offensive in April, Sri Lankan armed forces took control of the entire northern Jaffna peninsula, the heartland of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam separatists. Three months later, however, the Tamil Tigers dealt the Sri Lankan army its worst defeat of the 13-year-old war when they overran a government base on the mainland, killing or capturing more than 1,000 soldiers and gaining a large arsenal of weapons.

      Pakistan and India exchanged artillery fire along the disputed Kashmir border in late January. That same month India tested a longer-range version of the nuclear-capable Prithvi surface-to-surface missile. Reacting to rumours that India might conduct a second nuclear test, Pakistani leaders warned that they would respond in kind. Despite concerns about Pakistan's nuclear program, the U.S. government approved the transfer of $368 million in military equipment that had been held up for six years. The shipments included three P-3C maritime patrol aircraft, antiship missiles, and artillery but not the 28 F-16 fighters Pakistan had paid for. Instead, the U.S. government sought a foreign buyer for the jets so that Pakistan could be reimbursed.

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Several military provocations by North Korea against South Korea created a tense atmosphere on the Korean peninsula throughout the year. In April and May heavily armed North Korean soldiers staged three incursions into the demilitarized zone dividing the two countries, while on May 22 five North Korean gunboats were chased from South Korean territorial waters. That same day a North Korean air force pilot defected to South Korea in his MiG-19 fighter. At a press conference he warned that North Korea was preparing for an invasion of the South. In the most serious incident, a North Korean minisubmarine was found beached on South Korea's eastern coast in September. Of the estimated 26 North Koreans who came ashore from the submarine, 1 was captured, 13 were killed by South Korean troops, and 11 others were found dead in what seemed to be a case of murder-suicide. The episode prompted South Korean Pres. Kim Young Sam to replace his defense minister and fire two army commanders.

      Early in the year China mobilized as many as 400,000 troops along its eastern coast in what was seen as an attempt to intimidate Taiwan during its presidential election campaign. In March China carried out a series of ballistic missile tests just off the coast of Taiwan, which led President Clinton to order a second carrier battle group to the region. In response, China canceled a planned visit to Washington by its defense minister. Chinese-U.S. relations were also strained by allegations that China had supplied missile technology to Pakistan.

      Anti-American feelings remained high in Japan after the conviction in March of three U.S. servicemen for the rape of an Okinawan girl in 1995. The U.S. government agreed to return some of the land it used for bases on the island. President Clinton and Japanese Prime Minister Ryutaro Hashimoto issued a joint declaration on security in April that pledged to keep 100,000 U.S. troops in the Asia-Pacific region and not cut U.S. forces in Japan.

Caribbean and Latin America.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) In February Cuban jets shot down two small civilian aircraft from the U.S. over international waters off Havana. The planes were piloted by members of a group opposed to Cuban Pres. Fidel Castro.

      Faced with widespread police corruption, the Mexican government transferred an unprecedented number of military officers into law enforcement. While the Zapatista rebels in Chiapas were negotiating peace with the government, a second rebel movement, the leftist Popular Revolutionary Army, launched coordinated attacks in three other states in August. Leftist rebels were also active in Colombia, where the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia in late August won its greatest victory in overrunning an army base at Las Delicias. Earlier in the year, the government had placed five provinces under a limited form of military rule. In March Colombia signed a five-year military cooperation pact with Russia, the first Latin-American country to do so. That same month the government of Guatemala and the rebel Guatemala National Revolutionary Unity agreed to a cease-fire. The two parties in December signed a formal accord ending 36 years of civil war.

      The head of Paraguay's army, Gen. Lino Oviedo, refused to step down in April after he was fired by Pres. Juan Carlos Wasmosy. The impasse was broken when Wasmosy said he would name Oviedo defense minister, a pledge he broke following public outrage at the deal. Argentine Pres. Carlos Menem fired the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the heads of the navy and air force in October for not supporting his military reforms. Peruvian armed forces had apparently been infiltrated by drug smugglers, as cocaine shipments were uncovered on several naval vessels and military aircraft. Peru and Ecuador agreed to begin direct talks to resolve their long-standing border dispute, which had led to armed clashes in 1995. Nicaragua built up its naval presence in the Caribbean as a result of territorial disputes with Colombia and Honduras.

      The U.S. was embarrassed by revelations that in the 1980s training manuals at the School of the Americas in Ft. Benning, Georgia, a military school for Latin-American officers, had included suggestions that torture and other human rights violations were acceptable tactics in counterinsurgency operations.

Africa South of the Sahara.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the Wolrd).) Ethnic animosity between the Tutsi and Hutu continued to spark violence in Burundi, Rwanda, and Zaire and threatened to degenerate into a three-way regional war. The Tutsi-controlled army in Burundi was engaged in a virtual civil war with the Hutu majority population before seizing control of the government in July. In Zaire government soldiers attacked camps housing refugees from Rwanda, and there were several border clashes between the two countries. Rwandan army units crossed into Zaire to aid Tutsi rebels in seizing the cities of Bukavu and Goma. A Canadian-led international military force was sent to eastern Zaire in November to ensure the safety of the estimated 750,000 refugees there. Major contributions to the force were made by the U.S., Great Britain, and France. The military under Gen. Ibrahim Baré Mainassara (see BIOGRAPHIES (Mainassara, Ibrahim Bare )) also seized power in Niger, and it took the intervention of 1,700 French troops to put down an army revolt in the Central African Republic. Soldiers in Guinea mutinied in early February over pay, shelling and destroying the presidential palace.

      Liberia remained in a state of virtual anarchy, with the 8,600-strong West African peacekeeping force unable to halt the long-running civil war. During April and May U.S. military forces evacuated more than 2,300 persons from Monrovia, the capital. The cease-fire in Angola between the government and the opposition National Union for the Total Independence of Angola movement held, but both sides were slow in implementing the 1994 peace accord. The UN announced that it would keep to its schedule of withdrawing some of its 7,000 troops by the end of the year. A U.S. proposal to organize, train, and equip a 10,000-strong all-African force for future peacekeeping missions on the continent made little headway.

      In February and March Nigeria and Cameroon clashed over the potentially oil-rich Bakassi peninsula, claimed by both. The dispute between Eritrea and Yemen over two islands in the Red Sea moved toward a peaceful resolution. In late August Eritrea announced it would withdraw its troops from Lesser Hamish Island, which it had occupied early in the month. In May Ethiopia accused The Sudan of conducting cross-border operations in preparation for a major attack, while The Sudan charged that Ethiopian artillery fire in support of rebels in southern Sudan had killed more than 800 people. In September Uganda threatened to retaliate against what it reported was an attack on an army barracks in the northern town of Moyo by Sudanese jets. Each country accused the other of harbouring and aiding rebel groups.

      With the UN forces gone from Somalia, the various factions resumed their internecine fighting. A brief cease-fire in Mogadishu followed the August 1 death of faction leader Muhamad Farah Aydid. (See OBITUARIES (Aydid, Gen. Muhammad Farah ).) He was succeeded by his son, Hussein, who had served with the U.S. Marine Corps in Somalia. In October Kenya brokered a short-lived cease-fire agreement between the leaders of the three main factions.

      South Africa continued to form its new, integrated South African National Defense Force. Budgetary constraints forced the government in March to cancel many planned major weapons acquisition programs. Parliament in May adopted a new defense policy that banned discrimination against women and gays in the armed forces. In October Gen. Magnus Malan, a former South African defense minister, was acquitted of murder and conspiracy charges in connection with a 1987 massacre of 13 African National Congress supporters.

New Technology.

      A scaled-down prototype of the U.S. X-36 tailless jet fighter was unveiled in February. The aircraft used split ailerons to provide directional control. In a joint U.S.-Israeli test, a ground-based laser downed an unguided rocket of the type typically used in modern multiple-launch rocket systems.

      (DOUGLAS L. CLARKE)

      This article updates military technology.

▪ 1996

Introduction

      In 1995 the Allies of World War II celebrated the 50th anniversary of their victories over Nazi Germany and Japan, but not without some controversy and angst. (See Special Report (1945—A Watershed Year ).) In Washington, D.C., the Smithsonian Institution's planned exhibit of the Enola Gay—the B-29 from which the atomic bomb was dropped on Hiroshima—was criticized by veterans groups and others as being a revisionist history of that event. (See Sidebar (MUSEUMS: The Smithsonian ).) In Moscow world leaders joined Russian politicians and Soviet military veterans in commemorating the end of the war in Europe, while a demoralized Russian army was bogged down in a humiliating and bitter war in the breakaway Russian republic of Chechnya. Talk of a half century of peace in Europe had a hollow ring during most of the year in former Yugoslavia, where the conflicts entered a new stage marked by the military resurgence of the Bosnian Muslims, a stunning Croatian offensive, and the dramatic escalation of NATO military pressure on the Bosnian Serbs. The NATO strikes triggered strong negative reactions in Moscow and, when coupled with fears of NATO's eastward expansion, soured the relations between Russia and the alliance. Serbia, Croatia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina finally signed a peace agreement, and the first troops of the NATO-led (IFOR) were in place as the year ended.

      The spectre of nuclear weapons proliferation continued to be a major concern. United Nations inspectors discovered that Iraq had been much closer to assembling a nuclear bomb in 1991 than previously estimated. In May the delegates to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review and Extension Conference adopted by acclamation a decision to extend the treaty indefinitely, an outcome that had been in some doubt. Terrorist use of weapons of mass destruction moved from theory to reality in March when a Japanese cult released nerve gas in the Tokyo subway system, killing 12 and sending more than 5,500 to the hospital. Despite strong pressure from the United States, Russia refused to back away from a deal to provide Iran with nuclear reactors. The 1994 agreement in which North Korea pledged to give up its existing nuclear program in return for receiving two modern reactors was slowly being implemented and in June the U.S. and North Korea reached an agreement on the type of reactors that would be provided.

      After the painful decision had been taken to withdraw all of the United Nations Mission in Somalia II (UNOSOM II) forces, a combined international task force with contributions from seven countries successfully covered the withdrawal in early March of the last 2,400 UN peacekeepers from Mogadishu. Some 57,000 UN peacekeepers were deployed around the world in 16 other forces and missions. In January UN Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali appealed for the formation of a UN rapid-reaction force as a strategic reserve for future emergencies but found few countries willing to contribute.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      The two treaties considered to be the linchpins of nuclear and conventional arms control came under some pressure in 1995. Continuing U.S. efforts to develop defense systems against theatre ballistic missiles raised strident objections in Moscow that Washington planned to abandon the 1972 antiballistic missile (ABM) treaty. Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin sent the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks II (START-II) treaty to the State Duma (parliament) in June for ratification, but in both Washington and Moscow, other security and political concerns pushed the START-II ratification process into the background. Implementation of the START-I treaty continued without any major difficulty, with baseline on-site inspections completed in June. In April Russian and Kazakh officials announced that all former Soviet strategic nuclear weapons had been removed from Kazakhstan and repatriated to Russia. All such weapons were scheduled to be transferred from Belarus during the year also, but Belarusian Pres. Alyaksandr Lukashenka in July "temporarily suspended" the removal of the last 18 SS-25 mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles from Belarusian territory. Ukraine continued to download warheads from the missiles on its territory. By year's end it had shipped an estimated 700 strategic warheads to Russia. Both Russia and the U.S. continued to dismantle their surplus warheads.

      The numerical ceilings on offensive conventional arms mandated by the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty became effective on November 17, and most—but not all—of the 30 states party to the treaty had eliminated their excess weapons by that date. A more serious challenge to the treaty was Russia's refusal to meet the so-called "flanks" limitations placed upon it by the treaty. In September NATO offered to allow Russia to redraw the boundaries of its North Caucasus military district so as to partially offset the treaty's restrictions, but Turkey balked at a Russian counterproposal that called for even more territorial concessions.

      The commitment on the part of the nuclear powers to negotiate a Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996 at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD) had been an important factor in approval of the indefinite extension of the NPT. Thus, many were dismayed when China conducted an underground test less than three days after the conference had adjourned. Protests were even louder when incoming French Pres. Jacques Chirac announced that France would conduct up to six nuclear tests before the end of May 1996. On September 5 the first test took place at Mururoa atoll in the South Pacific. France conducted four additional tests during the year but joined with China in pledging to work for an unconditional CTBT in 1996. By the end of the year, 182 states had signed the NPT, with Brazil, India, Israel, and Pakistan the most significant absentees.

      In March the U.S. Senate finally ratified the 1980 Convention on Conventional Weapons, which, inter alia, places restrictions on the use of antipersonnel landmines. In September a UN review conference met in Vienna with the goal of tightening the convention's restrictions on the use of such mines, but the 42 participants adjourned without an agreement. The 1993 Chemical Weapons Convention continued to limp toward implementation. Of the 160 signatories, only 47 (of the required 65) had deposited their instruments of ratification by year's end. Neither of the two admitted chemical weapons states—signatories Russia and the U.S.—had yet ratified the convention. In contrast, there was some progress in replacing the defunct Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls with a broader regime, informally called the New Forum, to guide the export of conventional weapons and technology in the future.

United States.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Congress approved a national defense budget authority of $263.5 billion for fiscal year 1995 and supplemented this with $3.1 billion to pay for contingency costs related to the operations in Haiti, former Yugoslavia, and the Persian Gulf. The Clinton administration's Future Year's Defense Program for 1996 differed significantly from the 1995 version, with a shift from procurement to readiness and improving the quality of military life. While parsimonious in most other budget areas, the Republican-controlled Congress was inclined to be generous to the Department of Defense in the fiscal year 1996 budget, although the impasse between the president and the Congress over eventually balancing the budget meant that nothing had been resolved as that fiscal year began. In November Congress passed a $243.3 billion defense appropriations bill that was $7 billion larger than Pres. Bill Clinton had requested. It called for the continued construction of B-2 strategic bombers, financed a third Seawolf attack submarine, provided for continued development of the F-22 fighter, and added $529 million to Clinton's $2.9 billion missile defense request. A national missile defense program received $745.6 million, more than twice the amount requested by the administration, while the conflict between such a program and the ABM treaty was postponed by compromise wording that directed the Department of Defense to "develop" a national system by the end of 2003 rather than "deploy" one, as called for in the original Senate bill. Clinton reluctantly signed the appropriations bill but vetoed the $275 billion defense authorization bill because it again called for the design of an ABM system by 2003.

      In September the Department of Defense established the policy of prohibiting the use of lasers specifically designed to blind enemy personnel. Several new weapons systems were unveiled in 1995, among them the Seawolf fast attack submarine, the prototype of the army's RAH-66 Comanche armed reconnaissance helicopter, and the navy's F/A-18E "Super Hornet" strike fighter.

      John White, who chaired the Commission on Roles and Missions of the Armed Forces, a congressionally mandated panel, was appointed deputy secretary of defense to replace John Deutsch, who left to head the CIA. (See BIOGRAPHIES (White, Tim D. ).) The commission report released on May 24 skirted many of the roles and missions issues. It recommended the creation of a joint training command, a larger planning and policy role for overseas commanders, and a new agency to develop doctrine for joint operations.

      In March a federal district court declared unconstitutional the administration's "don't ask, don't tell" policy regarding homosexuals in the military. The government said it would appeal. After studying 10,000 Persian Gulf War veterans suffering from the so-called Gulf War syndrome, the Department of Defense concluded that there was no single or unique illness involved. Four Army Ranger trainees died of exposure during an exercise in February at Eglin Air Force Base, Florida; nine instructors were disciplined. When none of the personnel involved in the tragic April 1994 downing by U.S. fighters of two U.S. Army helicopters over northern Iraq were convicted of any wrongdoing, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Ronald Fogleman in August wrote derogatory "letters of evaluation" on seven officers involved in the incident, effectively ending their military careers. An army counterintelligence officer, Capt. Lawrence Rockwood, was dismissed from the service in May after a court-martial found him guilty of disobeying orders while serving in Haiti in September 1994. He had left his post to investigate possible human rights abuses in the Port-au-Prince prison. After a long legal battle, in August Shannon Faulkner became the first woman to be admitted to the Citadel, a military college in Charleston, S.C., only to drop out during initiation week, citing severe stress. In October the Supreme Court declined to hear an appeal filed on her behalf.

NATO.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      NATO's "Partnership for Peace" (PfP) program continued to expand, with Austria, Belarus, Malta, and Macedonia joining in 1995. Non-NATO membership stood at 27, with Tajikistan the only successor state to the U.S.S.R. not a participant. The scope and frequency of multilateral PfP peacekeeping exercises picked up and included the first such maneuvers to be held in the U.S. While Russia approved its individual PfP program with NATO in May, its relations with the alliance became increasingly strained as the states of Central Europe repeated their desire to join NATO. In September NATO released its study on enlargement, and while it stressed that such a move would threaten no one, the study failed to ease Russian concerns, especially when officials in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary said they would be ready to accept NATO nuclear weapons on their soil as part of their membership obligations.

      NATO Secretary-General Willy Claes was forced to resign in October after the Belgian Parliament lifted his immunity in connection with a procurement scandal that took place when he was economics minister. His deputy, Italian diplomat Sergio Balanzino, took over as acting secretary-general as the alliance searched for a permanent replacement. He was succeeded by Javier Solana, the Spanish minister of foreign affairs.

      In January the Canadian government ordered the disbanding of its Airborne Regiment, an elite unit often used in peacekeeping missions. Nine members of the regiment were put on trial in connection with the torture and killing of a civilian in Somalia in 1993. The four partners in the Eurofighter 2000 project, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U.K., continued negotiations on how they would divide the production. Eight countries were also cooperating in the Future Large Aircraft (FLA) project, a program to provide a new military transport by 2002. On March 28 Belgium and The Netherlands signed an agreement to merge the operational staffs of their navies into an integrated centre in Den Helder by the end of the year. Belgium became the second European NATO country, after the U.K., to end conscription.

      France, Italy, and Spain signed the founding documents for the creation of an army joint rapid reaction force (EUROFOR) and a European maritime force (EUROMARFOR) to provide extra security in the Mediterranean at a time of mounting concern over the security situation in the region. Portugal asked to join both. The 50,800-strong European Corps, answerable to the Western European Union and made up of troops from Germany, France, Belgium, and Spain, officially became operational on October 1.

      As peace talks on Bosnia and Herzegovina in Dayton, Ohio, bore fruit in mid-November, NATO military authorities were working out plans for deploying as many as 60,000 troops to guarantee the peace. Russian participation was deemed crucial, but the Russians made it clear they would not serve under NATO command, while the U.S. and other NATO members were equally insistent that NATO be in charge of the peace force. Ultimately, the Russians agreed to provide a brigade that would serve in a U.S. division but receive orders through a Russian general. The Bosnian peace agreement was signed on December 14, and six days later the UN turned over control of military operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina to NATO. By the end of the year, it had more than 17,000 troops in Bosnia.

United Kingdom.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      In May, Defence Secretary Malcolm Rifkind announced that a new permanent Joint Headquarters would be established at Northwood by April 1, 1996. It would both plan for and execute joint operations, responsibilities presently handled on a temporary, ad hoc basis. A new Headquarters, Land Command, was established for all army units at home and overseas. In Prime Minister John Major's June Cabinet reshuffle, Michael Portillo was named to replace Rifkind.

      HMS Vigilant, the third Vanguard-class Trident missile submarine, was rolled out on October 14; it was scheduled to enter operational service in 1998. By the end of 1998, the Trident submarines would be Britain's only nuclear delivery system, as the government announced in April that the Royal Air Force would loose its nuclear capability by that date with the withdrawal from service of the WE-177 free-fall nuclear bomb. In November the United States agreed to provide U.S.-built Tomahawk conventionally armed cruise missiles for the Royal Navy's nuclear-powered attack submarines.

      In September the Ministry of Defence announced that it would review all aspects of its policy of excluding homosexuals from the armed forces after the High Court ruled that the current policy was lawful but urged that it be reviewed. Major and French Pres. Jacques Chirac signed a new bilateral defense agreement on October 30 in which they agreed to exchange technical information on their nuclear weapons.

France.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Chirac, who took office on May 17, named Charles Millon as his minister of defense, and in June the new government announced an 8.5% cut in 1995 weapons procurement. Millon said that no major programs would be terminated, but he admitted that the previous year's 1995-2000 procurement blueprint was no longer credible. In September the government announced that it would limit military procurement spending in the 1996 budget to F 95 billion, a 15% cut. Reports indicated that the government planned to abandon the land-based missile leg of its nuclear triad by closing down the base on the Plateau d'Albion in southeastern France. The controversial nuclear tests in the South Pacific served to certify the new TN-75 warhead for the next generation of M-45 submarine-launched ballistic missiles. In addition, France planned to develop a new long-range air-launched cruise missile with a nuclear warhead to provide a nuclear capability for the new Rafale fighter-bombers. In December France agreed to rejoin NATO's military wing. Some 900 French troops were sent to the former French territory of the Comoros in October to put down a coup by army rebels and white mercenaries.

Germany.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      On January 1 the operational forces of the Bundeswehr in the former East Germany were assigned to NATO, completing a four-year effort to integrate the units in the new states into the national forces. On March 15 Defense Minister Volker Rühe announced plans to trim the armed forces by 32,000 to 338,000 and to reduce conscription to 10 months. The new Crisis Reaction Forces would include 37,000 army, 12,300 air force, and 4,300 navy personnel. A Special Forces Command would be established at Calw, near Stuttgart. There would be 22 peacetime brigades—a drop of two—and one of the present eight divisions was to be abolished. German Tornadoes flew reconnaissance and air-defense suppression missions in Bosnia and Herzegovina in support of NATO's Rapid Reaction Force, and the government announced that it would contribute as many as 6,000 men to the Bosnian peace implementation force.

Turkey.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Beginning on March 20, 35,000 Turkish troops, backed by tanks and planes, marched into part of northern Iraq to crush Kurdish rebels of the outlawed Kurdish Workers' Party. The Turks withdrew in early May. A second five-day incursion by some 3,000 troops took place in July. These events strained Turkish relations with its NATO allies and prompted Norway, The Netherlands, and Germany to halt arms transfers to Turkey for a time.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Russia signed military-basing agreements with Armenia and Georgia, and Russian border troops patrolled the external borders of most CIS members. Russian peacekeeping troops were active in Moldova, Tajikistan, and the Georgian region of Abkhazia. Russia and Ukraine agreed to divide the rusting Black Sea Fleet, with 82% of the ships going to Russia. Sevastopol, in Ukraine, would be the Russian base.

      After the failure of the New Year's Eve attack on Grozny, the Chechen capital, Russian Defense Minister Pavel Grachev called in elite units from throughout Russia to bolster the federal government's military contingent in the breakaway republic. Still, the stubborn Chechen militants continued to expose the weaknesses in morale, leadership, and equipment of the Russian troops, who could not drive Dzhokhar Dudayev's supporters out of the capital until February 8. Fierce fighting continued in other parts of the republic for months more. The bungled military intervention revealed deep fissures in Russia's military leadership. More than 500 military officers refused to take part in the Chechen operations. Yeltsin ultimately fired four deputy defense ministers, including Boris Gromov, the popular last commander of Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Another military critic of the operation was Lieut. Gen. Aleksandr Lebed, the charismatic leader of the Russian 14th Army deployed in the Transdniestr region of Moldova. Lebed resigned to enter politics after his command was downgraded.

      The reputation of Russia's military and security forces was further sullied in June when army and elite Interior Ministry antiterrorist troops were unable to dislodge a Chechen separatist band from a hospital in the southern Russian town of Budennovsk, where they had holed up with over 1,000 hostages. Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin on June 18 negotiated an end to the siege by offering a truce in Chechnya and freedom for the attackers. On July 30 Russian and Chechen negotiators signed an agreement calling for the disarmament of the Chechen separatists and the withdrawal of most of the federal troops. An Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe mission went to Grozny to observe compliance with the agreement. Shooting incidents continued to take a steady toll of Russian troops. On October 9 the disarming and withdrawal were suspended following the attempted assassination of the commander of federal forces in Chechnya.

      Tajikistan was another spot where Russian servicemen suffered regular casualties, mainly border troops trying to prevent Tajik dissidents from entering the country from Afghanistan. Inside Tajikistan two brigades of the Tajikistan army came to blows as they competed for influence in the Kurgan-Tyube region.

      In an incident reminiscent of a Soviet response at the height of the Cold War, Belarus air defense forces on September 13 shot down a hot-air balloon that had drifted into Belarusian airspace while participating in a prestigious international race; the two American crew members were killed.

The Rest of Europe.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Fortune in the conflicts in former Yugoslavia turned against the Serbs in 1995, with impressive gains by the Bosnian government and Croatian armies and forceful military actions rather than their usual bluffs and threats by the frustrated NATO forces. In March the Bosnian government went on the offensive in the central and northern parts of the country. Croatian forces, in a 48-hour blitzkrieg that began on May 1, seized the territory in western Croatia that had been held by the self-proclaimed Republic of Serbian Krajina (RSK). On May 25-26 NATO aircraft struck a Bosnian Serb ammunition dump near Pale at the request of the UN Protection Force (UNPROFOR) following Bosnian Serb shelling of UN safe areas. The Serbs retaliated by taking several hundred UNPROFOR soldiers hostage. On June 2 U.S. Air Force Capt. Scott F. O'Grady's F-16C was shot down over western Bosnia and Herzegovina by a Bosnian Serb SAM-6 missile. O'Grady was rescued six days later, having used his survival training to evade searching Serbs, and returned to a hero's welcome in the U.S. The U.K., France, and The Netherlands contributed the troops for an 8,700-man Rapid Reaction Force that began to arrive in the region in mid-June. More mobile and with heavy weapons, this force was to back up the 20,500 UNPROFOR troops already deployed. In July the Bosnian Serb forces took Srebrenica, one of the UN's declared "safe areas," after humiliating the 400 Dutch UN peacekeepers stationed there. This prompted a debate on whether to reinforce or withdraw the NATO and UN forces. In mid-July the U.S. deployed its newest unmanned reconnaissance aircraft to Grader, Albania, to support the UN and NATO forces. Two of these "Predator" spy drones were lost within a four-day period in August. In early August the Serbs captured Zepa, another of the UN safe areas, and attacked Bihac. This was to be their high-water mark. On the morning of August 4, Croatia launched an offensive with its 100,000-man army along the entire 1,125-km (700-mi) front separating the RSK from the rest of Croatia and in a five-day blitz regained control over almost all of the country. This was the largest army to fight in Europe in 50 years. On August 10 NATO and UN commanders signed a memorandum of agreement concerning NATO air operations to protect the remaining safe areas, and on August 30 NATO began Operation Deliberate Force, a massive application of air and artillery power aiming to force the Bosnian Serbs to respect the safe areas. After a brief pause, the strikes continued on September 5, and five days later they included the firing of 13 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles against Bosnian Serb air defense installations by a U.S. cruiser in the Adriatic Sea. The parties to the conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina agreed to a 60-day cease-fire, which began on October 11.

Middle East.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      The UN Security Council retained the economic sanctions against Iraq after determining that Saddam Hussein's government had failed to fulfill all its Persian Gulf War cease-fire obligations. On August 8 Lieut. Gen. Hussein Kamel Hassan, one of Hussein's sons-in-law and director of Iraq's Military Industrialization Corporation, defected to Jordan. This prompted the Iraqi government to provide a large amount of additional data to the UN Special Commission. This material and Hassan's revelations showed that Iraq had three separate biological weapons programs and had filled 191 bombs, artillery shells, and missiles with biological agents for possible use in the 1991 war. It had also launched a crash program in 1990 to test a nuclear bomb by April 1991, had produced its own rocket engines for its Scud and al-Hussein ballistic missiles, and was working on a radiological weapon.

      Convinced that Iran was pursuing a program to build nuclear weapons, President Clinton in April imposed a total ban on U.S. trade with Iran. He could not, however, convince Russian President Yeltsin to cancel the deal to sell a nuclear reactor to Iran.

      Despite the efforts of the radical groups Hamas and Hezbollah to disrupt it, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process moved slowly forward. On September 28 the two parties signed an interim agreement in Washington, D.C. One of its terms provided for the withdrawal of the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) from most of the towns and villages of the West Bank by the end of March 1996. The IDF would still be responsible for the external security of the West Bank. Less progress was made between Israel and Syria, although their chiefs of staff met in Washington in June and again in late December. In November, Israel's High Court of Justice ordered the air force to accept women as fighter pilots, overturning a long-standing ban on women in combat roles. In December Yemen and Eritrea clashed over the ownership of a disputed island in the Red Sea.

      On July 1 the U.S. Navy recommissioned the 5th Fleet in the Persian Gulf. In October Bahrain agreed to be host to 18 U.S. warplanes until the end of the year in the absence of a U.S. aircraft carrier in the region, while in November the United Arab Emirates indicated it would allow the equipment for one U.S. armoured brigade to be stored on its territory. Approximately 200 U.S. aircraft were also based in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.

South and Central Asia.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      In troubled Afghanistan the long civil war took a new twist as the Taleban, a movement made up of fundamentalist religious students turned warriors, swept out of the southwest to the very gates of Kabul after first having driven rebel leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar from his headquarters at Charasyab. In mid-March, after a week of heavy fighting, they were pushed out of the capital's suburbs by government forces only to fight their way back later in the year. At the end of October, the northern Afghan warlord 'Abd ar-Rashid Dostam said he was willing to ally his ethnic Uzbek forces with the Taleban.

      Resumption of U.S. arms aid to Pakistan threatened to fuel an arms race on the subcontinent. Congress agreed to permit the delivery of $368 million in embargoed U.S. military equipment sold to Pakistan prior to the imposition of sanctions against Pakistan's nuclear program. The equipment included three P-3C maritime patrol aircraft, Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, howitzers, antitank guided missiles, and Mk 46 torpedoes. Congress specifically excluded the 28 F-16s purchased and paid for by Pakistan. The U.S. tried unsuccessfully to sell the F-16s to a third country and reimburse Pakistan with the proceeds. In January Pakistani and Indian soldiers exchanged fire across the Kashmir border. Although both countries denied it, analysts believed that Pakistan had acquired several M-11 ballistic missiles from China, and India used this rumour to justify its further development of the nuclear-capable Prithvi and Agni missiles. While India and the U.S. signed a defense cooperation document in January, India strengthened its traditional military-procurement ties with Russia.

      A truce between the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam was broken in April when Tamil guerrillas blew up two government navy vessels and then shot down two military transport planes, killing over 100 people. In July government forces launched a major offensive to drive the Tamil Tigers from their strongholds on the Jaffna Peninsula. A second major drive that began in October culminated in the capture of Jaffna by the government forces, but the rebels continued to fight elsewhere.

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Bucking the world-wide trend, defense spending in Asia was generally up. Western analysts continued to argue about the size of China's defense budget, with estimates running from 4 to 20 times the official figure. China figured in two of the three potential flash points in the region: the South China Sea and Taiwan. In January Chinese troops removed Filipino fishermen from Mischief Reef in the disputed Spratly Islands, which prompted reactions from the Philippine navy and air force. Vietnam and Taiwan, two of the other claimants to the islands, also were involved in military incidents in the area. (See The Spat over the Spratlys (Spotlight: The Spat over the Spratlys ).) While China's Pres. Jiang Zemin on January 30 said that his country would not use force against Taiwan, the Chinese test-fired six M-9 and M-11 surface-to-surface missiles into the East China Sea to the north of Taiwan in July during exercises interpreted as an attempt to intimidate Taiwan. During the year China took delivery of three Kilo-class diesel submarines from Russia. On May 30 the Chinese tested their new Dongfeng-31 truck-launched intercontinental ballistic missile, estimated to have an 8,000-km (5,000-mi) range.

      The Korean demilitarized zone remained the region's third potential flash point. For the second year running, the U.S. and South Korea canceled their annual "Team Spirit" joint military exercises as a gesture to North Korea. In October South Korean soldiers killed a North Korean infiltrator and captured another in separate incidents. Russia began to deliver military equipment—including T-80 tanks, BMP-3 armoured infantry fighting vehicles, and antitank missiles—to South Korea in partial repayment of the former Soviet Union's debt to Seoul. The deliveries were to continue for two more years.

      In a Pentagon report issued in February, the U.S. pledged to maintain a force of 100,000 troops in Asia at least through the end of the decade. These included 48,000 in Japan and 37,000 in Korea. The alleged rape of a 12-year-old Okinawan girl by three U.S. servicemen in September sparked a number of protests against the U.S. military presence in Japan, and specifically on Okinawa, where some 28,000 U.S. servicemen were based. U.S. defense officials indicated some of the troops on Okinawa might be moved to other bases in Japan. Late in the year the Japanese National Security Council issued a new Defense Program Outline to replace the one adopted in 1976. It called for cuts in personnel and weapons of roughly 20%. The Air Self-Defense Force would cut its 350 fighters by 10%. The new FSX fighter-bomber made its first flight in October; the joint Japanese-American project was expected to enter serial production in 1996.

      Malaysia received the 18 MiG-29s it had ordered from Russia in 1994. Singapore announced in September that it was purchasing a used submarine from Sweden. Burmese troops gained a major victory against the Karen rebels when they overran the Manerplaw headquarters of the Karen National Union in January. Thailand continued to acquire modern, sophisticated military equipment, receiving the first element of its second squadron of F-16 fighters.

      The U.S., Britain, and France on October 20 announced they would sign the 1985 South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty. China and Russia had already signed.

Caribbean and Latin America.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

      Peru and Ecuador engaged in a monthlong conflict early in the year over an unmarked 77-km (48-mi) stretch of jungle border. The Peruvians officially admitted losing 46 soldiers and several aircraft, and Ecuador reported 30 dead and at least 300 wounded, but unofficial reports placed the casualty toll higher. Despite a peace agreement in February that called for the demilitarization of the area, skirmishes between the two sides continued. The Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path) guerrillas in Peru, dormant for some time, killed 16 government soldiers in a July ambush.

      At the end of March, the U.S.-led occupation force in Haiti turned over the country's security responsibilities to a 6,000-member UN peacekeeping force. Earlier in the year, Haiti's Pres. Jean-Bertrand Aristide had abolished the army. Ministers of defense from 34 nations in the Americas attended the first annual Ministerial of the Americas at Williamsburg, Va., in July. In March Cuba, which had been the last holdout in the region, signed the Treaty of Tlatelolco banning the proliferation of nuclear arms in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Africa South of the Sahara.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World)

      The bloody civil war in Liberia paused in August with a power-sharing agreement between the battling parties but flared again on December 31. At the same time, the four-year rebellion in neighbouring Sierra Leone blazed up again. Civilians were once again the principal victims as fighting broke out between the Rwandan army and Hutu militia infiltrating back into the country from refugee camps in Zaire. Ethnic Tutsi soldiers in Burundi were accused of massacring hundreds of Hutu villagers in late October, and they launched a large offensive against Hutu rebels in December. In Nigeria the military government arrested 29 military officers and civilians in March for plotting a coup. In October the rebel Sudan People's Liberation Front carried out its biggest offensive in several years. The Sudanese government accused Uganda of sending troops and tanks into southern Sudan to help the rebels. Once the pariah of Africa, South Africa embarked upon a profitable campaign to export both its military equipment and its expertise. In October the South African government arrested former defense minister Gen. Magnus Malan and 10 other high-ranking military officers in connection with the slaying of 13 people in Natal in 1987. He was charged with murder on December 1.

New Technology.

      In February Sweden launched a conventionally powered submarine equipped with an air-independent propulsion system. The U.S. Air Force agreed with the Federal Railroad Administration to jointly develop magnetic levitation technologies. The service would use the technology to conduct realistic hypersonic tests of weapons. (DOUGLAS L. CLARKE)

      This updates the article military technology.

▪ 1995

Introduction

      In 1994 dignitaries and old soldiers, sailors, and airmen gathered at World War II battlegrounds from Monte Cassino in Italy to Leyte Gulf in the Philippines to recall the sacrifices of that global conflict. The largest such gathering was at Normandy, France, on June 6 to celebrate the 50th anniversary of D-Day, the Allied invasion of Nazi-occupied Europe. The failure to invite either Russian leaders or veterans to the D-Day ceremonies generated considerable bitterness in Russia.

      On June 18 Berliners paid an emotional farewell to the U.S., British, and French troops who had defended their city during the Cold War. A week later the city held a separate and smaller parade for the departing Russian troops. Russia withdrew its remaining troops from Latvia, Estonia, and Germany on August 31 and from Poland on September 9, marking the end of a historic retreat. In the Middle East, Jordan became the second Arab country—the first was Egypt in 1979—to end its official state of war with Israel.

      Suspicions that North Korea was building nuclear weapons flared when its government refused to allow International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors to monitor the refueling of a five-megawatt research reactor at its Yongbyon facility or inspect two suspected nuclear-waste sites. When the IAEA Board of Governors decided to cut off technical assistance, North Korea announced that it was withdrawing from the IAEA. Tensions were relieved somewhat during former president Jimmy Carter's visit to Pyongyang when North Korean leader Kim Il Sung agreed to freeze his nuclear program if the U.S. would agree to resume the stalled direct talks. The third round of these high-level talks began in Geneva on July 8, the day Kim Il Sung died. On October 21 the two countries signed an agreement under which North Korea would freeze its existing nuclear program, eventually dismantle its existing reactors, accept IAEA inspections, and allow, at an undetermined future date, inspection of the two controversial waste sites. In return the U.S. agreed to arrange for the international financing and supply of two modern nuclear reactors to North Korea. In an October agreement China said that it would accept the Missile Technology Control Regime rules and ban the export of missiles "inherently capable" of a range of 300 km (190 mi) with a payload of at least 500 kg (1,100 lb) in return for the lifting of the 1993 U.S. sanctions against China for the sale of M-11 missiles to Pakistan.

      These positive developments were balanced by troubling indications that the former Soviet Union could become the source of nuclear weapons material sold to the highest bidder. Several incidents of attempted smuggling of nuclear materials were discovered, as when authorities at the Munich, Germany, airport seized 350 g of plutonium and some lithium 6 that had come from Moscow aboard an airliner.

      United Nations forces remained heavily committed in peacekeeping and relief operations in such places as the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. The brutal civil war in Rwanda prompted France to deploy a 2,500-man force in a UN-mandated mercy mission to that country, while the U.S. initiated an airlift to help feed Rwandan refugees.

      Russian troops, sometimes aided by token contributions from other members of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), were involved in peacekeeping and peacemaking operations in Moldova, Georgia, Tajikistan, and Azerbaijan.

      After having repeatedly warned Haiti's military rulers that they had to step down and allow the return of the democratically elected president, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the U.S. mounted an invasion force to remove them from power. Once again, Carter was involved in a last-minute diplomatic solution. The U.S. forces went ashore in Haiti without opposition, and the small Haitian army was quickly disarmed of its heavy weapons.

      Iraq's Pres. Saddam Hussein moved several elite Republican Guard divisions to the border with Kuwait, threatening a replay of the 1991 invasion. U.S. Pres. Bill Clinton quickly responded by deploying air, naval, and ground forces to the Persian Gulf region, and the Iraqi leader promptly backed down and withdrew the divisions.

Arms Control and Disarmament.

      In January Clinton, Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin, and Ukrainian Pres. Leonid Kravchuk signed a trilateral agreement in Moscow on the repatriation to Russia of the strategic nuclear weapons in Ukraine. After turning it down in February, the Ukrainian Rada (parliament) on November 16 agreed to accede to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a nonnuclear state. This removed the last stumbling block to implementing the Strategic Arms Reduction Talks treaties (START I and START II). On December 5, at the Budapest Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE) summit meeting, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine formally acceded to the NPT, and START I entered into force, opening the way for the START II ratification process to proceed. Clinton and Yeltsin had pledged at their September Washington summit meeting that once START II had been ratified, their countries would dismantle their nuclear weapons more quickly than called for under the treaty.

      In January the U.S. agreed to purchase some 500 tons of highly enriched uranium (HEU) from dismantled Russian nuclear weapons over a 20-year period. The HEU would first be diluted in Russia, and the subsequent low-enriched uranium (LEU) would be converted into reactor fuel rods in the United States. Russia also agreed to use some of the LEU to supply fuel rods for Ukrainian atomic power plants.

      Formal negotiations to draft a comprehensive ban on all nuclear weapons tests resumed at the UN Conference on Disarmament in January. Even while declaring its support for such a ban, China conducted two nuclear tests in 1994, on June 10 and October 7. Hopes that the Chemical Weapon Convention eliminating chemical weapons would enter into force on Jan. 13, 1995—the earliest possibility—faded when only 10 of the 157 signatories had ratified the convention by mid-July. The convention would enter into force 180 days after 65 nations had ratified it. At the end of the year, the ratification count stood at 18.

      The second reduction phase of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe treaty ended on November 17. By that date the 30 participants (the members of NATO and the former members of the Warsaw Treaty Organization [WTO], including all the successor states of the U.S.S.R. except the three Baltic Republics) had destroyed 60% of the heavy weapons to be eliminated under the treaty. Russia and Ukraine were not satisfied with a provision of the treaty that placed limits on the numbers of weapons the former Soviet Union could deploy on what once were the northern and southern flanks of the WTO. The Russians argued that the parts of their country affected by these limits had been largely rear support areas of the Soviet Union but were now in Russia's first line of defense. In particular, they pointed to the conflicts in the Caucasus and the potential military threats in the south as justifications for wishing to have more heavy equipment than the treaty would allow in the Northern Caucasus military district. Most of the other signatories reacted coolly to these arguments, and by year's end the issue had not been resolved.

      In other arms control developments, the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM), created in 1949 to prevent transfer of militarily useful technology to the communist world, was disbanded at a March 28-31 meeting in The Hague. The UN issued its second annual Register of Conventional Arms report, which aimed to contribute to transparency in world armaments by listing the imports and exports of major weaponry as reported by member governments. Although fewer than half of the UN members provided data, the report was believed to cover over 90% of the 1993 arms transfers in the seven categories covered by the register. Significant nonparticipants were Iran, North Korea, and Syria. United States efforts to develop the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and other similar defenses against tactical ballistic missiles provoked a debate over the 1972 antiballistic missile treaty, with some arms control advocates arguing that THAAD would violate the treaty. U.S. and Russian negotiators on the Standing Consultative Commission tried unsuccessfully to reach agreement on a definition of antitactical ballistic missiles and their interceptors that could be accommodated within the treaty. At their September summit Presidents Clinton and Yeltsin agreed that the U.S. and Russia would conduct a joint exercise of theatre missile defenses and early warning. In his September 26 address to the UN General Assembly, Clinton called for a land mine control regime and the eventual elimination of antipersonnel land mines.

United States.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The deployment of some 15,000 troops and additional ships and aircraft to the Persian Gulf in response to Iraq's provocative moves against Kuwait and the deployment of 15,000 troops to Haiti in connection with the restoration to power of President Aristide were the major military events of the year for the United States. While it turned out that neither action was to involve combat operations, these simultaneous crises provoked a debate as to whether the country's armed forces could fight and win two major regional conflicts at nearly the same time, the assumption on which the administration's defense policy was based.

      The Clinton administration's "don't ask, don't tell, don't pursue" policy on homosexuals in the military went into effect on February 28, but the "don't tell" element did not fare well in the courts. A federal district court ruled that Col. Margarethe Cammermeyer, a declared lesbian, had to be reinstated as the chief nurse in the Washington state National Guard, and a federal appeals court decided that an admittedly gay sailor, Keith Meinhold, had to be reinstated in the navy. The 1991 "Tailhook affair" continued to have reverberations in 1994. While the navy and the Marine Corps, owing to a lack of evidence, dropped their efforts to court-martial officers accused of sexual assaults at the aviator's convention, a navy judge ruled that the chief of naval operations, Adm. Frank B. Kelso II, had misrepresented his role in the affair. Kelso denied the charge but then retired two months early; he was allowed to keep his four-star rank only after a heated Senate debate. Lieut. Paula Coughlin, who made the first complaints about the alleged misconduct at the convention, resigned from the navy in May. In October she was awarded $6.7 million in her lawsuit against the hotel that served as host for the convention. Lieut. Kara S. Hultgreen, the navy's first woman F-14 fighter pilot, was killed on October 25 when her jet crashed at sea during carrier operations.

      President Clinton chose the deputy secretary of defense, William Perry, as secretary of defense. Marine Corps Lieut. Gen. John J. Sheehan was tapped to head the reshaped U.S. Atlantic Command (USACOM). The operation in Haiti was the first large-scale test of that command's new "adaptive joint force packaging" concept.

      On May 13 President Clinton signed a directive on reforming multilateral peace operations. It established criteria for determining when the U.S. would vote for or participate in peacekeeping operations and called for what seemed to be the contradictory goals of enhancing and improving the UN's peacekeeping capabilities while cutting their cost. In addition to the operations in Haiti and the Persian Gulf, the U.S. continued to participate in the NATO effort to support the UN in former Yugoslavia. All U.S. forces had been withdrawn from Somalia by the end of March, and the short Rwandan relief effort ended in September. During their participation in Somalia, 30 U.S. service personnel were killed in combat and 175 wounded. On April 14, during missions to enforce the no-fly zone over the Kurdish area of northern Iraq, two U.S. Air Force F-15s shot down two army UH-60 helicopters after mistaking them for Iraqis; 26 international personnel were killed.

      The 10-month-long Nuclear Policy Review, completed in September, detailed a number of unilateral reductions in both strategic and tactical nuclear forces to take place over the next seven years, although the cuts were more timid than many defense experts had expected. It was decided to retain 500 silo-based single-warhead Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) in three locations. Air force B-1B bombers would no longer have a nuclear delivery capability. The chief role for the 20 planned B-2 bombers, and for the 66 B-52H bombers the air force planned to keep, would be to deliver conventional weapons, but these aircraft would retain a nuclear delivery capability. Instead of the previously planned 18 Trident ballistic missile submarines, the force would be capped at 14, each to be armed with 24 D-5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Attack submarines would continue to be armed with Tomahawk nuclear cruise missiles, but the technical capability to carry nuclear weapons would be removed from all navy surface vessels and carrierborne aircraft.

      U.S. defense spending for fiscal 1994 was $261.7 billion. The $263.8 billion fiscal 1995 defense authorization bill was signed by Clinton in September. It was characterized by a tendency to draw out expensive new weapons programs rather than cancel them and included money to build a new aircraft carrier, three Arleigh Burke guided-missile destroyers, six C-17 cargo aircraft, and 24 navy FA-18C and FA-18D fighter-attack aircraft. Continued research-and-development funding was provided for the air force's F-22 fighter, a new attack submarine, the Marine Corps's controversial V-22 tilt-rotor aircraft, and the army's Comanche helicopter. Against the wishes of the Defense Department, Congress also inserted money to reactivate three SR-71 spy planes. In December Clinton announced that $25 billion would be added to the defense budget through 2001, and the Pentagon said that it would cut $7.7 billion in new weapons programs—both with an eye to redirecting funds to improve the combat readiness of U.S. forces.

      With the government buying less military hardware in the post-Cold War era, many defense contractors looked to mergers to remain healthy. Northrop Corp. and Grumman merged in March and then acquired Vought Aircraft Co. in September. In August Lockheed Corp., already the world's largest defense contractor, and fourth-ranked Martin Marietta Corp. announced that they planned to merge.

NATO.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The 16 NATO heads of state met in January in Brussels, where they formally invited the former members of the Warsaw Pact and the successor states of the Soviet Union to join with them in a "Partnership for Peace" (PfP). This program allowed the participating states to develop cooperative military relations with NATO, particularly in the area of joint planning and training for peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. Although falling far short of full or even associate membership in NATO, the alliance agreed to consult with any PfP participant if that state perceived a direct threat to its territorial integrity, political independence, or security. By the end of the year, Russia and all the other successor states of the Soviet Union except Belarus and Tajikistan had joined it, as had all the former Warsaw Pact members in Eastern Europe, including Albania. Members of the CSCE were also eligible for membership, and Finland, Slovenia, and Sweden joined. The first peacekeeping field exercises were held in Poland in September, and that same month ships from Lithuania, Poland, Russia, and Sweden joined those from 10 NATO nations in a joint naval exercise in the North Sea. Also in September, 250 American and 250 Russian troops took part in a joint peacekeeping exercise at the Totsk training ground in Russia's Urals region under a bilateral program of military cooperation.

      Manfred Wörner, NATO's secretary-general since 1988, died on August 13. (See OBITUARIES (Worner, Manfred ).) He was succeeded in that post by Belgian Foreign Minister Willy Claes. (See . (Claes, Willy ))

      NATO continued to provide military support to the UN Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in former Yugoslavia. On February 28, NATO fighters shot down four Serbian jets violating the UN "no-fly" zone in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the first time forces under NATO command had ever been used in combat. On April 10 and 11, NATO aircraft provided close air support for UNPROFOR military observers under attack in the town of Gorazde. Additional support strikes occurred in August and September. Almost 4,500 personnel from 12 nations and nearly 170 aircraft participated in this NATO effort to enforce the "no-fly" zone, support UNPROFOR, and protect the UN-designated safe areas in Bosnia. The joint NATO-Western European Union (WEU) maritime Operation Sharp Guard continued to prevent all unauthorized shipping from entering the territorial waters of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) or seaborne arms shipments from entering any state in former Yugoslavia. In July a new NATO command structure was introduced that eliminated the Allied Command Channel and left only two major military commands: Allied Command Europe and Allied Command Atlantic.

      Germany, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom continued with development of the Eurofighter 2000, which had its first flight on March 24. Dogged by political and financial problems throughout its nine-year history, the program saw its costs continue to rise as the participating countries reduced or delayed their aircraft orders.

United Kingdom.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Field Marshal Sir Peter Inge, who had headed the army, was appointed chief of the defense staff in March. The Royal Navy's first Trident submarine, HMS Vanguard, successfully fired an unarmed Trident missile in May, confirming that it was close to operational status. The four-year "Options for Change" program was completed in September. During this period the military strength of the armed forces had dropped from 306,000 to 254,000. In July the government announced the results of the seven-month Defence Costs Study. Also known as "Front Line First," it mandated a further manpower reduction of 11,600 military and 7,100 civil service jobs.

      The unexpected peace initiatives in Northern Ireland raised the possibility that the British might be able to reduce their 16,500-man military presence in the troubled province, but no immediate cuts were in the offing. The army and the Royal Air Force continued to maintain more than 38,000 troops in Germany, while the army had some 3,700 personnel, under the command of Gen. Michael Rose (see BIOGRAPHIES (Rose, Sir Michael )), with UNPROFOR in Bosnia. Small British military contingents remained deployed in a number of other locations throughout the world, from Hong Kong to the Falkland Islands. The United Kingdom ended its military presence in Belize in 1994, withdrawing its 600-strong force and announced that its small naval base in Bermuda would close in 1995.

France.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) A defense White Paper published in February examined particularly France's ability to project military power overseas and established a requirement for the capability quickly to deploy up to two combat divisions and six fighter squadrons as far as 7,000 km (4,375 mi). The White Paper stated that France would maintain defense spending at current levels. In April, however, the six-year military spending program called for a 0.5% annual increase in spending beyond the rate of inflation. It also called for a slight shift in emphasis from nuclear to conventional programs. The M-5 SLBM program was endorsed, but its service entry date was postponed from 2005 to 2010. In May Pres. François Mitterrand revealed that France had approximately 500 nuclear warheads. On May 7 the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle was "inaugurated," as the way in which the ship had been built prevented a traditional launching. The first nuclear-powered surface warship ever built in Western Europe, the De Gaulle was due to enter service in 1999.

      A 15,000-strong armoured division was sent to Germany as part of the WEU's Eurocorps, and France maintained more than 30,000 military personnel in its colonies and former dependencies throughout the world, particularly in Africa. The French also remained major contributors to the UN forces in former Yugoslavia and in the NATO units supporting them. Cooperation between French and NATO military authorities was at the highest level since France withdrew from NATO's unified military structure in 1966.

Germany.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) In July the Federal Constitutional Court ruled that the country's basic law did not preclude German military forces from operating outside the NATO area, provided that the Bundestag (parliament) approved each such operation. The army completed its reorganization and now was made up of three corps headquarters—one of which was combined German-Dutch—with eight subordinate divisions. The division headquarters doubled as military district commands. An airborne division was under Army Headquarters command. The army's tank inventory dropped from 4,778 in 1993 to 2,855 in 1994 through the destruction of tanks once held by the East German army and through the transfer of equipment to other NATO members, particularly Turkey and Greece. This "cascading" of equipment in excess of its CFE limits had made Germany the second largest exporter of conventional weapons in 1993, and exports continued into 1994. Germany halted its arms transfers to Turkey on May 7 after charges were made that Turkey was breaking a pledge not to use German-supplied equipment in its fight against rebel Kurds. Shipments resumed one month later after no proof was evinced to support the charges.

Turkey.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) After the United States, Turkey fielded the largest armed forces in NATO, with 503,800 personnel under arms. This number would rise as the government extended the length of conscription service by five months to support army operations against the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) in the eastern part of the country. As Turkey was eager to modernize its military equipment, the Defense Ministry escaped most of the spending cuts imposed by the government in its austerity program, but inflation and currency devaluation forced the deferment of several procurement programs, such as the purchase of 50 Black Hawk helicopters. In 1993 Turkey became the first NATO country to purchase arms from Russia, and this relationship continued in 1994. Political instability in Russia and the ethnic conflicts in the Caucasus also threatened its security, however, and Turkey was one of the most vigorous opponents of Russia's efforts to alter the CFE treaty to permit more Russian forces near the Turkish border. An October dispute with Greece over the Aegean Sea once again illuminated the fragile cohesion on NATO's southern flank.

Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Russian efforts to transform the CIS into one "strategic space" along the lines of the U.S.S.R. met with little success. The attempt to create CIS joint armed forces proved a total failure, and in June the headquarters in Moscow was turned into a coordination cell. The Collective Security Treaty—not signed by all the members of the CIS—became a vehicle to legitimize Russian peacekeeping operations in Tajikistan and the Caucasus. On October 21 Moldova and Russia signed an agreement calling for the withdrawal of the Russian 14th Army from Moldova within three years. Ukraine and Russia remained unable to agree how to divide the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet, and the issue was complicated by the political unrest in the Crimea, where the bulk of the fleet was based.

      The year was a difficult one for the Russian armed forces. Many in it felt humiliated by what they saw as a precipitous withdrawal from Eastern Europe and the Baltic States, with security and social considerations sacrificed to political expediency. Finding adequate housing for the returning officers became a top priority. By Russian accounts the strength of the armed forces fell from 2.2 million to 1.9 million during the year, although many foreign analysts suggested the real strength was far less. In October President Yeltsin issued a decree calling for a further reduction to 1.7 million by the end of 1995.

      In December Russian troops invaded the republic of Chechnya in the northern Caucasus region to put down the republic's self-proclaimed independence. The Chechen capital, Grozny, was bombed and shelled, and at year's end pitched ground battles were reported. Russian Defense Minister Gen. Pavel Grachev was given direct responsibility for operations against the breakaway republic and its president, Dzhokhar Dudayev (see BIOGRAPHIES (Dudayev, Dzhokhar )), himself a former Soviet air force general.

      The military's financial problems dealt a severe blow to Russia's defense industry. With the Ministry of Defense unable to pay for many weapons ordered and already built, plant after plant furloughed workers without pay. Many also tried to replace domestic customers with foreign ones, with limited success. An official of the state-owned arms-exporting company indicated in November, however, that Russia would sell $4 billion worth of arms in 1994, nearly double the previous year's sales. Even greater profits were forecast once international sanctions had been removed from some of the Soviet Union's traditional overseas customers, such as Iraq and Libya.

      During the year Ukraine transferred 180 strategic nuclear warheads to Russia and in return received fuel rods for its nuclear power plants. Ukrainian officials also confirmed that 30 of the 46 SS-24 ICBM in Ukraine had been disarmed, although Russian military authorities expressed concern that the nuclear weapons still in Ukraine were not being properly maintained. Pres. Leonid Kuchma (see BIOGRAPHIES (Kuchma, Leonid Danylovych )) appointed a civilian, Valery Shmarov, as defense minister. Belarus' deputy foreign minister said in January that 34 of the 81 SS-25 mobile strategic missiles once deployed in Belarus had been returned to Russia. Other officials later said that five of the eight Russian strategic missile regiments in the country would be gone by the end of the year.

      With all the various military groups active in the republics of the Transcaucasus, it was difficult to track all the former Soviet military equipment, complicating the task of those monitoring the CFE treaty reductions. Russian peacekeeping forces were deployed to the rebel Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions of Georgia and to Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. The CSCE's "Minsk Group" sought to mediate the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, and President Yeltsin served as host for a meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in September. While Russia wished to build up the CSCE as an alternative to NATO, the Russians balked at the CSCE efforts in Nagorno-Karabakh, especially when Turkey showed itself eager and willing to contribute troops. At an October CSCE meeting in Vienna, Russia suggested that the CSCE should abdicate to Russia the responsibility for settling the conflict. In other regional developments, the Russian defense minister announced that Russia would establish three permanent military bases in Georgia, two in Armenia, and one at the ballistic-missile early-warning radar site in Azerbaijan. Late in the year a squadron of Russian jet fighters was deployed to Armenia to defend Armenian airspace.

      Russia maintained the 8,500-strong 201st motorized rifle division in Tajikistan to prop up the neocommunist government, while Russian border troops guarded the Tajik-Afghan border. The 201st comprised virtually all of the CIS Collective Peacekeeping Forces in Tajikistan, the only operational command that remained in what were to have been the CIS joint armed forces. Lieut. Gen. Aleksandr Lebed, the outspoken commander of the Russian 14th Army in Moldova, turned down this command in Tajikistan in August when Moscow tried to ease him out of his Moldovan post. A flareup of fighting between the Tajik government and opposition forces in July made many fear a resumption of the 1992 civil war. Iran, Russia, and the UN brokered a temporary cease-fire in September, and 11 UN observers were sent to monitor it. The cease-fire was extended until Jan. 6, 1995, and the two groups exchanged some prisoners.

      Turkmenistan's Pres. Saparmuryad Niyazov reminded the Military Council in January that Russia had strategic military interests in Turkmenistan that had to be respected. He indicated that the reorganization of the country's armed forces would not be completed until 1999, when they would number 37,000 men. During 1994 nearly all the officers in the Turkmen armed forces were Russian, and they were not required to take an oath of allegiance to Turkmenistan. The Russian arms-exporting company Rosvooruzheniya agreed to supply military equipment in return for natural gas.

      The last of the 40 strategic bombers that had been stationed in Kazakhstan flew to Russia in February. In March Pres. Nursultan Nazarbayev said that 12 of the 104 SS-18 ICBM stationed in Kazakhstan had been returned to Russia, although he indicated the warheads might still be in the country. That same month he signed an accord with Yeltsin giving Russia jurisdiction over the nuclear weapons in Kazakhstan. The Russians agreed to remove all the nuclear warheads within 18 months and destroy all the missiles and silos within three years. In November it was revealed that the U.S. had discovered and later negotiated the removal to the U.S. of a large cache of bomb-grade plutonium at Ust-Kamenogorsk. Russia and Kazakhstan also negotiated an agreement leasing the Baikonur cosmodrome to the Russian Space Forces for 20 years at a cost of $115 million per year. In October experts from 24 countries and several international organizations met in Almaty, Kazakhstan, to prepare for a Conference on Security and Measures of Confidence in Asia, a concept first proposed by Nazarbayev at the UN General Assembly in October 1992 and patterned on the CSCE.

The Rest of Europe.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The war in Bosnia and Herzegovina continued sporadically throughout the year, with no permanent settlement in sight. The commander of the UN forces successfully negotiated a cease-fire around the capital, Sarajevo, in February coincident with the establishment by NATO of a heavy-weapons exclusion zone around the beleaguered city. Muslim and Bosnian Croat forces also agreed to a cease-fire in Mostar on March 18 as part of a broader accord calling for an eventual confederation with Croatia. With his people suffering from the UN embargo, Serbian Pres. Slobodan Milosevic stopped supporting the Bosnian Serbs in early August. The U.S. wished to see the UN arms embargo lifted for the Bosnian Muslims and in mid-November announced that it would act unilaterally. NATO also wished to loosen the rules of engagement and be given more flexibility in choosing targets when requested to assist UN forces. There was a "dual key" arrangement whereby each NATO strike had to be approved by both the UN and NATO authorities. In late October Bosnian government forces, after having been on the defensive for most of the war, won a decisive victory over the Bosnian Serbs with an offensive in the Bihac region. Combined Bosnian Serb and Bosnian Croat forces also made significant gains in the south. By late November, however, the Serbs had regained much lost ground; they surrounded Bihac and cut the city off from UN and NATO operations. Fighting eased somewhat in Croatia during the year, but the conflict was not resolved. A cease-fire came into effect on April 4, with UN troops separating the two sides. The Croatian parliament would extend the mandate for the UNPROFOR only until Jan. 6, 1995. There were signs that Milosevic might drop his support for the Serbs in the breakaway Croatian district of Krajina, as he had for the Bosnian Serbs.

      In Poland Pres. Lech Walesa, the government, and the military were embroiled in a power struggle over control of the armed forces. Walesa, with support from many senior uniformed officers, wanted the chief of staff to report directly to the president rather than the minister of defense. In October Walesa asked Defense Minister Piotr Kolodziejczyk to resign, but the minister, with support from Prime Minister Waldemar Pawlak, held on until mid-November before succumbing. There was modest military cooperation between the four countries of the "Visegrad Group"—the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia—but the cohesion of this fragile regional grouping was put to a severe test in January when the Czech minister of defense refused to attend a meeting to coordinate the group's efforts to join NATO. All four countries lacked the resources to modernize their armed forces and to make them compatible with NATO forces. All but Hungary had important but troubled defense industries, which they were trying to protect by seeking foreign customers. By the end of the year, the Hungarian air force had completed its program to install U.S.-built Identification-Friend-or-Foe (IFF) equipment in 109 of its aircraft, allowing them to be recognized by NATO air defense systems.

      Neutrality had become less of an attractive option for some of Europe's traditionally neutral states after the Cold War. Sweden, Finland, and Austria were slated to join the European Union in 1995 (in some cases with special provisions to preserve some aspects of neutrality), while Sweden and Finland joined NATO's Partnership for Peace in 1994. Swedish naval forces participated in the PfP exercise Cooperative Venture 94 in September and October, the first time in modern history Sweden had taken part in joint military maneuvers other than peacekeeping outside its territory.

Middle East.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) In the volatile Middle East, 1994 brought a bitter civil war, the threat of another Gulf war, and encouraging progress toward Arab-Israeli peace. The shaky four-year old union of North and South Yemen broke apart in April when Northern units of the largely unintegrated armed forces conducted a preemptive strike on Southern troops garrisoned in the North. The struggle quickly escalated into a full-scale civil war with both sides using all the weapons at their disposal, including Scud surface-to-surface missiles. The North captured the Southern capital, Aden, on July 7, and the Southern leadership fled the country.

      In June the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) overseeing the destruction of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction announced that all its chemical weapons had been destroyed. In the two-year operation some 100 experts from 23 countries had destroyed 480,000 litres (130,000 gal) of chemical agent and 28,000 chemical munitions. UNSCOM also reported progress in constructing the long-term monitoring system that would verify Iraq's compliance with the ban on weapons of mass destruction and ballistic missiles. The Security Council, however, was not satisfied that Iraq was fully complying with all the other conditions called for in its resolutions of 1991 and repeatedly renewed the economic sanctions against Iraq.

      In what was apparently a misguided effort to put pressure on the Security Council to lift these sanctions, Saddam Hussein, who had never recognized the independence of Kuwait or agreed on the border line, in early October sent 20,000 of his elite Republican Guards to join some 45,000 regular army troops near the Kuwaiti border. Clinton responded by immediately ordering troops, planes, and ships to the Gulf. The full-scale U.S. reinforcement was halted as Iraq quickly withdrew the two Republican Guards divisions well north of the border, but 12,000 U.S. troops remained in the region until the end of the year. The Iraqi feint prompted several Gulf states to agree to a long-standing U.S. request to station more military equipment in the region. Kuwait agreed to allow 24 A-10 attack aircraft as well as the equipment to support a full brigade to be permanently stationed on its territory. Equipment for a second brigade would be positioned in Qatar.

      These October events sparked a critical reassessment of the 1991 Gulf war in the U.S., with many repeating earlier charges that the 100-hour-long ground phase had ended too soon, allowing far more Republican Guards to escape with their equipment than had been believed at the time. The greater regret was that the war had not toppled Saddam Hussein.

      In May Israel turned control of Jericho and the Gaza Strip over to Yasir Arafat's Palestine Liberation Organization in accordance with the agreement reached in Washington the previous year. Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and King Hussein of Jordan met on July 25 in Washington, where they signed a declaration that the state of war between their two countries was over. On October 26, at a desolate border outpost called Arava Crossing, Israel and Jordan signed a formal peace treaty.

South and Central Asia.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Afghanistan remained in a state of factionalism and near anarchy. In January the militia of Gen. 'Abd ar-Rashid Dostam, in alliance with Prime Minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, attacked and captured most of Kabul, only to be driven out of the capital in late June by forces loyal to Pres. Burhanuddin Rabbani. The bitter civil war in Sri Lanka showed no signs of being over. Myanmar (Burma) seemed to come out of its shell somewhat, acquiring jet fighters and ground-attack aircraft from China. The main strategic concern in the region, however, was the uneasy relationship between India and Pakistan. In February the U.S. administration repeated its belief that both countries could assemble a limited number of nuclear weapons in a relatively short time. Both possessed the means to deliver nuclear weapons as well. In addition to its Mirage attack aircraft, Pakistan deployed 18 Hatf-I short-range ballistic missiles. India had a number of different types of ballistic missiles. In February it conducted a successful test of the Agni-III intermediate-range ballistic missile. Russia agreed to supply India with cryogenic rocket engines for its space program but without transferring the related technology. In 1993 the U.S. had put pressure on Russia to block a similar deal, arguing that the technology transfer would violate the Missile Technology Control Regime. In addition, Russian companies signed contracts to modernize the Indian air force's large MiG-21 fleet, and the Indian defense minister made several shopping trips to Russia, looking at tanks, aircraft, and even one of Russia's "aircraft-carrying cruisers."

East and Southeast Asia, Oceania.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Despite continued concerns about China's human rights record, the Clinton administration decided to resume military contacts with China, which had been suspended after 1989. Sino-U.S. arms control talks were also resumed after a six-year hiatus. The current series of nuclear tests was believed to be connected with the development of warheads for two new ballistic missiles, and the Chinese indicated that they would be willing to join a comprehensive nuclear test ban once these tests had been completed. China pressed its claim to a number of disputed islands in the South China Sea and in May launched the first of a new class of indigenously designed diesel-electric submarines.

      The Korean peninsula remained a potential trouble spot. Following the breakdown in talks between North and South Korea in March, President Clinton announced that Patriot missiles would be deployed with U.S. forces in South Korea. Three Patriot batteries arrived by ship on April 18. Concerns about North Korea's nuclear weapons program eased following the October agreement between the U.S. and North Korea on freezing the program. As a result, the U.S. and South Korea canceled their annual "Team Spirit" joint military exercises. The North Korean conventional threat remained, however. The North's military was the fifth largest in the world, and two-thirds of its ground forces were deployed within about 100 km (60 mi) of the demilitarized zone dividing North from South Korea. An unarmed U.S. reconnaissance helicopter strayed into North Korea and was shot down on December 17, killing one of the pilots. North Korea elected to make it an incident, extracting a confession of wrongdoing from Bobby Hall, the surviving pilot, before releasing him on December 30.

      Japan and Russia came no closer to resolving their dispute over the four small islands (one a group of islets) in the southern Kuril chain seized by Russia in the last week of World War II but claimed by Japan. Russian border forces fired on several Japanese fishing boats caught in waters around these disputed islands, causing some deaths, but the matter never escalated into a military confrontation. In a rare deployment of troops overseas, the first not made under a UN umbrella, Japan sent 260 soldiers to Zaire in September on a humanitarian mission to help Rwandan refugees, only to withdraw them in December.

      Although one-third smaller than in the previous year, Vietnam's 572,000-strong armed forces remained larger than the militaries of Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore combined. Russia maintained a military toe-hold in Southeast Asia with a small detachment at the former U.S. base at Cam Ranh Bay, Vietnam. Vietnamese-U.S. relations were the warmest in decades as the Vietnamese cooperated in trying to determine the fate of American servicemen missing in action following the Vietnam War, and President Clinton lifted the U.S. trade embargo in February. After nearly a year's negotiations, Malaysia finalized a deal to buy 18 MiG-29 jet fighters from Russia on June 7. The first aircraft was to be delivered in April 1995. The agreement represented a significant breakthrough for Russia's troubled defense industry and marked its first entry into the rapidly growing Southeast Asian arms market. In October Malaysia inaugurated a new rapid deployment force built around the 10th Parachute Brigade.

      The Royal Cambodian Army had much success against the Khmer Rouge in an offensive that began in January. On March 25 the government captured the rebel stronghold at Pailin, and in October its troops overran a redoubt at Phnom Vour that had been under Khmer Rouge control since 1969. Three Western hostages kidnapped by the Khmer Rouge in July were executed during the battle for Phnom Vour.

      The U.S. restored some of the security ties with New Zealand that had been curbed in 1987 in retaliation for New Zealand's policy of denying port access to nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed ships. The U.S. did not resume its defense obligations to New Zealand contained in the ANZUS treaty, however.

Caribbean and Latin America.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The U.S.-led multinational occupation of Haiti that began on September 19 was the most notable event in the Caribbean region in 1994. The leaders of the military junta that had ousted President Aristide were allowed to leave the country. The Haitian police force virtually evaporated, and the U.S. troops found it necessary to assume many police functions that they had expected to avoid. They hoped to turn over the Haitian operation to a 6,000-member UN Mission in Haiti early in 1995.

      Cuba cut its armed forces in half as its economy continued to disintegrate. The U.S. Navy's base at Guantánamo Bay was used to house Haitian and Cuban boat people who had been picked up by U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships as they tried to sail to Florida. Russia renewed a leasing agreement for the electronic intelligence-gathering station at Lourdes, near Havana. Cuba was the last significant holdout to the Treaty of Tlatelolco establishing a nuclear-weapons-free zone in Latin American and the Caribbean after Argentina, Brazil, and Chile formally ratified the treaty in early 1994. The Cubans announced that they would sign the treaty but with a reservation that they might later withdraw depending on future U.S. policy regarding Guantánamo Bay.

      The armed forces of the region remained heavily involved in internal security operations as guerrilla and criminal activity continued to plague Central America, Colombia, and Peru. In Mexico the army was called out to battle an uprising in the southern province of Chiapas by the mainly indigenous Zapatista National Liberation Army.

Africa South of the Sahara.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For Approximate Strengths of Regular Armed Forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The brutal civil war in Rwanda was the most terrible of the troubles visiting the length and breadth of Africa. An August 1993 peace agreement had halted the struggle between the mainly Tutsi Rwandan Patriotic Front (FPR) and the Hutu-led government, but fighting resumed on April 6 after the presidents of Rwanda and Burundi were killed when their plane was shot down over Kigali, the Rwandan capital. The FPR quickly advanced on the capital, but the struggle degenerated into an unprecedented ethnic bloodbath between Hutu and Tutsi in which one million or more unarmed men, women, and children were slain. About two million more fled the country, overwhelming the resources of relief organizations and neighbouring Burundi, Tanzania, and Zaire. On July 4 the FPR seized most of the capital, and two weeks later it declared victory. Many units of the former government's army, however, with their weapons, remained intact in refugee camps outside Rwanda and threatened to renew the conflict.

      Internal armed struggles of varying intensities continued in Djibouti, The Gambia, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Somalia, and The Sudan. The UN peacekeeping effort in Somalia began to wind down toward an ambiguous ending. In February the UN Security Council voted to reduce the force and to withdraw it entirely by the end of March 1995. The UN forces, which numbered around 15,000 at the year's end, no longer sought to disarm the contending factions. Angolan Pres. José Eduardo dos Santos and National Union for the Total Independence of Angola leader Jonas Savimbi initialed a peace accord in mid-November, providing some hope of ending nearly two decades of civil war.

      Another bright spot in the region was South Africa. The republic's defense forces expelled a force of several thousand armed white right-wing extremists from Bophuthatswana in March, when the president of that homeland was deposed, and restored a degree of order in KwaZulu, where Pres. F.W. De Klerk declared a state of emergency in the same month. Integration of the South African defense forces and the armed wing of the African National Congress (ANC)—called Spear of the Nation—had begun even before the April elections, which swept the ANC to power. Pres. Nelson Mandela chose Joe Modise, the former commander of Spear of the Nation, as his first minister of defense.

New Technology.

      In January Israeli companies introduced Piano, a missile-warning system employing passive, electro-optic technology. The U.S. Army conducted a two-week-long Advanced Warfighting Experiment in April, testing an all-digitized combine-arms task force. More than 100 vehicles and aircraft were equipped with digital capability to relay commands and reports on the battlefield situation throughout the force. Another experiment, involving an entire brigade, was planned for 1997. In November a Russian company offered for international sale two air-defense systems supposedly able to detect aircraft and missiles employing radar-evading stealth technology. The radars operated in the very high-frequency band, a radar technology largely abandoned in the West following World War II, when higher frequencies became available.

      (DOUGLAS L. CLARKE)

      This updates the article military technology.

▪ 1994

Introduction

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).)

       UN Peacekeeping Operations Active in 1993, Table Countries Contributing the Largest Numbers of Troops to UN Peacekeeping Missions in 1993, TableMilitary and defense topics of special importance in 1993 included the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, the breakup of the massive military machine of the former Soviet Union, and the expansion of United Nations peacekeeping operations. (For lists of active peacekeeping missions and countries contributing troops, see Table I (UN Peacekeeping Operations Active in 1993, Table) and Table II (Countries Contributing the Largest Numbers of Troops to UN Peacekeeping Missions in 1993, Table).)

Proliferation.

      The spread of weapons of mass destruction and the systems to deliver such weapons, especially shorter-range Theater Ballistic Missiles (TBM), was widely discussed in 1993. The threat was highlighted by the tests in North Korea of Rodong-1 TBM, which were capable of delivering warheads to South Korea and Japan, plus that country's possible imminent acquisition of nuclear weapons. North Korea, one of the few surviving communist dictatorships, had 1,127,000 military personnel, with an army of 1 million, with 3,700 battle tanks (700 more than previous estimates) and 2,500 armed personnel carriers (APC). The air force of 82,000 had 730 combat aircraft, mostly older Chinese and Russian types; the navy had 45,000 personnel.

      Because of this large force poised to attack South Korea—which had happened once before—successive U.S. administrations had added a nuclear deterrent by declaring that the U.S. would, if necessary, use tactical nuclear weapons to halt a North Korean attack. North Korean Pres. Kim Il Sung, however, appeared to believe that this threat might be foiled if his country could build nuclear weapons and TBM to deliver them. In 1993 North Korea conducted repeated tests of its TBM. Moreover, by the end of the year some military analysts feared that they had built a few nuclear weapons, perhaps as many as three (although other observers were skeptical that North Korea could have produced enough plutonium to make a bomb). Suspicions flared when the Pyongyang government refused to allow the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to inspect two undeclared nuclear waste dumps near its Yongbyon "radiochemical laboratory."

      There were other concerns as well. Pyongyang was exporting TBM to other countries, including Iran, and some 15-20 other countries were known to be interested in acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Concern in the United States about proliferation was so great that U.S. Secretary of Defense Les Aspin announced a major new Counterproliferation Defense Initiative on December 7. The plan suggested opposing these threats by developing improved defenses against TBM, such as upgrades to the U.S. land-based Patriot antitactical ballistic missile (ATBM) system.

      On March 24 Prime Minister F.W. de Klerk revealed that South Africa had manufactured six nuclear weapons between 1974 and 1990 but that all six had been dismantled in 1990-91. South Africa thus became the first country to manufacture and then give up nuclear weapons. China conducted a nuclear test in early October, ignoring calls for a moratorium on tests and raising the possibility of renewed testing by other nuclear nations. Some progress was registered during the year as well in the area of eliminating chemical weapons. Representatives of 130 nations met in Paris in January to sign a treaty calling for the destruction within 10 years of stockpiles and factories to produce chemical weapons. It was the first international agreement to ban an entire class of weapons.

Arms Control after the Soviet Breakup.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Proliferation of a different sort was taking place in the former Soviet Union, which dissolved in December 1991 to be replaced by 15 independent states, 4 of which—Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan—retained nuclear weapons on their territories. During 1993 these new states were in the process of taking over physical control of the nuclear and conventional forces.

      The U.S.-Soviet arms-control negotiations had been replaced by negotiations between the U.S. and Russia, plus Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Two U.S.-Soviet arms-control agreements had recently been concluded: the formal July 31, 1991, Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) and an informal agreement on reciprocal nuclear force reductions, START II. Cuts would be made in two stages. In the first, to be completed by 1999, strategic forces would be reduced to an overall total of 3,800-4,250 warheads, of which only 1,200 warheads could be multiple independently targeted reentry vehicle (MIRV) on intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and 2,160 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) warheads. In stage two, to be completed by 2000-2003, strategic forces would be reduced to an overall total of 3,000-3,500 warheads. All MIRV on ICBM would be eliminated and a maximum of 1,750 SLBM allowed. All nuclear weapons would be withdrawn from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. The agreed START II cuts would eliminate some 70% of pre-START nuclear warheads, going much further than START I, which had cut U.S. and Soviet warheads by about 25% to 30%. On December 8 at Whiteman Air Force Base, Missouri, the U.S. destroyed the first of the 500 underground missile silos to be eliminated under START. Also in early December, the U.S. proposed to Russia that the two nuclear powers target their missiles away from each other's territory.

      Russia remained the largest single military power in Europe, but its future defense policy and the degree of central control over the military forces were uncertain. Russian troops to a greater or lesser extent were involved militarily in Moldova, Abkhazia, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Tajikistan. Aggressive statements by Foreign Ministry officials and the startling showing of the jingoistic Vladimir Zhirinovsky in the December elections added to the nervousness of Russia's neighbours.

      The Russian Strategic Deterrent Forces embraced the rocket, naval, and aviation forces. The 144,000 troops and modern ICBM systems of the Strategic Rocket Forces included 92 rail-mobile SS-24, 260 road-mobile SS-25 (plus 80 originally deployed in Belarus), and 198 SS-18 heavy ICBM (plus 104 in Kazakhstan). The Strategic Naval Forces had 10,000 personnel, manning 52 nuclear-fueled ballistic submarines (SSBN) carrying 788 SLBM, all based in Russian ports. Strategic Aviation Forces had 19,000 personnel and included 20 Blackjack-A Tu-160 bombers (based in Ukraine) and 89 Tu-95 Bear-H, each carrying 8 air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM) based in Kazakhstan and Ukraine, plus 66 older Tu-95. General purpose forces included an army with one million personnel, organized into 18 tank, 61 motor rifle (mechanized), 15 artillery/missile, and 5 airborne divisions of 11,100-13,500 men each. Equipment included some 25,000 tanks, 22,000 armoured infantry fighting vehicles (AIFV), and 24,000 artillery pieces. The air force had about 170,000 personnel with 3,600 combat aircraft. The air defense troops formed a separate service with some 230,000 personnel, 2,200 fighter aircraft, and 7,000 surface-to-air missile (SAM) launchers at 900 fixed sites. The navy had 300,000 personnel, 169 principal surface combatants, and 153 tactical submarines.

      By year's end all effective Russian forces and equipment had been withdrawn from the former Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Mongolia, and Poland and were being withdrawn from Germany and the Baltic states (albeit slowly). The only significant overseas deployments of Russian forces, other than in republics of the former Soviet Union, were 2,200 troops in Cuba and 1,000 in Libya. The attempt to form Russian and local Commonwealth of Independent States Joint General Purposes Forces (CIS-JGPF) on the territories of Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, and Armenia appeared to be coming apart by year's end.

      Ukraine was vitally concerned about national security issues (especially Russia) and its economic situation, and throughout the year it attempted to bargain nuclear weapons for economic and security guarantees. In July Ukraine claimed ownership of the former Soviet strategic and tactical nuclear weapons on its territory. In November Ukraine signed START I but made its accession conditional upon compensation and security guarantees. In December, however, Ukrainian Pres. Leonid Kravchuk announced that Ukraine would give up much of the nuclear forces on its territory, including all 46 of the new SS-24 silo-based ICBM. He also said that Ukraine had already deactivated 17 missiles and would dismantle 3 more by year's end.

      Meeting in Massandra, Crimea, in early September, the Ukrainian president and Russian Pres. Boris Yeltsin apparently agreed that Ukraine would sell its half control of the Black Sea Fleet (which totaled about 350 ships and 70,000 sailors) in exchange for a partial write-off of its debt to Moscow for oil and gas. When he got back to Kiev, however, Kravchuk ran into strident criticism and had to renege on the deal, so by year's end it was still unclear which government controlled which units of the fleet. Ukraine's Parliament adopted a military doctrine in October, declaring that "Ukraine will consider its potential adversary to be a state whose consistent policy constitutes a military danger to Ukraine." Large military forces were deployed, with ground forces of 217,000 personnel and 5,700 main battle tanks and an air force of 171,000 personnel and some 900 combat aircraft. Plans to create a new service, the Air Defense Troops, by merging the air defense forces with the air force seemed to have been shelved at the end of December.

      Belarus deployed military forces totaling 102,600 personnel (to be cut to 90,000 by 1995), mainly ground forces of 50,500 personnel, with 3,287 main battle tanks, and an air force of 14,100 personnel and 341 combat aircraft. Belarus signed the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty in February. The Defense Ministry reported on December 22 that 27 of the mobile strategic SS-25 missiles had been withdrawn to Russia, where some were thought to have been redeployed. The remaining missiles were to be withdrawn by 1996.

      Local press reports in mid-December hinted that agreement was near on the withdrawal of Russia's 14th Army from the Transdniester area of Moldova. Until October the flamboyant head of the Russian force, Col. Aleksandr Lebed, had been playing an increasingly political role in the heavily Russian-populated area. The main military and diplomatic concern of the three Baltic states was the continued presence of Russian (ex-Soviet) troops on their territories. At the beginning of the year these comprised an estimated 7,000 troops in Estonia, 17,000 in Latvia, and 4,300 in Lithuania; the last Russian troops were withdrawn from Lithuania at the end of August. All three Baltic states were establishing small national armed forces (2,000-7,000 personnel) during the year. Estonia appointed Col. Aleksander Einseln, a U.S. citizen, as chief of staff of its Defense Forces on May 4.

      Azerbaijan, which had to cope with internal divisions in its armed forces as well as the war with Armenia, deployed the largest military forces in the Transcaucasian area—up to 38,900 troops, as well as some 12,000 claimed for the Karabakh People's Defense units. Armenia, with armed forces personnel totaling some 20,000, more or less supporting the 20,000 troops of the Nagorno-Karabakh region, made significant gains in its war with Azerbaijan over the mountainous, mainly Armenian enclave. In addition to occupying Nagorno-Karabakh, it also seized key access routes to it from Azerbaijan proper. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan had Russian troops on their territory. Georgia planned to deploy some 20,000 troops of its own, with Russian forces of one ground army and one air army on its territory. The breakaway Georgian province of Abkhazia, with some 4,000 troops of its own and with sometime support of more-or-less irregular Russian units, succeeded in expelling the Georgian army.

      Each of the five former Soviet Union republics in Central Asia had significant numbers of former Soviet military forces on their territory. These were, in principle, to have joined the CIS-JGPF under joint control with Russia, but the independent republics were taking control over their forces and forming national armies. Kazakhstan had an army of 44,000 with 1,400 battle tanks plus an air force of some 140 fighter, ground-attack (FGA)/fighters. Russia retained control of Kazakhstan's air defense force of 80 fighters as well as the 50 strategic bombers and the 104 SS-18 ICBM deployed at two sites in the country. Kazakhstan ratified the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty on December 13, during the visit to Almaty of U.S. Vice Pres. Al Gore, and the U.S. agreed to provide $84 million in denuclearization aid.

      Kyrgyzstan had an army of 12,000 personnel and 240 battle tanks. Turkmenistan's military forces, which included an army of 28,000 personnel and 900 battle tanks and an air force (including air defense) of 80 FGA and 85 fighter aircraft, were under joint Turkmen/Russian control. Uzbekistan had an army of 38,000 personnel and 210 battle tanks and an air force of 70 FGA. In Tajikistan, however, a small Russian army of 8,500 personnel with 200 battle tanks had intervened to enable the communist-dominated government to regain control of Dushanbe, the capital, from the democratic and Islamic opposition groups. Over 500,000 Tajiks became refugees, and many crossed into Afghanistan, from where opposition groups launched attacks on Russian forces. During 1993 these attacks increased, and Russia threatened to attack opposition bases in Afghanistan.

Peacekeeping and Relief Operations.

       UN Peacekeeping Operations Active in 1993, Table Countries Contributing the Largest Numbers of Troops to UN Peacekeeping Missions in 1993, TableThe year saw the increasing deployment of United Nations peacekeeping and relief forces, which had begun in earnest in 1991. These were detachments of national military forces, usually operating under UN command. Table I (UN Peacekeeping Operations Active in 1993, Table) lists current UN peacekeeping operations (for details of the main missions, see United Nations and the separate country reports). In 1993 the UN also sent missions to, or produced reports about, Uganda/Rwanda; Kosovo, Sandjak, and Vojvodina (Yugoslavia); Georgia; Estonia; and Moldova. Table II (Countries Contributing the Largest Numbers of Troops to UN Peacekeeping Missions in 1993, Table) lists the countries that supplied more than 1,500 troops to UN peacekeeping operations (which totaled 80,146) in 1993.

      Despite the burgeoning deployment of UN peacekeeping forces, the continued interest of Secretary-General Boutros Boutros-Ghali in increasing the missions, and the apparent willingness of the major world powers to pass the responsibility for "fire fighting" to the international organization, there were serious questions about the viability of the program. The U.S. military was especially insistent that its forces be committed to combat only by their president. The casualties inflicted on UN forces in Somalia, including 24 Pakistani and 18 Americans killed in separate, carefully targeted attacks, raised pointed questions about the role of UN forces, their command, and their effectiveness. Similarly, the UN "blue helmet" units in Bosnia proved too small and ineffectual to have much impact on the progress of the peace. Some countries began to withdraw their troops from UN forces in Cyprus because of lack of progress.

      On another front, the UN was experiencing critical problems financing the expensive peacekeeping activities, and Boutros-Ghali spent a great deal of time in 1993 passing the hat. There was no line item in the UN budget for peacekeeping operations, nor was there any provision for the organization to take out loans. The peacekeeping budget, which had to rely on separate assessments to member governments, reached $1.4 billion in 1993, of which $1.2 billion was in arrears.

NATO.

      In 1993 the NATO alliance continued to assist the evolution of democratic governments in Eastern Europe, Russia, and the other states formed from the Soviet Union. At the same time, NATO maintained lower levels of defense forces, at lower states of readiness, but with enhanced mobility and flexibility. Some alliance members, notably the U.S., the U.K., and France, also continued to help enforce the terms of the UN cease-fire in Iraq.

      NATO continued to reduce levels of conventional forces through the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) Treaty. Many NATO countries foresaw force cuts well below CFE Treaty levels, however. Under the treaty, for example, the U.S. was limited to 250,000 troops, but their forces already stood well below these levels—183,000 personnel—and cuts to 100,000 by 1996 seemed likely.

      Gen. George Joulwan, formerly commander of U.S. forces in Latin America, replaced Gen. John Shalikashvili as NATO chief commander in Europe. The defense ministers of the NATO countries met at Travemünde, Germany, on October 20-21. Among other topics, they discussed the desire of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, and Ukraine to join. Germany supported an accelerated schedule for affiliation, but other NATO nations, led by the U.S., were more reluctant, and the final formulation was that the Eastern European states would join a "Partnership for Peace" and be offered membership "sooner rather than later," in the words of Secretary Aspin, but would have to do without the desired security guarantees for the present. Russian President Yeltsin underscored his opposition to any expansion of NATO membership in the East in a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Manfred Wörner in December.

      Steps were taken during 1993 to form the Eurocorps, an integrated European army of 30,000-40,000, under the aegis of the Western European Union, the security and defense arm of the European Community. Troops and equipment from the U.K., The Netherlands, France, Belgium, Germany, and Spain that had been identified for service with NATO would be attached to the WEU for use in possible future peacekeeping operations.

United States.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The issue of homosexuals in the armed forces made headlines in the U.S. throughout the year. The new president, Bill Clinton, was forced to back away from a campaign pledge to drop the 50-year ban on homosexuals serving in the military when he immediately ran into opposition within the military establishment and on Capitol Hill. Finally in December, after congressional hearings and a Pentagon report, a vague compromise policy was adopted. Dubbed "don't ask, don't tell, don't pursue," it would allow gays and lesbians to serve in the armed forces but not to engage in overt homosexual activity.

      Details of the drinking, debauchery, and sexual assault of dozens of women by U.S. Navy and Marine aviators at the 1991 convention of the Tailhook Society were documented in a report from the Pentagon released on April 23. The incident was presumably put to rest with the formal censure of three admirals and administrative actions against 29 other officers for failing to stop the offenses. In another incident in June, Air Force Maj. Gen. Harold N. Campbell was disciplined for making disparaging remarks about his commander in chief.

      Among the key appointments of the year, on July 3 President Clinton nominated Prof. Sheila E. Widnall as secretary of the air force, the first woman to head a military service in the U.S. Gen. Colin L. Powell, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, retired on September 30 and was replaced by Gen. John M. Shalikashvili. (See BIOGRAPHIES (Shalikashvili, John Malchase David ).) On December 16 former CIA deputy director and retired four-star admiral Bobby Ray Inman was designated as secretary of defense, to replace Aspin, who had announced his resignation one day earlier.

      The U.S. all-volunteer armed forces in 1993 totaled 1,729,700 personnel. Under the Bottom Up Defense Review (BUDR) announced in late January, further cuts were to be made in the 1995 base force proposed by the Bush administration to a level of 10 active army divisions (down from 12), a navy retaining 12 aircraft carriers and 346 major surface combatants (down from 451), and an air force of 13 active fighter wing equivalents (down from 15), each with 72 combat aircraft. The U.S. Marine Corps would remain at three divisions and three air wings. The BUDR would cut total active forces to some 1.4 million personnel. Defense spending for fiscal 1993 was almost $258.9 billion. In October Aspin announced a thorough review of the 45-year-old U.S. nuclear weapons strategy, to be completed early in 1994. Amid allegations that some tests in the Strategic Defense Initiative had been rigged, the controversial "Star Wars" program was officially terminated on May 13, to be replaced by a new Ballistic Missile Defense Organization.

      Other aspects of Secretary Aspin's reorganization to mark the end of the Cold War included the creation of new Pentagon posts in the area of human rights, arms proliferation, and conversion of military industries. In April the Pentagon dropped most restrictions on women's engaging in aerial and naval combat, and later in the year legislation was signed lifting the ban on women's serving aboard naval combat vessels. A total of 203,100 women were serving in the U.S. armed forces in 1993.

      The new Air Combat Command (ACC) had taken over responsibility from the Strategic Air Command for U.S. strategic nuclear programs. The elderly B-52 bomber force declined to 36 B-52Gs and 94 B-52Hs. All 36 B-52Gs had been converted to deliver conventional weapons, including the Harpoon air-to-surface missile (ASM) for antishipping missions. The 94 B-52Hs carried AGM-86B ALCM. Deployment of the advanced cruise missile (ACM), with low-observable ("stealth") technology, continued. Only 20 new B-2 stealth bombers would be built.

      The U.S. land-based, fixed-silo ICBM force was to be reduced in accordance with START I and II. The 507 silo-based Minuteman III ICBM would be converted to single warheads instead of 3 MIRV. All 50 MX Peacekeeper ICBM would be eliminated, and all 450 elderly Minuteman II ICBM in fixed silos were to be retired and were stood down from alert status, as were strategic bombers. Under START II the ACC would retain 94 modern Rockwell B-1B strategic bombers, but these would be converted to deliver conventional weapons. In addition, START II limited the U.S. and Russia to 1,750 warheads deployed on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). The U.S. ballistic missile nuclear submarine (SSBN) force was reduced to 23, carrying 480 SLBM. Six of the 14 modern Ohio-class SSBN each carried 24 Trident II/D-5 SLBM, while the other eight carried 24 Trident I/C-4s. Plans for the newer, more capable Trident II/D-5 SLBM to replace the Trident I/C-4s on the other eight Ohio-class SSBN had been scrapped, and Trident II/D-5 deployment would be limited to 250-428 SLBM. Older SSBN included five Franklin class (80 Trident I/C-4s) and four Madison class (64 Trident I/C-4s). All nuclear submarine-launched cruise missiles (SLCM) had been replaced with conventionally armed SLCM on the 21 nuclear attack/cruise missile submarines (SSGN) equipped with SLCM. Plans called for a total of over 2,300 conventionally armed BGM-109A Tomahawk sea-launched cruise missiles to be deployed.

      The U.S. Navy in mid-1993 totaled 161 principal surface combatants, 66 nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN), and 510,600 personnel. These provided 12 active carrier battle groups (CVBG), each carrier having an air wing of some 70 aircraft plus escorting surface vessels and SSN. Of the total of 13 aircraft carriers, 7 were nuclear-powered CVN and 6 were conventionally powered. Modern aircraft included 428 F-14A/D/A plus Tomcat fighters, 474 F/A-18A Hornet fighter/ground attack (FGA) planes, 461 A-6 Intruder/Prowler strike, and 110 E-2C Hawkeye electronic warfare/airborne early warning, plus 375 P-3B/C Orion maritime reconnaissance/anti-submarine warfare (ASW) aircraft. The 9 nuclear and 43 conventionally powered guided-weapons (G) cruisers (CGN/CG) included 25 modern Ticonderoga-class (CG-47 Aegis) equipped with the Aegis/Standard fleet air defense radar/missile system. Other major surface combatants included 38 destroyers and 59 frigates. The Marine Corps, with 183,000 personnel, was organized into three divisions, each with its own air wing. Modern aircraft included 288 F18-A/D Hornet FGA, 35 A-6 Intruder strike, and 219 AV-8A/C Harrier vertical/short takeoff and landing (V/STOL) FGA.

      The 499,900-strong U.S. Air Force had approximately 3,451 combat aircraft plus some 1,452 in storage. Among modern types were 824 F-15-A/D Eagle fighters, 1,910 F-16 Falcon FGA, and 55 F-117 stealth FGA, plus 34 E-3 Sentry airborne warning and control systems (AWACS). Most of the 275 F-111 A-F medium bombers were being retired.

      The U.S. Army, which comprised 586,200 personnel, formed eight heavy and two airborne divisions—three armoured, four mechanized, one infantry, one air assault, and one airborne—plus two light infantry divisions. Modern armour included 7,828 Abrams M-1/1A1 tanks and 6,329 M-2/3 Bradley armoured infantry fighting vehicles (AIFV), plus some 6,402 M-60/60A1 and M60-A3 tanks and 12,346 M-113 armoured personnel carriers (APC).

United Kingdom.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The defense budget for 1993 totaled £ 23.5 billion. Modernization of the U.K.'s national nuclear forces continued with the deployment of the first of four Vanguard-class SSBN carrying 16 U.S. Trident II SLBM with U.K. warheads, to replace the three SSBN carrying U.S. Polaris A-3 SLBM with U.K. Chevaline warheads. The U.K. would also retain a substrategic nuclear capability. In November, however, it was announced that Britain would limit its deployment of Trident missiles, partly to cut costs and partly to keep in step with the U.S. and Russia, which were sharply reducing their nuclear arsenals.

      The army of 134,600 had 426 new Challenger and 700 Chieftain battle tanks, plus 682 Warrior AIFV and 3,585 APC. The Royal Air Force, with 80,900 personnel, had about 688 combat aircraft. The Royal Navy had 59,300 personnel, with 13 SSN and 40 principal surface combatants. Royal Marine personnel totaled some 7,600.

Germany.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The German armed forces faced continued problems in retiring or absorbing former East German armed forces personnel, safeguarding and destroying their equipment, and restructuring the unified force, more than half of them professionals. Despite these difficulties, Germany was emerging as the largest military power in Europe. Under the CFE Treaty, German armed forces would be limited to a total of 345,000 personnel by 1996 but were to be reduced to 300,000. No non-German NATO forces would be stationed on the territory of the former East Germany. Russian forces stationed there, now reduced to some 58,000 personnel, were to be withdrawn by 1994, but Germany continued to pay their occupation costs.

      In 1993 Germany's army comprised 12 divisions (six armoured, three armoured infantry, one mountain, and one airborne), to be reorganized and reduced to 6 divisions by the end of 1994. Armour included 2,122 new Leopard 2 (253 to be upgraded) and 2,007 Leopard 1A1 battle tanks, plus 327 T-72M and 1,455 T-54/-55 former East German tanks in store. The air force had 617 combat aircraft, including 237 new Tornadoes and 24 new MiG-29s, plus 193 older Phantom F-4s. The navy had 14 major surface combatants, together with 115 naval combat aircraft, including 101 Tornado attack/reconnaissance aircraft.

France.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Modernization of France's national nuclear forces continued, with five SSBN operational and three on order. All carried the M-4 SLBM. Prestrategic (tactical) nuclear forces were mainly the ASMP air-to-surface missile. Military personnel totaled 411,600 (241,400 in the army). Equipment included 1,000 AMX-30 battle tanks, 816 AMX-10P/PC Milan AIFV, and about 4,000 APC. These were organized in the equivalent of four armoured and two mechanized infantry divisions, plus a Rapid Action Force for overseas intervention of five light divisions. The air force had 796 combat aircraft. The navy's 42 major surface combatants included 2 small carriers, 4 destroyers with SAM (DDG), and 34 frigates as well as 13 attack submarines (5 nuclear).

Eastern Europe.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The armed forces of the rump Yugoslavia (comprising Serbia and Montenegro) included some 136,500 personnel, including an army of some 100,000 with some 640 battle tanks. The air force of 29,000 had 480 combat aircraft, mostly older Soviet types, including 108 MiG-21 fighters, but these aircraft were effective in the continuing fighting in Bosnia and Herzegovina and Croatia. By the end of 1993, Serb forces controlled almost one-third of the territory of Croatia. The governments of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina defended their territories with national militias, as did the former Yugoslav republic of Slovenia, which lay outside the battle zones.

      Poland had military forces totaling 287,500, including a 188,500-strong army with 2,545 main battle tanks and a 79,800-strong air force with 468 combat aircraft. The creation of the Czech Republic and Slovakia on Jan. 1, 1993, was accompanied by the division of the former Czechoslovak army. The forces inherited by the Czech Republic numbered 106,500 personnel, including an army of 41,900 with 1,543 tanks and an air force of 36,600 with 226 combat aircraft (mostly MiG-21/-21U/-23 FGA). Slovakia, the smaller and less populous part of the former Czechoslovakia, received armed forces totaling 47,000, including an army of 33,000 (935 tanks) and an air force of 14,000 (146 combat aircraft).

Middle East.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) The military balance in the Middle East remained heavily influenced by the defeat of Iraq in the 1991 Gulf war. Strongman Saddam Hussein had lost most of his military capability to threaten neighbouring countries but retained sufficient armed forces to continue his rule by terror. Iraqi armed forces personnel totaled perhaps 382,000, including an army of some 350,000 with an estimated 2,200 battle tanks and 700 AIFV. The air force of 30,000, including 15,000 air defense personnel, had some 130 FGA and 180 fighters. UN economic sanctions against Iraqi remained in force. The UN Special Commission succeeded in verifying the destruction of declared stocks of tactical ballistic missiles and the means of manufacturing them and, despite Iraqi obstruction, located some undeclared manufacturing capabilities.

      Iran was reemerging as a major regional military power, with armed forces totaling 473,000 personnel, including an army of some 320,000 personnel with some 700 battle tanks and 900 AIFV/APC, plus 120,000 personnel in the Revolutionary Guard Corps. The air force of 15,000 personnel had some 293 combat aircraft. Iran also appeared to have purchased Chinese M-9 and North Korean improved Scud TBM and to be purchasing North Korean Rodong 1 missiles. Since Iran had over 100 Scud TBM and some Scud-C TBM, it was acquiring a significant rocket force, and some observers were concerned that it could tilt the regional military balance.

      Jordan's small but effective army (85,000) had 1,131 battle tanks, and the air force (11,000) had 62 F-5E/F and 32 Mirage F-1BJ/CJ/EJ FGA. Syria's armed forces personnel totaled 408,000, with an army of approximately 300,000 organized into six armoured plus three mechanized and one Republican Guard divisions. Equipment included 1,400 battle tanks and 2,250 AIFV. The air defense command had 60,000 personnel manning 95 batteries with Soviet SAM. The 40,000-strong air force had some 639 combat aircraft.

      Israel was still capable of deterring major attacks by Syria, but it increasingly relied on thinly veiled threats of massive retaliation with its nuclear weapons, estimated to include up to 100 warheads and Jericho 1 and 2 SSM (surface-to-surface missiles). It remained the region's strongest military power, especially in the quality of its personnel and weapons, but its defense burden, which topped $6.8 billion for 1993, was difficult to support, even with massive aid from the U.S.

      Libya's forces remained numerically large, totaling 70,000 personnel with 2,300 battle tanks (1,200 in storage) and 409 combat aircraft (many in storage). Egypt's conversion from Soviet to Western equipment was completed. The army of approximately 310,000 was equipped with 80 M-1A1 Abrams and 1,447 U.S. M-60A1/-3 plus 20 Ramses II (modified Soviet T-54/-55s). The 30,000-strong air force had 546 combat aircraft. In mid-February the United Arab Emirates announced that they would be purchasing 400 Leclerc battle tanks, choosing the French equipment over the U.S. Abrams M-1A2 and the British Vickers Challenger 2.

South and Central Asia.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) With the breakup of the former Soviet Union, military analysts recognized a new geostrategic area, South and Central Asia, consisting of the five former Soviet Central Asian republics (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—discussed above) plus Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Myanmar (Burma).

      In Afghanistan, following the fall of Kabul, the major mujahideen groups took over the military equipment of the former government, including 1,200 battle tanks. Conflict between Pakistan and India remained a danger because of continued civil unrest in Kashmir and Hindu-Muslim religious clashes in India. Such a conflict could potentially escalate to the use of nuclear weapons, since Pakistan and India both appeared to have a limited number of such devices. Pakistan's armed forces totaled 577,000, mainly an army of 510,000 with some 2,000 battle tanks. The air force comprised 45,000 personnel and 393 combat aircraft. India continued to be the major regional military power, with armed forces totaling some 1,265,000 personnel. The 1.1 million-strong army had some 3,400 battle tanks. The air force of 110,000 had 707 combat aircraft, and the navy of 55,000 had 24 surface combatants and 15 submarines.

East Asia and Oceania.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Evidence of the growing importance of the Pacific Rim countries was provided in July when 17 countries, including the U.S., Russia, Japan, China, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea, met to launch the Asian Regional Forum to work together on defense and stability for the region.

      Chinese armed forces in 1993 were being reduced from a total personnel strength of about three million but were still the largest in the area. New estimates of China's nuclear stockpile had grown, but it remained small, with limited numbers of comparatively old, vulnerable delivery systems. These included about 14 ICBM (CSS-3/-4), 90 CSS-2 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM), and one Xia-class SSBN with 12 CSS-N-3 (J-1) SLBM (modified DF-3s). The army had 2.3 million personnel but fewer than 8,000 battle tanks, while the 470,000-strong air force's 4,970 combat aircraft were mostly modifications of old Soviet models. The navy of 260,000 had 56 major surface vessels plus 45 tactical submarines. Vietnam remained the second largest military power in the area. The end of most economic and military aid from the Soviet Union, however, had forced the government to end its military intervention in Cambodia and Laos and cut its armed forces to a total of 857,000 personnel. The army of 700,000 had approximately 1,300 main battle tanks, and the 15,000-strong air force had approximately 240 combat aircraft, including 175 MiG-21 fighters.

      Japan's 1993 defense expenditure was $34.7 billion. Armed forces personnel were being reduced from a total of 237,700, including an army of 149,900 with 1,200 battle tanks. The air force had 44,700 personnel and 438 combat aircraft, including 73 Japanese-made F-1 FGA and 158 F-15J/DJ Eagle and 72 Phantom F-4 fighters. The 43,100-strong navy had 7 DDG, 55 frigates, and 15 tactical submarines. Taiwan's armed forces, totaling 442,000 personnel, continued to provide a credible defense against China. The army, with 312,000 personnel, had 309 battle tanks, and the 70,000-strong air force had 484 combat aircraft. Defense spending in 1993 totaled $10.4 billion.

      South Korea deployed large military forces: 633,000 military personnel, with an army of 520,000 (1,800 battle tanks and 2,000 AIFV) and a navy of 60,000. The air force of 53,000 had 445 combat aircraft, mostly newer American types. The U.S. maintained a large infantry division in South Korea, with 26,000 personnel, and 2 air force wings, with 9,500 personnel and 84 combat aircraft.

Caribbean and Latin America.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Russian support for local antigovernment insurgencies, largely funneled through Cuba, had ended with the fall of the U.S.S.R. In Nicaragua the democratically elected president, Violeta Chamorro, had reversed the Soviet and Cuban-backed military buildup, and armed forces personnel had been reduced and stabilized at some 15,200 volunteers. In El Salvador the cease-fire agreed to by the government and the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) was holding. The FMLN had completed its demobilization by the end of 1992, and the El Salvador army was reduced to 28,000. The capture in September 1992 by the Peruvian armed forces (numbering 115,000) of Abimael Guzman, leader of the Sendero Luminoso (Shining Path), had reduced terrorist attacks somewhat, but the Maoist guerrillas still numbered 5,000-8,000.

      These developments highlighted the isolation of Cuba's Pres. Fidel Castro as one of the last Stalinist-style communist leaders. Cuba retained disproportionately large armed forces by regional standards, totaling 173,500 personnel, including an army of 145,000 with 1,575 battle tanks and an air force of some 15,000 and 140 combat aircraft. All overseas Cuban military deployments had ended. Russia had cut almost all aid to Cuba, and Russian forces were down to 2,200 personnel, one-fifth of peak levels (the U.S. maintained 2,300 troops at Guantánamo Bay).

Africa South of the Sahara.

       Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World(For a comparison of approximate strengths of selected regular armed forces, see Table III (Approximate Strengths of Selected Regular Armed Forces of the World).) Some long-running wars in Africa seemed to be winding down in 1993, but other conflicts, such as the vicious war in Liberia, continued, and racial violence broke out anew in still other countries such as Rwanda and Burundi. Broadly, there seemed to be a collapse of the limited authority of central governments and a spread of anarchy and warlordism, as in Ethiopia and Somalia.

      The civil war in Ethiopia had ended in 1991, but no national military force had been formed afterward. The Tigré People's Liberation Front (TPLF), the largest rebel group, with some 100,000 military personnel, had taken over much of the former government's military equipment. The Oromo Liberation Front opposed and often fought with the TPLF. Similarly, in Somalia no national armed forces had been formed after the 1991 revolution, and military equipment and power had been taken over by clans, the traditional source of power. The government in Angola had armed forces totaling some 45,000 and 230 battle tanks. These were to have been merged with the 40,000 troops of the opposition Union for the Total Independence of Angola following a cease-fire and UN supervised elections, but the agreement collapsed. Both sides accused the other of employing South African mercenaries.

      South Africa remained the dominant military power in the region but continued streamlining its armed forces, keeping step with Prime Minister de Klerk's political liberalization. Troops numbered 67,500, including an army of 47,000 in 10 area commands (plus a separate Walvis Bay command) with 250 battle tanks and 1,500 Ratel AIFV, a navy of about 4,500, and an air force of 10,000 with 245 combat aircraft.

      (ROBIN RANGER)

      See also Space Exploration .

      This updates the article military technology.

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