Emerging Equity Markets

▪ 1995

Introduction

by John Mullin

      By the beginning of 1994, stock markets in less developed countries (LDCs)—known as emerging equity markets—had taken root in all corners of the globe. The most mature and prominent of these markets were concentrated in Asia and Latin America, with several notable exceptions, such as South Africa. Newer markets, however, were developing in Eastern Europe, Russia, Africa, and the Middle East. Markets had opened in such far-flung locales as Zambia, Malta, and Nepal. Many more countries, including Vietnam, Cameroon, and Uganda, were working to establish equity markets.

Rapid Growth of Emerging Markets.

      Equity markets in LDCs expanded rapidly during the first three quarters of 1994, despite a shift in U.S. monetary policy that left the more developed equity markets of Europe and the United States treading water. This growth marked the continuation of a trend, as the decade spanning 1983-93 had seen a 20-fold expansion in the total value of shares in the 25 emerging markets tracked by the World Bank's International Finance Corporation. Expansion had been particularly vigorous in 1993, when U.S. investors buoyed overseas bourses by purchasing record amounts of foreign-equity shares. The trend was interrupted in February and March 1994, when most of the world's stock markets suffered price declines following the U.S. Federal Reserve System's decision to increase the federal funds rate. Whereas most developed markets languished in the aftermath of the change in U.S. monetary policy, however, many emerging markets gained significant ground. In particular, Brazil's market capitalization increased more than 80% during the first three quarters of 1994. Overall, emerging-market capitalization (the total value of shares in emerging markets) increased from $1.4 trillion at the end of 1993 to $1.6 trillion by August 1994.

      The resilience demonstrated by emerging equity markets in 1994 indicated that the dramatic growth of these markets in the previous several years had not been simply the product of an investment fad or speculative mania. Dramatic price gains in 1993, largely concentrated in the latter part of the year, had prompted many observers to question whether rapid increases in emerging market share prices constituted a "bubble." (In a bubble, investors shift their attention away from prospective income streams and increasingly speculate on further price increases.) Although bubbles may have existed in several emerging markets coming into 1994, the evidence strongly suggested that emerging market equity shares were not overpriced as an asset class. At the end of 1993, the composite emerging market price-to-earnings ratio (p/e) stood at 25.9, which meant that the total value of emerging market shares was 25.9 times 1993 corporate earnings. This multiple was very much in line with the composite developed market p/e, which stood at 28.6 at the end of 1993. In theory, emerging market shares probably should have had higher p/e's than developed market shares, given the emerging markets' outstanding growth prospects. Consequently, emerging market shares may well have been underpriced coming into 1993.

The Role of Emerging Markets.

      Starting in the late 1980s, emerging equity markets had begun to play a substantial role in channeling financing to firms located in LDCs. In this way the markets helped allocate the world's savings to areas where the potential returns on investment were greatest. Capital was scarce relative to labour in LDCs, and wage rates were generally low. Consequently, investments in plant and equipment in those economies could yield greater increases to income streams than similar investments in the developed economies of Western Europe, Japan, and the U.S. By helping to channel savings to the LDCs, emerging equity markets helped to improve the efficiency with which the world's savings were allocated.

      Of course, capital had been scarce relative to labour in LDCs long before foreign portfolio equity investment became an important source of financing in the late 1980s. Key changes had taken place during the late 1980s and early 1990s, however, that helped free the flow of capital to LDCs. Among these changes were basic economic reforms. In Latin America far-reaching programs to eliminate government budget deficits and stabilize exchange rates and prices played a particularly important role, as did the restructuring of several Latin-American countries' commercial bank debt. Throughout the world, government policy makers increasingly began to promote market-oriented reform programs. A crucial element of these programs was privatization. LDCs in Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe sold shares of previously government-controlled enterprises. These stock offerings increased stock market depth and thereby increased the capacity of emerging equity markets to serve as sources of fresh capital for LDC firms.

The Effect of U.S. Investors.

      Emerging markets benefited from changes in developed economies. By 1994 U.S. institutional and individual investors had become committed to the notion that international portfolio diversification would enhance the performance of their investment portfolios. U.S. investors were attracted by the outstanding returns that emerging markets had registered historically. The stock markets of Argentina, Chile, and Malaysia in particular had registered annualized returns in excess of 30% between 1976 and 1993. Returns in Mexico, Taiwan, Thailand, and India exceeded 20% per year during the same period. These returns looked quite attractive relative to the annualized return of 14% achieved by the U.S. market during the same period. During 1993 and 1994, U.S. investors began to invest overseas aggressively. At the beginning of 1993, international assets accounted for only 2% of all mutual fund assets. By August 1994, however, the figure had increased to 6%. Purchases of emerging market equity shares contributed importantly to this increase.

      The rapidly developing market for American Depository Receipts (ADRs) also continued to facilitate capital flows to emerging equity markets in 1994. ADRs were claims, issued by U.S. depository institutions, to underlying equity shares of foreign-based companies. Depository institutions held the underlying shares as custodians and thereby saved investors some of the costs and risks associated with settlement and clearance in foreign markets. The size of emerging market ADR programs had grown rapidly since Telmex, the Mexican telecommunications company, raised $1.2 billion in a successful ADR offering in May 1991.

Global Developments.

      Young markets in Russia, Eastern Europe, China, and Africa developed by fits and starts in 1994. Foreign and domestic investors were attracted to shares in these relatively new markets by the prospect of buying stakes in potentially fast-growing companies at bargain prices and subsequently selling these shares at higher prices. Oftentimes the competition to acquire shares caused wide gyrations in share prices.

      Shares of Russian firms yielded remarkable returns in 1994 for those investors brave enough to acquire them and tenacious enough to hold on to them. Share prices of the local telephone company in St. Petersburg increased 140-fold in the 12 months following the firm's 1993 privatization, and share prices of United Energy Systems—the world's largest electric utility—increased 50-fold during the first three quarters of 1994. Great opportunities in Russia, however, were accompanied by great problems. Investors found it extremely difficult to settle transactions and were unable to find suitable custodians to hold their shares for safekeeping. Foreign investors frequently had trouble obtaining satisfactory legal judgments from Russia's legal system because laws on capital gains were complicated and some of the country's larger companies did not recognize the rights of outside shareholders, foreign or domestic. Another basic problem in Russia was a lack of crucial information. In addition, accounting standards needed much improvement before relative share values could be measured with any degree of accuracy. Despite these problems, hedge funds and other risk takers brought large amounts of money into Russia during 1994. The country's privatization minister estimated that portfolio inflows reached $500 million per month during the summer.

      Similar booms had already taken place in Eastern Europe. In the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland, stock markets had boomed in the second half of 1993 as domestic and foreign investors bid up the shares of recently privatized enterprises and speculated on future price increases. Despite volatile price swings in 1994, equity market capitalization in the three Eastern European economies grew rapidly during the first three quarters as governments continued to privatize firms through share issuance.

      In Asia, too, markets continued to experience rapid capitalization growth in 1994 despite declining prices. Share prices in the Philippines and Indonesia, which had boomed in 1993, declined during the first three quarters of 1994. Nevertheless, market capitalization continued to grow. The value of shares in the Philippine market increased from $40 billion at the end of 1993 to $50 billion by the end of August 1994, while market capitalization in Indonesia increased from $33 billion to $40 billion. Equity market capitalization in China expanded at a similarly rapid pace during 1994.

      Market capitalization in Africa remained modest in 1994 outside of South Africa, as only small numbers of firms were listed on national exchanges. Following a decade in which gross domestic product actually declined in many African countries, however, governments were becoming more reform-minded. Besides ASA Ltd., a closed-end fund that had specialized in South African precious metal stocks for years, there had been few investment funds concentrating on Africa. This changed in 1994, as several closed-end Africa funds came into existence with mandates to invest substantial amounts of capital in South Africa as well as other African countries. As in Latin America, Asia, and Eastern Europe, privatization began to play a critical role in equity market development. In March 1994 the Ghanaian government sold half of its 55% stake in Ashanti Goldfields Co., quadrupling the number of shares on the Accra exchange. Morocco planned to privatize $3 billion worth of state firms, and Zambia stated its intention to sell Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines within the next few years.

John Mullin is an analyst in the global asset allocation department at Smith Barney, Shearson, Inc.

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