AFRICAN AFFAIRS

▪ 1994

Introduction

      The subcontinent's 48 states experienced a year of promise and disappointment. A new state, Eritrea, was born in May; three serious violent conflicts were halted with cease-fire agreements (Rwanda, Liberia, and Mozambique); but three others (Somalia, Angola, and The Sudan) saw an intensification of fighting. The movement toward democracy kept up its momentum but with only four changes of government (Lesotho, Madagascar, Central African Republic, and, briefly, Burundi). Despite grave violence, South Africa's negotiations for a postapartheid society stayed on course with agreement on an interim government and elections based on a universal franchise, but countries like Zaire and Togo remained bogged down in controversy. Good rains broke the century's severest drought and promised hope for economic recovery, but this was slowed down by the international economic recession. In many East African and Sahelian countries, a serious plague of locusts destroyed new crops.

Political Developments.

      Despite setbacks and growing violence, South Africa's two major political forces, the ruling National Party of Pres. F.W. de Klerk and Nelson Mandela's African National Congress, accepted the principles for a democratic constitution and agreed to hold the country's first-ever national elections in April 1994. (See Nobel Prizes .) The international sanctions against South Africa were ended in October. Rwanda made uneasy progress toward breaking centuries of ethnic conflict between the minority Tutsi and the majority Hutu. A military challenge by a Tutsi-led rebellion was checked by a cease-fire and an agreement to hold multiparty elections. Following the elections Burundi witnessed a bloody Tutsi-led reaction, however, and the country's first Hutu president, Melchior Ndadaye (see OBITUARIES (Ndadaye, Melchior )), was killed in a coup attempt in October. Military rule ended in Lesotho, and elections resulted in a landslide victory for the veteran radical Ntsu Mokhehle. In the Central African Republic, the military-led regime was defeated in free elections. A return to multiparty elections in Kenya saw the reelection of Pres. Daniel arap Moi's party. Under international pressure, Malawi's president for life, Hastings Kamuzu Banda, agreed to abandon his single-party rule. The promised ending of military rule in Nigeria ended in anticlimax when the junta refused to accept the choice of a new civilian president, MKO Abiola; their refusal plunged the country into a crisis that was only partly eased by the resignation of Pres. Ibrahim Babangida. One of Africa's elder statesmen, Pres. Félix Houphouët-Boigny of Côte d'Ivoire, died in December. (See OBITUARIES (Houphouet-Boigny, Felix ).)

Persistent Conflicts.

      The nearly 20-year civil war in Angola continued with increased violence after Jonas Savimbi, leader of the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola (UNITA), rejected the election results that had ended in victory for Pres. José Eduardo dos Santos' Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola. The United Nations condemned UNITA's action, declared military and economic sanctions against it, and called on Savimbi to end the fighting and accept the election results. A cease-fire in the other former Portuguese colony, Mozambique, was arranged between the government and its challenger, the Mozambique National Resistance. Arrangements were made for free elections and the disarming of both armies under UN military supervision.

      The bitter civil war in Liberia between the interim government led by Amos Sawyer and the National Patriotic Front of Liberia led by Charles Taylor was halted in July when a cease-fire was agreed to and a coalition government was formed. The agreement was brokered by the Economic Community of West African States, whose 11,000-strong force had operated as a peacekeeping force. The long drawn-out negotiations for a democratic constitution in Zaire continued to be frustrated by Pres. Mobutu Sese Seko's refusal to accept the designated prime minister, Étienne Tshisekedi, with the result that two parallel governments came into existence. However, agreement was finally reached on principles for holding multiparty elections.

Horn of Africa.

      Civil war continued unabated in The Sudan and Somalia, while the normally tranquil Djibouti witnessed serious armed conflict between the governing Issas and the minority Afars. Negotiations remained stalled in The Sudan between the Islamic fundamentalist regime in Khartoum and its several opponents. The war lost its character as a struggle between a mainly Muslim north and a predominantly Christian and animist south when the Sudan People's Liberation Army itself became divided, and the two major Muslim sects, the Ansars and Khatmia, entered into a loose alliance with the southerners.

      The civil war in Somalia became internationalized when a UN-led peacekeeping operation (UNOSOM-II) was drawn deeper into the conflict and ended up in a declaration of war against a major claimant to power, Gen. Muhammad Farah Aydid (see BIOGRAPHIES (Aydid, Gen. Muhammad Farah )), after his supporters had killed 24 Pakistani members of UNOSOM-II and a dozen American soldiers. After a failure to capture Aydid, a standoff was declared in a new effort to achieve a negotiated settlement.

      The promising new development in the Horn was the achievement of Eritrea's independence in May after almost 30 years of armed struggle. Ethiopia, to which Eritrea had formerly been linked, accepted Eritrea's breakaway, and the two countries signed a treaty of cooperation that, inter alia, guaranteed Ethiopia's free access to its two lost Red Sea ports, Mitsiwa and Aseb.

The Organization of African Unity (OAU).

      The 29th summit of heads of state and government met in Cairo in June under the chairmanship of Egypt's president, Hosni Mubarak. Eritrea was admitted as the 52nd member, and its president, Isaias Afwerki, aroused controversy by trenchant criticism of the OAU's past failures. A major departure of policy was marked by the adoption of a mechanism for conflict prevention, management, and resolution that would enable the OAU to play a more active role in dealing with conflicts in the continent.

      The mechanism would primarily seek to anticipate and prevent conflicts. The central organ would be composed of heads of state drawn from different parts of the continent who would themselves meet at least once a year; there were to be twice-yearly meetings at ministerial levels, and monthly talks at ambassadorial levels. The main responsibility for the work of the mechanism was entrusted to OAU Secretary-General Salim Ahmad Salim, who was reelected. The OAU was also active in trying to mediate in conflicts in Somalia and Zaire and was successful in helping to settle the conflict in Rwanda.

Inter-African Relations.

      All the major countries ended the OAU's diplomatic and economic boycott of South Africa and established formal relations. The OAU also indicated its readiness to admit South Africa as a member after a new government was elected. Meanwhile, South Africa obtained observer status in regional organizations such as the Southern African Development Community. Kenya and Zimbabwe played a leading role in helping to broker an agreement between the warring groups in Mozambique. The Sudan's relations with Kenya became strained over its complaints that the Moi government was supporting the rebels, but its major disagreement was with Egypt because of a border dispute. Cairo also accused Khartoum of supporting Islamic fundamentalists who crossed the border to attack tourists. Kenya was drawn into conflict with the warring Somali factions because of its alleged support for the ousted president, Muhammad Siad Barre. After years of tension Uganda and Kenya established good relations. Zaire was widely accused of giving support to UNITA and was strongly criticized by the Angolan government. Relations became strained between Togo and Ghana because of the latter's supposed support for opponents of Pres. Gnassingbe Eyadema. After having reached a point of near-war, Mauritania and Mali again established good relations. Sierra Leone was dragged into the civil war in Liberia when rebel forces began to operate from its territory.

International Relations.

      The decision by Pres. George Bush in 1992 to send a U.S. force to Somalia to ensure the safe conduct of food was initially welcomed by most African governments, but after the situation deteriorated in 1993, there was increasing criticism of the U.S. role. However, there was virtually no criticism of Washington when it declared The Sudan to be a terrorist state. Although The Sudan, backed by the Arab League, reacted strongly to Washington's decision, its regime sought to repair relations.

      Israel again began to play an active role in the continent after a number of African governments ended their diplomatic boycott of Jerusalem. Iran pursued an activist policy, seeking to allay suspicions that it was engaged in promoting the cause of Islamic fundamentalism in the continent—an accusation strongly made by Tanzania. China, Taiwan, and the two Koreas pursued a low-key policy on the continent. Japan increased its trading interest in Africa and doubled its economic aid budget. France continued its colonial policy of interventionism in the continent and played a major role in the elections in the Central African Republic, which led to the defeat of its military leader. It also sent troops to support the government of Rwanda and found itself unwillingly involved in the fighting in Djibouti. France and Britain were both active in persuading governments like those in Kenya and Malawi to abandon single-party rule and to improve their human rights record. With the collapse of the U.S.S.R., Russian influence shrank to zero in the continent. The Nordic countries continued to be the largest donors of aid to the continent but in some cases suspended aid to countries like Kenya because of perceived abuse of human rights.

Economic Affairs.

      Sub-Saharan Africa's economic situation continued to deteriorate despite strenuous efforts to foster recovery and in spite of the fact that almost all countries had been implementing structural adjustment programs in cooperation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The international recession affected African exports to industrialized countries, resulting in lower commodity prices and weaker markets, which, in turn, led to a deterioration in the terms of trade and to a consequent increase in the balance of payments deficit. Internal factors also contributed to the decline, but the IMF and other authorities agreed that the huge debt burden of sub-Saharan countries was a major contributory factor to the region's failure to grow.

      The region's gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 1.8% in 1992, the same as in the previous year, and was not expected to have improved much in 1993. With an average population increase of 3%, this amounted to negative growth. At the same time, per capita consumption, investment, and exports had continued to grow faster since 1991.

      Despite the growth in exports and because of lower prices, the region's current account deficit reached almost 10% of GDP, necessitating increased borrowing to finance domestic needs. Interest arrears mounted to $14 billion, more than three times the level of 1987—and this was despite debt forgiveness for the poorest of the region's countries.

      African concerns were that assistance to other areas of the world would diminish the amount of development aid provided by industrialized countries. However, Edward Jaycox, the World Bank's vice president for Africa, insisted that the continent would continue to enjoy top priority. He added that a different kind of relationship for the continent was envisaged for the future—one that stressed education, full use of African personnel, and strong local institutions. (COLIN LEGUM)

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