money

—moneyless, adj.

/mun"ee/, n., pl. moneys, monies, adj.

n.

1. any circulating medium of exchange, including coins, paper money, and demand deposits.

2. See paper money.

3. gold, silver, or other metal in pieces of convenient form stamped by public authority and issued as a medium of exchange and measure of value.

4. any article or substance used as a medium of exchange, measure of wealth, or means of payment, as checks on demand deposit or cowrie.

5. a particular form or denomination of currency. See table under currency.

6. See money of account.

7. capital to be borrowed, loaned, or invested: mortgage money.

8. an amount or sum of money: Did you bring some money?

9. wealth considered in terms of money: She was brought up with money.

10. moneys or monies, Chiefly Law. pecuniary sums.

11. property considered with reference to its pecuniary value.

12. pecuniary profit: not for love or money.

13. for one's money, Informal. with respect to one's opinion, choice, or wish: For my money, there's nothing to be gained by waiting.

14. in the money, Informal.

a. having a great deal of money; affluent: You can see he's in the money by all those clothes he buys.

b. first, second, or third place in a contest, esp. a horse or dog race.

15. make money, to make a profit or become rich: You'll never make money as a poet.

16. on the money, Informal.

a. at just the exact spot or time; on target: The space shuttle landed on the money at 9:55 A.M.

b. exhibiting or done with great accuracy or expertise: His weather forecasts are always on the money. Also, right on the money.

17. put one's money where one's mouth is, Informal. to prove the truth of one's words by actions or other evidence; demonstrate one's sincerity or integrity: Instead of bragging about your beautiful house, put your money where your mouth is and invite us over to see it.

adj.

18. of or pertaining to money.

19. used for carrying, keeping, or handling money: Have you seen my little money purse?

20. of or pertaining to capital or finance: the money business.

[1250-1300; ME moneie < MF < L moneta MINT², money]

Syn. 3. coin, cash, currency, specie, change. 11. funds, capital, assets, wealth, riches.

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I

Commodity accepted by general consent as a medium of economic exchange.

It is the medium in which prices and values are expressed; it circulates from person to person and country to country, thus facilitating trade. Throughout history various commodities have been used as money, including seashells, beads, and cattle, but since the 17th century the most common forms have been metal coins, paper notes, and bookkeeping entries. In standard economic theory, money is held to have four functions: to serve as a medium of exchange universally accepted in return for goods and services; to act as a measure of value, making possible the operation of the price system and the calculation of cost, profit, and loss; to serve as a standard of deferred payments, the unit in which loans are made and future transactions are fixed; and to provide a means of storing wealth not immediately required for use. Metals, especially gold and silver, have been used for money for at least 4,000 years; standardized coins have been minted for perhaps 2,600 years. In the late 18th and early 19th century, banks began to issue notes redeemable in gold or silver, which became the principal money of industrial economies. Temporarily during World War I and permanently from the 1930s, most nations abandoned the gold standard. To most individuals today, money consists of coins, notes, and bank deposits. In terms of the economy, however, the total money supply is several times as large as the sum total of individual money holdings so defined, since most of the deposits placed in banks are loaned out, thus multiplying the money supply several times over. See also soft money.

II

(as used in expressions)

money market

money order

money supply

money quantity theory of

ship money

soft money

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Introduction

      a commodity accepted by general consent as a medium of economic exchange. It is the medium in which prices (price) and values are expressed; as currency, it circulates anonymously from person to person and country to country, thus facilitating trade, and it is the principal measure of wealth.

      The subject of money has fascinated people from the time of Aristotle to the present day. The piece of paper labeled 1 dollar, 10 euros, 100 yuan, or 1,000 yen is little different, as paper, from a piece of the same size torn from a newspaper or magazine, yet it will enable its bearer to command some measure of food, drink, clothing, and the remaining goods of life while the other is fit only to light the fire. Whence the difference? The easy answer, and the right one, is that modern money is a social contrivance. People accept money as such because they know that others will. This common knowledge makes the pieces of paper valuable because everyone thinks they are, and everyone thinks they are because in his or her experience money has always been accepted in exchange for valuable goods, assets, or services. At bottom money is, then, a social convention, but a convention of uncommon strength that people will abide by even under extreme provocation. The strength of the convention is, of course, what enables governments to profit by inflating (increasing the quantity of) the currency. But it is not indestructible. When great increases occur in the quantity of these pieces of paper—as they have during and after wars—money may be seen to be, after all, no more than pieces of paper. If the social arrangement that sustains money as a medium of exchange breaks down, people will then seek substitutes—like the cigarettes and cognac that for a time served as the medium of exchange in Germany after World War II. New money may substitute for old under less extreme conditions. In many countries with a history of high inflation, such as Argentina, Israel, or Russia, prices may be quoted in a different currency, such as the U.S. dollar, because the dollar has more stable value than the local currency. Furthermore, the country's residents accept the dollar as a medium of exchange because it is well-known and offers more stable purchasing power than local money.

Functions of money

      The basic function of money is to enable buying to be separated from selling, thus permitting trade to take place without the so-called double coincidence of barter. In principle, credit could perform this function, but, before extending credit, the seller would want to know about the prospects of repayment. That requires much more information about the buyer and imposes costs of information and verification that the use of money avoids.

      If a person has something to sell and wants something else in return, the use of money avoids the need to search for someone able and willing to make the desired exchange of items. The person can sell the surplus item for general purchasing power—that is, “money”—to anyone who wants to buy it and then use the proceeds to buy the desired item from anyone who wants to sell it.

      The importance of this function of money is dramatically illustrated by the experience of Germany just after World War II, when paper money was rendered largely useless because of price controls (incomes policy) that were enforced effectively by the American, French, and British armies of occupation. Money rapidly lost its value. People were unwilling to exchange real goods for Germany's depreciating currency. They resorted to barter or to other inefficient money substitutes (such as cigarettes). Price controls reduced incentives to produce. The country's economic output fell by half. Later the German “economic miracle” that took root just after 1948 reflected, in part, a currency reform instituted by the occupation authorities that replaced depreciating money with money of stable value. At the same time, the reform eliminated all price controls, thereby permitting a money economy to replace a barter economy.

      These examples have shown the “medium of exchange” function of money. Separation of the act of sale from the act of purchase requires the existence of something that will be generally accepted in payment. But there must also be something that can serve as a temporary store of purchasing power, in which the seller holds the proceeds in the interim between the sale and the subsequent purchase or from which the buyer can extract the general purchasing power with which to pay for what is bought. This is called the “asset” function of money.

Varieties of money

      Anything can serve as money that habit or social convention and successful experience endow with the quality of general acceptability, and a variety of items have so served—from the wampum (beads made from shells) of American Indians, to cowries (cowrie) (brightly coloured shells) in India, to whales' teeth among the Fijians, to tobacco among early colonists in North America, to large stone disks on the Pacific island of Yap (Yap Islands), to cigarettes in post-World War II Germany and in prisons the world over. In fact, the wide use of cattle as money in primitive (primitive culture) times survives in the word pecuniary, which comes from the Latin pecus, meaning cattle. The development of money has been marked by repeated innovations in the objects used as money.

Metallic money

      Metals (metal) have been used as money throughout history. As Aristotle observed, the various necessities of life are not easily carried about; hence people agreed to employ in their dealings with each other something that was intrinsically useful and easily applicable to the purposes of life—for example, iron, silver, and the like. The value of the metal was at first measured by weight, but in time governments or sovereigns put a stamp upon it to avoid the trouble of weighing it and to make the value known at sight.

      The use of metal for money can be traced back to Babylon more than 2000 years BC, but standardization and certification in the form of coinage (coin) did not occur except perhaps in isolated instances until the 7th century BC. Historians generally ascribe the first use of coined money to Croesus, king of Lydia, a state in Anatolia. The earliest coins (coin) were made of electrum, a natural mixture of gold and silver, and were crude, bean-shaped ingots bearing a primitive punch mark certifying to either weight or fineness or both.

      The use of coins enabled payment to be by “tale,” or count, rather than weight, greatly facilitating commerce. But this in turn encouraged “clipping” (shaving off tiny slivers from the sides or edges of coins) and “sweating” (shaking a bunch of coins together in a leather bag and collecting the dust that was thereby knocked off) in the hope of passing on the lighter coin at its face value. The resulting economic situation was described by Gresham's law (that “bad money drives out good” when there is a fixed rate of exchange between them): heavy, good coins were held for their metallic value, while light coins were passed on to others. In time the coins became lighter and lighter and prices higher and higher. As a means of correcting this problem, payment by weight would be resumed for large transactions, and there would be pressure for recoinage. These particular defects were largely ended by the “milling” of coins (making serrations around the circumference of a coin), which began in the late 17th century.

      A more serious problem occurred when the sovereign would attempt to benefit from the monopoly of coinage. In this respect, Greek and Roman experience offers an interesting contrast. Solon, on taking office in Athens in 594 BC, did institute a partial debasement of the currency. For the next four centuries (until the absorption of Greece into the Roman Empire) the Athenian drachma had an almost constant silver content (67 grains of fine silver until Alexander, 65 grains thereafter) and became the standard coin of trade in Greece and in much of Asia and Europe as well. Even after the Roman conquest (ancient Rome) of the Mediterranean peninsula in roughly the 2nd century BC, the drachma continued to be minted and widely used.

      The Roman (ancient Rome) experience was very different. Not long after the silver denarius, patterned after the Greek drachma, was introduced about 212 BC, the prior copper coinage (aes, or libra) began to be debased until, by the onset of the empire, its weight had been reduced from 1 pound (about 450 grams) to half an ounce (about 15 grams). By contrast the silver denarius and the gold aureus (introduced about 87 BC) suffered only minor debasement until the time of Nero (AD 54), when almost continuous tampering with the coinage began. The metal content of the gold and silver coins was reduced, while the proportion of alloy was increased to three-fourths or more of its weight. Debasement in Rome (as ever since) used the state's profit from money creation to cover its inability or unwillingness to finance its expenditures through explicit taxes. But the debasement in turn raised prices, worsened Rome's economic situation, and contributed to the collapse of the empire.

Paper money

 Experience had shown that carrying large quantities of gold, silver, or other metals proved inconvenient and risked loss or theft. The first use of paper money occurred in China more than 1,000 years ago. By the late 18th and early 19th centuries paper money and banknotes had spread to other parts of the world. The bulk of the money in use came to consist not of actual gold or silver but of fiduciary money—promises to pay specified amounts of gold and silver. These promises were initially issued by individuals or companies as banknotes or as the transferable book entries that came to be called deposits. Although deposits and banknotes began as claims to gold or silver on deposit at a bank or with a merchant, this later changed. Knowing that everyone would not claim his or her balance at once, the banker (or merchant) could issue more claims to the gold and silver than the amount held in safekeeping. Bankers could then invest the difference or lend it at interest. In periods of distress, however, when borrowers did not repay their loans or in case of overissue, the banks could fail.

      Gradually, governments assumed a supervisory role. They specified legal tender, defining the type of payment that legally discharged a debt when offered to the creditor and that could be used to pay taxes. Governments also set the weight and metallic composition of coins. Later they replaced fiduciary paper money—promises to pay in gold or silver—with fiat paper money—that is, notes that are issued on the “fiat” of the sovereign government, are specified to be so many dollars, pounds, or yen, etc., and are legal tender but are not promises to pay something else.

      The first large-scale issue of paper money in a Western country occurred in France in the early 18th century. Subsequently, the French Revolutionary government issued assignats from 1789 to 1796. Similarly, the American colonies and later the Continental Congress issued bills of credit that could be used in making payments. Yet these and other early experiments gave fiat money a deservedly bad name. The money was overissued, and prices rose drastically until the money became worthless or was redeemed in metallic money (or promises to pay metallic money) at a small fraction of its initial value.

      Subsequent issues of fiat money in the major countries during the 19th century were temporary departures from a metallic standard. In Great Britain, for example, the government suspended payment of gold for all outstanding banknotes during the Napoleonic Wars (1797–1815). To finance the war, the government issued fiat paper money. Prices in Great Britain doubled as a result, and gold coin and bullion became more expensive in terms of paper. To restore the gold standard at the former gold price, the government deflated the price level by reducing the quantity of money. In 1821 Great Britain restored the gold standard. Similarly, during the American Civil War the U.S. (United States) government suspended convertibility of Union currency (greenbacks) into specie (gold or silver coin), and resumption did not occur until 1879 (see specie payment). At its peak in 1864, the greenback price of gold, nominally equivalent to $100, reached more than $250.

      Episodes of this kind, which were repeated in many countries, convinced the public that war brings inflation and that the aftermath of war brings deflation and depression. This sequence is not inevitable. It reflected 19th-century experience under metallic money standards. Typically, wars required increased government spending and budget deficits. Governments suspended the metallic (gold) standard and financed their deficits by borrowing and printing paper money. Prices rose.

      Throughout history, the price of gold would be far above its prewar value when wartime spending and inflation ended. To restore the metallic standard to the prewar price of gold in paper money, prices quoted in paper money had to fall. The alternative was to accept the increased price of gold in paper money by devaluing the currency (that is, reducing money's purchasing power). After World War I, the British and the United States governments forced prices to fall, but many other countries devalued their currencies against gold. After World War II, all major countries accepted the higher wartime price level, and most devalued their currencies to avoid deflation and depression.

      The widespread use of paper money brought other problems. Since the cost of producing paper money is far lower than its exchange value, forgery is common (it cost about 4 cents to produce one piece of U.S. paper currency in 1999). Later the development of copying machines necessitated changes in paper and the use of metallic strips and other devices to make forgery more difficult. In addition, the use of machines to identify, count, or change currency increased the need for tests to identify genuine currency.

Standards of value

      In the Middle Ages, when money consisted primarily of coins, silver and gold coins circulated simultaneously. As governments came increasingly to take over the coinage and especially as fiduciary money was introduced, they specified their nominal (face value) monetary units in terms of fixed weights of either silver or gold. Some adopted a national bimetallic (bimetallism) standard, with fixed weights for both gold and silver based on their relative values on a given date—for example, 15 ounces of silver equal 1 ounce of gold (see bimetallism). As the prices changed, the phenomenon associated with Gresham's law assured that the bimetallic standard degenerated into a monometallic standard. If, for example, the quantity of silver designated as the monetary equivalent of 1 ounce of gold (15 to 1) was less than the quantity that could be purchased in the market for 1 ounce of gold (say 16 to 1), no one would bring gold to be coined. Holders of gold could instead profit by buying silver in the market, receiving 16 ounces for each ounce of gold; they would then take 15 ounces of silver to the mint to be coined and accept payment in gold.

      Continuing this profitable exchange drained gold from the mint, leaving the mint with silver coinage. In this example silver, the cheaper metal in the market, “drove out” gold and became the standard. This happened in most of the countries of Europe, so that by the early 19th century all were effectively on a silver standard. In Britain (United Kingdom), on the other hand, the ratio established in the 18th century on the advice of Sir Isaac Newton (Newton, Sir Isaac), then serving as master of the mint, overvalued gold and therefore led to an effective gold standard. In the United States a ratio of 15 ounces of silver to 1 ounce of gold was set in 1792. This ratio overvalued silver, so silver became the standard. Then in 1834 the ratio was altered to 16 to 1, which overvalued gold, so gold again became the standard.

The gold standard

      The great gold discoveries in California and Australia in the 1840s and '50s produced a temporary decline in the value of gold in terms of silver. This price change, plus the dominance of Britain in international finance, led to a widespread shift from a silver standard to a gold standard. Germany adopted gold as its standard in 1871–73, the Latin Monetary Union (France, Italy, Belgium, Switzerland) did so in 1873–74, and the Scandinavian Union (Denmark, Norway, and Sweden) and The Netherlands followed in 1875–76. By the final decades of the century, silver remained dominant only in the Far East (China, in particular). Elsewhere the gold standard reigned. (See also Free Silver Movement.)

      The early 20th century was the great era of the international gold standard. Gold coins circulated in most of the world; paper money, whether issued by private banks or by governments, was convertible on demand into gold coins or gold bullion at an official price (with perhaps the addition of a small fee), while bank deposits were convertible into either gold coin or paper currency that was itself convertible into gold. In a few countries a minor variant prevailed—the so-called gold exchange standard (gold-exchange standard), under which a country's reserves included not only gold but also currencies of other countries that were convertible into gold. Currencies were exchanged at a fixed price into the currency of another country (usually the British pound sterling) that was itself convertible into gold.

      The prevalence of the gold standard meant that there was, in effect, a single world money called by different names in different countries. A U.S. (United States) dollar, for example, was defined as 23.22 grains of pure gold (25.8 grains of gold 9/10 fine). A British pound sterling was defined as 113.00 grains of pure gold (123.274 grains of gold 11/12 fine). Accordingly, 1 British pound equaled 4.8665 U.S. dollars (dollar) (113.00/23.22) at the official parity. The actual exchange rate could deviate from this value only by an amount that corresponded to the cost of shipping gold. If the price of the pound sterling in terms of dollars greatly exceeded this parity price in the foreign exchange market, someone in New York City who had a debt to pay in London might find that, rather than buying the needed pounds on the market, it was cheaper to get gold for dollars at a bank or from the U.S. subtreasury, ship the gold to London, and get pounds for the gold from the Bank of England. The potential for such an exchange set an upper limit to the exchange rate. Similarly, the cost of shipping gold from Britain to the United States set a lower limit. These limits were known as the gold points.

      Under such an international gold standard, the quantity of money (money supply) in each country was determined by an adjustment process known as the price-specie-flow adjustment mechanism. This process, analyzed by 18th- and 19th-century economists such as David Hume (Hume, David), John Stuart Mill (Mill, John Stuart), and Henry Thornton (Thornton, Henry), occurred as follows: a rise in a particular country's quantity of money would tend to raise prices in that country relative to prices in other countries. This rise in prices would consequently discourage exports while encouraging imports. The decreased supply of foreign currency (from the sale of fewer exports) plus the increased demand for foreign currency (to pay for imports) would tend to raise the price of foreign currency in terms of domestic currency. As soon as this price hit the upper gold point, gold would be shipped out of the country to other countries. The decline in the amount of gold would produce in turn a reduction in the total amount of money, because banks and government institutions, seeing their gold reserves decline, would want to protect themselves against further demands by reducing the claims against gold that were outstanding. This would tend to lower prices at home. The influx of gold abroad would have the opposite effect, increasing the quantity of money there and raising prices. These adjustments would continue until the gold flow ceased or was reversed.

      Precisely the same mechanism operates within a unified currency area. That mechanism determines how much money there is in Illinois compared with how much there is in other U.S. states or how much there is in Wales compared with how much there is in other parts of the United Kingdom. Because the gold standard was so prevalent in the early 20th century, most of the commercial world operated as a unified currency area. One advantage of such widespread adherence to the gold standard was its ability to limit a national government's power to engage in irresponsible monetary expansion. This was also its great disadvantage. In an era of big government and of full-employment policies, a real gold standard would tie the hands of governments in one of the most important areas of policy—that of monetary policy.

The decline of gold

       World War I effectively ended the real international gold standard. Most belligerent nations suspended the free convertibility of gold. The United States, even after its entry into the war, maintained convertibility but embargoed gold exports. For a few years after the end of the war, most countries had inconvertible national paper standards—inconvertible in that paper money was not convertible into gold or silver. The exchange rate between any two currencies was a market rate that fluctuated from time to time. This was regarded as a temporary phenomenon, like the British suspension of gold payments during the Napoleonic era or the U.S. suspension during the Civil War greenback period (see Greenback movement). The great aim was a restoration of the prewar gold standard. Since price levels had increased in all countries during the war, countries had to choose deflation or devaluation to restore the gold standard. This effort dominated monetary developments during the 1920s.

      Britain, still a major financial power, chose deflation. Winston Churchill (Churchill, Sir Winston), chancellor of the Exchequer in 1925, decided to follow prevailing financial opinion and adopt the prewar parity (i.e., to define a pound sterling once again as equal to 123.274 grains of gold 11/12 fine). This produced exchange rates that, at the existing prices in Britain, overvalued the pound and so tended to produce gold outflows, especially after France chose devaluation and returned to gold in 1928 at a parity that undervalued the franc. By 1929 the important currencies of the world, and most of the less important ones, were again linked to gold.

      The gold standard that was restored, however, was a far cry from the prewar gold standard. The establishment of the Federal Reserve System in the United States in 1913 introduced an additional link in the international specie-flow mechanism. That mechanism no longer operated automatically. It operated only if the Federal Reserve chose to let it do so, and the Federal Reserve did not so choose; to prevent domestic prices from rising, it offset the effect on the quantity of money resulting from an increase in gold. (In effect it “sterilized” the monetary effect.)

      France made a similar choice. With the franc undervalued, gold flowed to France. The French government sold the foreign exchange for gold, draining gold from Britain and other gold standard countries. The two countries receiving gold, the United States and France, did not permit gold inflows to raise their price levels. Countries that lost gold had to deflate. Thus, the gold exchange standard forced deflation and unemployment on much of the world economy. By the summer of 1929, recessions (recession) were under way in Great Britain and Germany. In August the United States joined the recession that became the Great Depression.

      In 1931 Japan and Great Britain left the gold standard, followed by the Scandinavian countries and many of the countries in the British Empire, including Canada. The United States followed in 1933, restoring a fixed—but higher—dollar price for gold, $35 an ounce in January 1934, but barring U.S. citizens from owning gold. France, Switzerland, Italy, and Belgium left the gold standard in 1936. Although it was not clear at the time, that was the end of the gold standard.

The Bretton Woods system

      During World War II, Great Britain and the United States outlined the postwar monetary system. Their plan, approved by more than 40 countries at the Bretton Woods Conference in July 1944, aimed to correct the perceived deficiencies of the interwar gold exchange standard. These included the volatility of floating exchange rates, the inflexibility of fixed exchange rates, and reliance on an adjustment mechanism for countries with payment surpluses or deficits; these problems were often resolved by recession and deflation in deficit countries coupled with expansion and inflation in surplus countries. The agreement that resulted from the conference led to the creation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which countries joined by paying a subscription. Members agreed to maintain a system of fixed but adjustable exchange rates. Countries with payment deficits could borrow from the fund, while those with surpluses would lend. If deficits or surpluses persisted, the agreement provided for changes in exchange rates. The IMF began operations in 1947, with the U.S. dollar serving as the fund's reserve currency and the price of gold fixed at $35 per ounce. The U.S. agreed to maintain that price by buying or selling gold.

      Postwar recovery, low inflation, growth of trade and payments, and the buildup of international reserves in industrial countries permitted the new system to come into full operation at the end of 1958. Although a vestigial tie to gold remained with the gold price staying at $35 per ounce, the Bretton Woods system essentially put the market economies of the world on a dollar standard—in other words, the U.S. dollar served as the world's principal currency, and countries held most of their reserves in interest-bearing dollar securities.

      The dollar became the most widely used currency in international trade, even in trade between countries other than the United States. It was the unit in which countries expressed their exchange rate. Countries maintained their “official” exchange rates by buying and selling U.S. dollars and held dollars as their primary reserve currency for that purpose. The existence of a dollar standard did not prevent other countries from changing their exchange rates, just as the gold standard did not prevent other currencies from “devaluing” or “appreciating” in terms of gold. In time, however, the fixed price of gold became increasingly difficult for the United States to maintain. Many countries devalued or revalued their currencies, including major economic powers such as the United Kingdom (in 1967), Germany, and France (both in 1969). Yet in practice the United States was not free to determine its own exchange rate or its balance of payments position. Monetary expansion in the United States provided reserves for other countries; monetary contraction absorbed reserves. Central banks (central bank) could convert dollars into gold, and they did, especially in the early years. As the stock of dollars held by central banks outside the United States rose and the U.S. gold stock dwindled, the United States could not honour its commitment to pay gold for dollars. The Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates appeared doomed. Governments and central banks tried for years to find a way to extend its life, but they could not agree on a solution. The end came on August 15, 1971, when President Richard M. Nixon (Nixon, Richard M.) announced that the United States would no longer sell gold.

After Bretton Woods

      This breakdown of the fixed exchange rate system ended each country's obligation to maintain a fixed price for its currency against gold or other currencies. Under Bretton Woods, countries had bought when the exchange rate fell and sold when it rose; now national currencies floated, meaning that the exchange rate rose or fell with market demand. If the exchange rate appreciated, buyers received fewer units of domestic money in exchange for a unit of their own currency. Purchasers of domestic goods and assets then faced higher prices. Conversely, if the currency depreciated, domestic goods and assets became cheaper for foreigners. Countries that were heavily dependent on foreign trade disliked the frequent changes in price and costs under the new floating rates. Governments or their central banks often intervened to slow nominal (market) exchange rate changes. Historically, however, these interventions have been effective only against temporary changes.

      In the long run, a country's exchange rate depends on such fundamental factors as relative productivity growth, opportunities for investment, the public's willingness to save, and monetary and fiscal policies. These fundamental factors are at work whether the country has a fixed or a floating exchange rate and whether the authorities intervene to adjust the exchange rate or slow its changes. As long as markets for goods, services, assets, and foreign exchange remain open, the country must adjust.

      The principal difference between fixed and floating exchange rates is how the country adjusts. With fixed exchange rates, adjustment occurs mainly by changing costs and prices of the myriad commodities that a country produces and consumes. Under floating exchange rates, the adjustment occurs mainly by changing the nominal exchange rate. For example, if Brazil's monetary policy increases Brazilian inflation, domestic prices of shoes, cocoa, and almost everything else will rise. With a fixed exchange rate, the price rise deters exports and purchases by foreigners. Demand shifts from Brazil to other countries, lowering demand and reducing payments for Brazilian products. This decreases Brazil's money stock. The reduction in money and the fall in demand slow the Brazilian economy, thereby reducing Brazilian prices. With a floating exchange rate, however, the adjustment comes about by reducing the demand for Brazilian currency and depreciating the exchange rate, thereby reducing the prices paid by foreigners.

      Adjustment comes in many other ways. In this hypothetical example, Brazilians may decide to invest more abroad, or foreigners may decide to invest less in Brazil. The long-run outcome will be the same, however, because buyers and sellers do not care about the nominal exchange rate (the official rate set by national governments under a fixed exchange rate or set by the market under floating rates). What matters is the so-called real exchange rate—the nominal exchange rate adjusted by prices at home and abroad. The buyer of Brazilian shoes in England cares only about the cost of the shoes in local currency—that is, British pounds. The Brazilian price of shoes is multiplied by the exchange rate to get the U.K. price. Under floating exchange rates, the exchange rate adjusts to keep a country's commodities competitive on the world market.

      After the Bretton Woods system ended in 1973, most countries allowed their currencies to float, but this situation soon changed. Generally, small countries with relatively large trade sectors disliked floating rates. They wanted to avoid the often transitory but sometimes large changes in prices and costs arising in the foreign exchange market. Many of the smaller Asian economies, along with countries in Central America and the Caribbean, fixed their exchange rates to the U.S. dollar. Countries such as The Netherlands and Austria, both of which traded heavily with West Germany, soon fixed their exchange rates to the German mark. These countries ceased conducting independent central bank policy, so that when the Bundesbank or the U.S. Federal Reserve changed interest rates, countries that fixed their exchange rate to the mark or the dollar changed their interest rates as well.

      A country on a fixed exchange rate sacrifices independent monetary policy. In some cases this may be a necessary sacrifice, because a small country that is open to external trade has little scope for independent monetary policy. It cannot influence most of the prices at which its citizens buy and sell. If its central bank or government inflates, its currency depreciates to bring its domestic prices back to equivalent world market levels. Even a large country cannot maintain an independent monetary policy if its exchange rate is fixed and its capital market remains open to inflows and outflows. Given the reduced reliance on capital controls, many countries abandoned fixed exchange rates in the 1980s as a means of preserving some power over domestic monetary policy. This trend reversed somewhat toward the end of the 20th century.

      Large economies such as those of the United States, Japan, and Great Britain continued to float their currencies, as did Switzerland and Canada—both relatively small economies that have preferred to retain some influence over domestic monetary conditions. Hong Kong made the opposite choice. Although it was a British colony at the time and later a part of China, it chose to fix its exchange rate to the U.S. dollar. The method it revived was a 19th-century system known as a currency board. In such a case there is no central bank and the exchange rate is fixed. Local banks increase the number of Hong Kong dollars only when they receive additional U.S. dollars, and they reduce the stock of Hong Kong dollars when U.S. dollar holdings decline. Hong Kong's experience with its currency board encouraged a few, mainly small countries to follow its lead. Some stepped even further away from autonomous policy by adopting the U.S. dollar as their domestic currency. The most notable change of this general type was the decision by most of the continental European countries to surrender their local currencies in exchange for a new common currency, the euro.

The euro

      Western European countries have traditionally done much of their trading with each other. Soon after the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, some of these countries experimented with fixed exchange rates within their group. Before 1997, however, all such attempts had failed within a few years of their inception. Inter-European trade continued to expand under the aegis of the European Community (EC). Growth of trade fostered European economic integration and encouraged steps toward political integration in addition to the free exchange of goods, labour, and finance. In 1991, 12 of the 15 nations signing the Treaty on European Union (the Maastricht Treaty) had agreed to a decade of adjustment toward a single currency. The treaty took effect in 1993. Exchange rates were fixed “permanently and irrevocably” for the participating countries (tellingly, the treaty did not provide for a country's withdrawal from the system). In 1995 the new currency was named the “euro.”

      The European Central Bank (ECB) was established in 1998 in Frankfurt, Germany, with a mandate from member governments to maintain price stability. Each member country receives a seat on the board of the ECB. In part because Germany sacrificed its dominant role in European monetary policy, the new arrangements provided increased opportunity for smaller countries such as The Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria to determine policy. However, 3 of the then 15 member states of the European Union (EU)—Denmark, Sweden, and the United Kingdom—decided either to remain outside or to delay entry into monetary union.

      The new system began operation on January 1, 1999. For its first three years the euro functioned as a unit of account but not a medium of exchange. During this transition period the values of debts, assets, and prices of goods and services were expressed in euros as well as in the local currency. In January 2002, euro notes and coins began circulating, replacing national currencies such as the French franc, German mark, or Italian lira. The euro floated against all nonmember currencies.

Modern monetary systems

      Domestic monetary systems are today very much alike in all the major countries of the world. They have three levels: (1) the holders of money (the “public”), which comprise individuals, businesses, and governmental units, (2) commercial banks (commercial bank) (private or government-owned), which borrow from the public, mainly by taking their deposits, and make loans to individuals, firms, or governments, and (3) central banks (central bank), which have a monopoly on the issue of certain types of money, serve as the bankers for the central government and the commercial banks, and have the power to determine the quantity of money. The public holds its money in two ways: as currency (including coin) and as bank deposits.

currency

      In most countries the bulk of the currency consists of notes issued by the central bank. In the United Kingdom these are Bank of England notes; in the United States, Federal Reserve notes; and so on. It is hard to say precisely what “issued by the central bank” means. In the United States, for example, the currency bears the words “Federal Reserve Note,” but these notes are not obligations of the Federal Reserve banks in any meaningful sense. The holder who presents them to a Federal Reserve bank has no right to anything except other pieces of paper adding up to the same face value. The situation is much the same in most other countries. The other major item of currency held by the public is coin. In almost all countries this is token coin, whose worth as metal is much less than its face value.

      In countries with a history of high inflation, the public may choose to use foreign currency as a medium of exchange and a standard of value. The U.S. dollar has been chosen most often for these purposes, and, although other currencies have had lower average inflation rates than the dollar in the years since World War II, the dollar compensates by having lower costs of information and recognition than any other currency. Societies agree on the use of dollars not by a formal decision but from knowledge that others recognize the dollar and accept it as a means of payment. At the turn of the 21st century, estimates suggested that as much as two-thirds of all dollars in circulation were found outside the United States. Dollars could be found in use in Russia, Argentina, and many other Latin American and Asian countries.

Bank deposits

      In addition to currency, bank deposits are counted as part of the money holdings of the public. In the 19th century most economists regarded only currency and coin, including gold and other metals, as “money.” They treated deposits as claims to money. As deposits became more and more widely held and as a larger fraction of transactions were made by check, economists started to include not the checks but the deposits they transferred as money on a par with currency and coin.

      The definition of money has been the subject of much dispute. The chief point at issue is which categories of bank deposits can be called “money” and which should be regarded as “near money” (liquid assets that can be converted to cash). Everyone includes currency. Many economists include as money only deposits transferable by check (demand deposits)—in the United States the sum of currency and checking deposits is known as M1. Other economists include nonchecking deposits, such as “time deposits” in commercial banks. In the United States, the addition of these deposits to M1 represents a measure of the money supply known as M2. Still other economists include deposits in other financial institutions, such as savings banks, savings and loan associations, and so on.

      The term deposits is highly misleading. It connotes something deposited for safekeeping, like currency in a safe-deposit box. Bank deposits are not like that. When one brings currency to a bank for deposit, the bank does not put the currency in a vault and keep it there. It may put a small fraction of the currency in the vault as reserves, but it will lend most of it to someone else or will buy an investment such as a bond or some other security. As part of the inducement to depositors to lend it money, a bank provides facilities for transferring demand deposits from one person to another by check.

      The deposits of commercial banks are assets of their holders but are liabilities of the banks. The assets of the banks consist of “reserves” (currency plus deposits at other banks, including the central bank) and “earning assets” (loans plus investments in the form of bonds and other securities). The banks' reserves are only a small fraction of the aggregate (total) deposits. Early in the history of banking, each bank determined its own level of reserves by judging the likelihood of demands for withdrawals of deposits. Now reserve amounts are determined through government regulation.

      The growth of deposits enabled the total quantity of money (including deposits) to be larger than the total sum available to be held as reserves. A bank that received, say, $100 in gold might add 25 percent of that sum, or $25, to its reserves and lend out $75. But the recipient of the $75 loan would spend it. Some of those who received gold this way would hold it as gold, but others would deposit it in a bank. For example, if two-thirds was redeposited, on average, some bank or banks would find $50 added to deposits and to reserves. The receiving bank would repeat the process, adding $12.50 (25 percent of $50) to its reserves and lending out $37.50. When this process worked itself out fully, total deposits would have increased by $200, bank reserves would have increased by $50, and $50 of the initial $100 deposited would have been retained as “currency outside banks.” There would be $150 more money in total than before (deposits up by $200, currency outside banks down by $50). Although no individual bank created money, the system as a whole did. This multiple expansion process lies at the heart of the modern monetary system.

Credit and money

      Centuries of innovation have changed the ways in which the public conducts transactions. Credit cards (credit card), debit cards, and automatic transfers are among the many innovations that emerged in the years after World War II.

Credit and debit cards

      A credit card is not money. It provides an efficient way to obtain credit through a bank or financial institution. It is efficient because it obviates the seller's need to know about the credit standing and repayment habits of the borrower. For a fee that each subscribing merchant agrees to pay, the bank issues the credit card, makes a loan to the buyer, and pays the merchant promptly. The buyer then has a debt that he or she settles by making payment to the credit card company. Instead of carrying more money, or making credit arrangements with many merchants, the buyer makes a single payment for purchases from many merchants. The balance can be paid in full, usually on a monthly basis, or the buyer can pay a fraction of the total debt, with interest charged on the remaining balance.

      Before credit cards existed, a buyer could arrange a loan at a bank. The bank would then credit the buyer's deposit account, allowing the buyer to pay for his or her purchases by writing checks. Under this arrangement the merchant bore more of the costs of collecting payment and the costs of acquiring information about the buyer's credit standing. With credit cards, the issuing company, often a bank, bears many of these costs, passing some of the expenses along to merchants through the usage fee.

      A debit card differs from a credit card in the way the debt is paid. The issuing bank deducts the payment from the customer's account at the time of purchase. The bank's loan is paid immediately, but the merchant receives payment in the same way as with the use of a credit card. Risk to the lending institution is reduced because the electronic transmission of information permits the bank to refuse payment if the buyer's deposit balance is insufficient.

Electronic money

      Items used as money in modern financial systems possess various attributes that reduce costs or increase convenience. Units of money are readily divisible, easily transported and transferred, and recognized instantly. Legal tender status guarantees final settlement. Currency protects anonymity, avoids record keeping, and permits lower costs of payment. But currency can be lost, stolen, or forged, so it is used most often for relatively small transactions or where anonymity is valued.

      Information processing reduces costs of transfer, record keeping, and the acquisition of information. “Electronic money” is the name given to several different ways in which the public and financial and nonfinancial firms use electronic transfers as part of the payments system. Since most of these transfers do not introduce a new medium of exchange (i.e., money), electronic transfer is a more appropriate name than electronic money. (See also e-commerce.)

      Four very different types of transfer can be distinguished. First, depositors can use electronic funds transfers (EFTs) to withdraw currency from their accounts using automated teller machines (ATMs). In this way an ATM withdrawal works like a debit card. ATMs also allow users to deposit checks into their accounts or repay bank loans. While they do not replace the assets used as money, ATMs make money more readily available and more convenient to use by accepting transactions even when banks are closed, be it on weekends or holidays or at any time of the day. ATMs also overcome geographic and national boundaries by allowing travelers to conduct transactions in many parts of the world.

      The second form of EFT, “smart cards” (also known as stored-value cards), contain a computer chip that can make and receive payments while recording each new balance on the card. Users purchase the smart card (usually with currency or deposits) and can use it in place of currency. The issuer of the smart card holds the balance (float) and thus earns interest that may pay for maintaining the system. Most often the cards have a single purpose or use, such as making telephone calls, paying parking meters, or riding urban transit systems. They retain some of the anonymity of currency, but they are not “generally accepted” as a means of payment beyond their dedicated purpose. There has been considerable speculation that smart cards would replace currency and bring in the “cashless society,” but there are obstacles, the primary one being that the maintenance of a generalized transfer system is more costly than using the government's currency. Either producers must find a way to record and transfer balances from many users to many payees, or users must purchase many special-purpose cards.

      The automated clearinghouse (ACH) is the third alternative means of making deposits and paying bills. ACH networks transfer existing deposit balances, avoid the use of checks, and speed payments and settlement. In addition, many large payments (such as those to settle securities or foreign exchange transactions between financial institutions) are made through electronic transfer systems that “net” (determine a balance of) the total payments and receipts; they then transfer central bank reserves or clearinghouse deposits to fund the net settlement. Some transactions between creditors and debtors give rise to claims against commodities or financial assets. These may at first be barter transactions that are not settled promptly by paying conventional money. Such transactions economize on cash balances and increase the velocity, or rate of turnover, of money.

      As technologies for individual users developed, banks permitted depositors to pay their bills by transferring funds from their account to the creditor's account. This fourth type of electronic funds transfer reduces costs by eliminating paper checks.

Central banking (central bank)

      Modern banking systems hold fractional reserves against deposits. If many depositors choose to withdraw their deposits as currency, the size of the banking system shrinks. A run on the bank—a sudden withdrawal of deposits as currency or, in earlier times, as gold or silver—can cause banks to run out of reserves and force their closure. Bank panics (panic) of this kind occurred many times. After 1866 in Great Britain, but not until 1934 in the United States, did governments learn to use the central bank (or some other government institution) to prevent bank runs.

      The Bank of England (England, Bank of) was the first modern central bank, serving as the model for many others, such as the Bank of Japan, the Bank of France (France, Banque de), and the U.S. Federal Reserve. It was established as a private bank in 1694 but by the mid-19th century had become largely an agency of the government. In 1946 the U.K. government nationalized the Bank of England. The Bank of France was established as a governmental institution by Napoleon in 1800. In the United States, the 12 Federal Reserve banks, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, D.C., constitute the Federal Reserve System. The reserve banks are technically owned by their member commercial banks, but this is a pure formality. Member banks get only a fixed annual percentage dividend on their stock and have no real power over the bank's policy decisions. For all intents and purposes, the Federal Reserve is an independent governmental agency.

      The notes issued by a central bank (or other governmental agency) plus deposits at the central bank are called the “monetary base.” When held as bank reserves, each dollar, pound, or euro becomes the base for several dollars, pounds, or euros of commercial bank loans and deposits. Earlier in the history of money, the size of the monetary base was limited by the amount of gold or silver owned. Today there is no longer a formal limit to the amount of notes and deposits that a central bank may have as liabilities.

      The way in which a central bank increases or decreases the monetary base is, typically, by making loans (discounting) or by buying and selling government securities (security) (open-market operations (open-market operation)) or foreign assets. If, for example, the Federal Reserve System purchases $1 million of government securities, it pays for these securities by drawing a check on itself, thereby adding $1 million to its assets and $1 million to its liabilities. The seller can take the check to a Federal Reserve bank, which will exchange it for $1 million in Federal Reserve notes. Or the seller may deposit the check at a commercial bank, and the bank may in turn present it to a Federal Reserve bank. The latter “pays” the check by making an entry on its books increasing that bank's deposits by $1 million. The commercial bank may, in turn, transfer this sum to a borrower, who again will convert it into Federal Reserve notes or deposit it.

      The important point is that these bookkeeping operations simply record a process whereby the central bank has created, out of thin air as it were, additional base money (currency held by the public plus sums deposited with a reserve bank)—the direct counterpart of printing Federal Reserve notes. Similarly, if the central bank sells government securities, it decreases base money. (See also monetary policy.)

      The total quantity of money at any time depends on several factors, including the stock of base money, the public's preference regarding the relative amounts of money it wishes to hold as currency and as deposits, and the preferences of banks regarding the ratio they wish to maintain between their reserves and their deposits. (The reserve ratio is, of course, dominated by legal reserve requirements, where they exist.) Banks hold treasury bills and other short-term assets to provide additional liquidity, but they also hold some reserves in the form of currency so that they may cash checks or pay withdrawals from their ATMs.

      On a much broader scale, it follows that a central bank can vary the total face value of money by controlling the amount of the monetary base and by other less important means. The major problem of modern monetary policy centres on how a central bank should use this power.

      Money has an “internal” and “external” price. The internal price is the price level of domestic goods and services. The external price is the nominal, or market, exchange rate. The principal responsibility of a modern central bank differs according to the choice of monetary standard. If the country has a fixed exchange rate, the central bank buys or sells foreign exchange on demand to maintain stability in the rate. When sales by the central bank are too brisk, the growth of the monetary base decreases, the quantity of money and credit declines, and interest rates increase. The rise in interest rates attracts foreign investors and deters local investors from investing abroad. Also, the increase in interest rates slows domestic expansion and reduces upward pressure on domestic prices. On the other hand, when the central bank's purchases are too brisk, money growth increases and interest rates fall, thereby inducing domestic expansion and stimulating an increase in prices.

      If a country has a floating exchange rate, it must choose a policy to go with the floating rate. At times in the past, many countries expected their central bank to pursue several different objectives. Eventually, countries recognized that this was an error because it focused the central bank on short-term goals at the expense of longer-term price stability. After high inflation in Europe and the United States in the 1970s and the hyperinflation (inflation exceeding 50 percent) in Latin America and Israel in the 1980s, many central banks and governments recognized an old truth: the main objective of a central bank under floating rates should be to stabilize domestic price levels, thereby maintaining the internal value of money.

      Increased awareness of this primary responsibility led to lower rates of inflation in the 1980s and '90s, although central banks continued to be concerned about employment and recession in addition to price stability. Several adopted rules or procedures to control money growth by adjusting interest rates in response to both inflation and deviations in output from the long-term growth rate. Following the examples of New Zealand and Great Britain, several countries adopted inflation targets, typically based on time frames of one or two years, and then adjusted policy to reach these targets. Under the Maastricht Treaty of the European Union, the European Central Bank has a mandate to maintain price stability. The ECB has interpreted this mandate to mean inflation of 2 percent or less.

Monetary theory

      The relation between money and what it will buy has always been a central issue of monetary theory. Crucial to understanding this matter is the distinction economists make between face (or nominal) values and real values—that is, between official values stated in current dollars, pesos, pounds, yen, euros, and so on and the same quantities adjusted by the price level. The latter is a “real” value, meaning the real quantity of goods, services, and assets that money will buy. This can also be understood as the real purchasing power of the money stock.

The demand for money

      Economists have generally held that the level of prices is determined mainly by the quantity of money. But precisely how the quantity of money affects the level of prices and what the effects are of changes in the quantity of money have been conceptualized in different ways at different times. There are two principal issues to consider. First, what determines the demand for money (the amount of money that the public willingly holds)? And second, how do changes in the stock of money affect the price level and other nominal values?

      A government or its central bank determines the nominal quantity of money that circulates and is held, but the public determines money's real value. If the central bank provides more money than the public wants to hold, the public spends the excess on goods, services, or assets. While the additional spending cannot reduce the nominal money stock, this spending will bid up the prices of nonmoney objects, because too much money is chasing the limited stock of goods and assets. The subsequent rise in prices will lower the real value of the money stock until the public possesses the real value it desires to hold in the aggregate. Conversely, if the central bank provides less money than the public desires to hold, spending slows. Prices fall, thereby raising the quantity of real balances.

      The amount of desired real balances for a country (that is, the real value of money within a country) is not a fixed number. It depends on the opportunity cost of holding money, the direct return earned when holding money, and income or wealth. A short-term interest rate is the usual measure of the opportunity cost of holding money, but money holders participate in many different markets, so other relative prices may affect real money holdings. inflation increases market interest rates and thus raises the opportunity cost of holding money. In countries experiencing rapid inflation, the real value of the money stock shrinks because people choose to hold less of their wealth in this form. If inflation is brought to a halt, however, the opportunity cost of holding money will drop, and real balances will rise.

      Inflation has a particularly strong effect on the demand for money because currency pays no interest, and checking deposits typically receive little or no interest return. (Most of the direct return to money balances takes the form of transaction services and convenience.) As the opposite of inflation, deflation raises the return on money that is held by giving each nominal unit greater command over goods and assets. Consumer spending will thus decrease as people hold onto their money in expectation of lower prices in the future. Other phenomena affecting the amount of money that people willingly hold include income, wealth, and some measure of transactions volume. Increases in the real value of these measures will be followed by increases in the amount of real balances.

Transmission of monetary changes

Quantity theory of money

      From the very earliest systematic work on economics, observers have noted a relationship between the stock of money and the price level. Often the relation was one of proportionality, as, for example, when the price level rose in direct proportion to an increase in money. By the middle of the 18th century, systematic observers such as John Locke (Locke, John) recognized that changes in money affect the output of real goods and services, but they also found that this effect vanishes once prices adjust fully to the change in money.

      An early formulation of this insight was expressed in the quantity theory of money, which hinges on the distinction between the nominal (face) and real values, or quantity, of money. The nominal quantity is expressed in whatever units are used to designate money—talents, shekels, pounds, pesos, euros, dollars, yen, and so on. The real quantity, by comparison, is expressed in terms of the volume of goods and services that the money will purchase. According to the quantity theory of money, what ultimately matters to holders of money is the real rather than the nominal quantity of money. If this is so, then—no matter what factors may determine the nominal quantity of money—it is the holders of money who determine the real quantity and, in the process, also determine the price level.

An illustration of the quantity theory

      In the following example, the quantity of money in existence in a hypothetical community is $1 million, and the total income of the community is $10 million per year. On average, each member of the community holds an amount of money equal in value to one-tenth of a year's income, or to 5.2 weeks' income. Put differently, the income velocity of circulation is equal to 10 per year; that is, each $1 on average is paid out 10 times a year. (For the sake of simplicity there are no business enterprises in this example; the members of the community buy and sell services from and to one another.)

      Now assume, in the case of this example, that the quantity of money in this community is somehow doubled, but in such a way that no one expects the quantity to change again. All members of the community regard themselves as better off. Each now has 10.4 weeks' income in the form of cash instead of the previous 5.2 weeks'. If everyone were to hold onto the extra cash, nothing further would happen. But experience dictates that people will try to spend it to reduce the amount of wealth held as money. Because this is an example of a closed community, one person's expenditure, however, becomes another person's income. All the people together cannot spend more than all the people receive. The attempt of each to do so is bound to be frustrated. In the attempt to spend more than they receive, people will simultaneously try to buy more of various services from each other and to sell less. To induce others to sell, they will offer higher prices; to induce others not to buy, they will ask higher prices. Whether the quantity sold goes up or down depends on whether the attempt to buy more is stronger or weaker than the attempt to sell less. But in either case total spending is sure to go up and so are total income and prices paid. When income has doubled, to $20 million, the amount of money in existence will again be equal in value to 5.2 weeks' income. The community will have succeeded in reducing its real cash balances to their former level, not by reducing nominal balances but by raising prices and the money value of incomes. The process of adjustment may not be smooth—spending may go too far and leave people with real balances that are too small, requiring a subsequent fall in the price level—but the final position will tend toward a doubling of prices, and the previous real flows of services will be resumed with no one any better off than before the new money was distributed.

      This simple example embodies three of the most basic principles of monetary theory: (1) the central distinction between the nominal and the real quantity of money (because to each individual separately—in this hypothetical example and in the real world—it looks as if income is outside personal control, but each individual can determine how much cash to hold); (2) the equally crucial contrast between the alternatives open to the individual and to the community as a whole (because for the community as a whole, the total amount of cash is fixed, but the community is able to determine the size of its income in dollars); and (3) the importance of attempts (that is to say, the collective attempt of people to spend more than they receive, even though doomed to frustration, because this ultimately raises total nominal expenditures and receipts).

Characteristics of monetary changes

      These principles were the building blocks for ideas about the transmission of monetary changes that developed beginning in the 18th century. Some of the main propositions relating to the transmission of monetary changes are:

● The growth rate of the quantity of money is consistently, though not precisely, related to the growth rate of nominal income. That is, if the quantity of money grows rapidly, so will nominal income, and vice versa. Although the velocity of circulation is not constant, it is relatively predictable.

● This relation is not obvious, mainly because it takes time for changes in monetary growth to affect income.

● On the average, a change in the rate of monetary growth produces a change in the rate of growth of nominal income six to nine months later. But this is an average.

● If the rate of monetary growth is reduced, then about six to nine months later the rate of growth of nominal income and also of physical output will decline, but the rate of increase in price will be affected very little. There will be downward pressure on prices only as a gap emerges between actual and potential output.

● The effect on prices comes on the average about a year after the effect on nominal income and output, so that the total delay between a change in monetary growth and a change in the rate of inflation averages roughly two years.

● The above relationships are variable. There is many a slip between the monetary change and the income change.

● Monetary changes affect output only in the short run—though “short run” may mean three to five years. In the longer run the rate of monetary growth affects only prices. What happens to output in the long run depends on such “real” factors as the enterprise, ingenuity, and industry of the people; the extent of thrift; the structure of industry and government; the rule of law; the relations among nations; and so on.

● It follows that inflation—a sustained increase in the rate of price change—cannot occur without a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output. There are, of course, many possible reasons for monetary growth—from gold discoveries to the manner in which government spending is financed and even the manner in which private spending is financed. The price level may rise or fall for other reasons, too, such as changes in productivity. These produce one-time changes, however—not sustained rates of change.

● Government spending may or may not be inflationary. It will be inflationary if it is financed by creating money—that is, by printing currency or creating bank deposits—and if the resultant rate of monetary growth exceeds the rate of growth of output. If it is financed by taxes or by borrowing from the public, the main effect is that the government spends the funds instead of someone else.

● One of the most difficult things to explain is the way in which a change in the quantity of money affects income. Generally, the initial effect is not on income at all but on the prices of existing assets (bonds, equities, houses, and other physical capital). An increased rate of monetary growth raises the amount of cash people (or businesses) have relative to other assets. The holders of the excess cash will try to correct this imbalance by buying other assets. But one person's spending is another's receipts. All the people together cannot change the amount of cash all hold—only the monetary authorities can do that. Their attempts will tend, however, to raise the prices of assets and to reduce interest rates. These changes will in turn encourage spending to produce new assets. Thus the initial effect on balance sheets is translated into an effect on income and spending. In this connection many economists emphasize such assets as durable consumer goods and other real property, and they regard market interest rates as only a small part of the whole complex of relevant rates.

● One important feature of this mechanism is that a change in monetary growth affects interest rates in one direction at the outset and in the opposite direction later on. More rapid monetary growth at first tends to lower interest rates. But later on, as it raises spending and stimulates price inflation, it also produces a rise in the demand for loans that will tend to raise nominal interest rates. Taking the opposite case, a slower rate of monetary growth at first raises interest rates, but later on, as it reduces spending and price inflation, it lowers interest rates. This inconsistent relation between the quantity of money and interest rates explains why interest rates are often a misleading guide to monetary policy.

● These propositions clearly imply that monetary policy is important and that what is most important about monetary policy is its effect on the quantity of money, not on bank credit or total credit or interest rates. Wide swings in the rate of change of the quantity of money are evidently destabilizing and should be avoided. Beyond this, different economists draw different conclusions. Some conclude that the monetary authorities should make deliberate changes in the rate of monetary growth in order to offset other forces making for instability; these changes should be gradual and small and make allowance for the lags involved. Others maintain that not enough is known about the relations between changes in the quantity of money and in prices and output to assure that a discretionary monetary policy will do good rather than harm. They believe that a wiser policy would be simply to have the quantity of money grow at a steady rate over time. Most central banks now set a short-term interest rate target and adjust it frequently. Some also set an inflation target to be achieved over several years, and they adjust the interest rate to keep inflation near the target.

● Countries that choose to control domestic prices must allow their exchange rates to float. The central bank or monetary authority cannot control both interest rates and money stock or both money and the exchange rate. It must choose one of the three.

● If the central bank fixes the exchange rate and permits capital to flow in and out freely, it leaves control of money to external forces and must accept the rate of inflation consistent with its exchange rate.

Conclusion

      No other subject in economics has been studied longer or more intensively than the subject of money. The result is a vast amount of documented experience and a well-developed body of theoretical analysis. The extent to which the students of monetary problems agree in their basic conclusions is concealed by the tendency of laypersons to exaggerate their differences. But even among professional economists there remain important disagreements, centring mainly on empirical judgments about the stability and form of some of the relations between money and other economic phenomena.

Milton Friedman Allan H. Meltzer

Additional Reading

Works on various aspects of monetary history include Phillip Cagan, “The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation,” in Milton Friedman (ed.), Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (1956, reissued 1973); Paul Einzig, Primitive Money in Its Ethnological, Historical, and Economic Aspects, 2nd ed. rev. (1966); Albert E. Feavearyear, The Pound Sterling: A History of English Money, 2nd ed. (1963); Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz, A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (1963, reissued 1993), and Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom (1982); and Allan H. Meltzer, A History of the Federal Reserve, 1 vol. (2002– ).Useful readings in monetary theory, of varying levels of difficulty, include John Maynard Keynes, A Treatise on Money, 2 vol. (1930, reprinted 1976); Don Patinkin, Money, Interest, and Prices: An Integration of Monetary and Value Theory, 2nd ed. (1989); Dennis Holme Robertson, Money, new ed. (1959, reissued 1966); Karl Brunner and Allan H. Meltzer, Money and the Economy: Issues in Monetary Analysis (1993, reissued 1997); Jacob Viner, Studies in the Theory of International Trade (1937, reissued 1975); Michael D. Bordo and Anna Jacobson Schwartz (eds.), A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821–1931 (1984); David E.W. Laidler, The Demand for Money: Theories and Evidence, 4th ed. (1993); Bennett T. McCallum, Monetary Economics: Theory and Policy (1989); and Irving Fisher, The Purchasing Power of Money, new ed. (1931, reissued 1997), a classic work on the velocity of money.Milton Friedman Allan H. Meltzer

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